Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

A comparison of conditional predictive ability of implied volatility and realized measures in forecasting volatility

In a conditional predictive ability test framework, we investigate whether market factors influence the relative conditional predictive ability of realized measures (RMs) and implied volatility (IV), which is able to examine the asynchronism in their forecasting accuracy, and further analyze their unconditional forecasting performance for volatility forecast. Our results show that the asynchronism can be detected significantly and is strongly related to certain market factors, and the comparison between RMs and IV on average forecast performance is more efficient than previous studies. Finally, we use the factors to extend the empirical similarity (ES) approach for combination of forecasts derived from RMs and IV.     

基于频率的Read Mapping种子选择算法

选择具有最低频率的最优种子是一个复杂的计算问题,往往需要很长时间.提出了一种read的基于频率的合并种子选择算法(FMSS),该算法能够高效地选择接近最优的种子集合,可用于改善现有映射工具的性能.实验对比了平均种子选择方法和当前最优的种子选择策略(OSS,optimal seed solver),结果显示FMSS算法能够用很少的时间代价给出接近OSS的最优种子集合,这表明FMSS算法可集成到现有映射工具中用于处理更大规模的read mapping问题.     

从传统徽派家具看当代地域特色生态家具的设计开发

对传统徽派家具的特点进行解读,探讨了地域特色生态家具的发展方向,提出了实现当代地域特色家具的生态设计理念应当采取的途径和策略。     

海冰水不同盐含量处理对棉花、小麦和玉米种子萌发影响

实验采用盐的质量分数w(盐)分别为1,3,5,7,9 g.kg-1的海冰水及纯水对照处理棉花(GoddypiumhirdutumL.)、小麦(Triticum aestivumL.)和玉米(ZeamaysL.)3种作物种子,每发芽盒50粒,置自控培养箱内萌发7 d.定时观测记录种子发芽数、发芽势、发芽指数、活力指数、芽长、根长.结果表明:在海冰水盐分胁迫下,棉花、小麦、玉米种子的相对发芽率、相对发芽指数均随w(盐)增加呈下降趋势;在w(盐)=1~9 g.kg-1的处理范围内,3种作物的种子发芽率均高于50%.但3种种子根芽抑制指数差异显著,棉花在w(盐)=1~9 g.kg-1范围内,根芽抑制指数变幅不大,承受能力最强,而对玉米,小麦来说,w(盐)=5 g.kg-1处理是个界限,当w(盐)≥5 g.kg-1时,小麦玉米的根、芽生长明显受到抑制.因此海冰水作为农业灌溉水源时,棉花可以作为该区域内首选的经济耐盐作物予以广泛种植,但应适当考虑加大播种量,同时严格控制海冰灌溉水的w(盐).     

慢跑鞋的足底压强分析与功能评价

采用德国Novel公司的Pedar鞋垫式(in-sole)足底压力测量系统,对6款适合于健身长跑和中长跑运动员训练或公路比赛所穿的慢跑鞋和1款体操鞋(模拟赤足状态)进行3个速度下的足底压强测量.通过步态周期(TGC)、最大地面反作用力(Fmax)、最大足底压强(pmax)、力量-时间积分值(∫Fdt)以及压强-时间积分值(∫pdt)等参数的分析,对各款运动鞋的功能特性进行了初步评价,建立了初步的评价标准.     

原始物理问题——培养中学生批判性思维的新途径

批判性思维在科学发展及人们的学习生活中都发挥着极其重要的作用。因此,培养学生的批判性思维就成了当今教学的一大要务。立足于协同学理论,以批判性思维培养的途径为契机,着重探索了原始物理问题在中学生批判性思维发展中所发挥的作用,并结合原始物理问题自身特点及相应的表征层次,从批判精神和批判性思维技能两个维度进行了论证。     

对高中物理比值定义法和控制变量法的再思考

针对高中物理教学中控制变量法滥用的现状,通过比值定义法和控制变量法在比较形式、认知路径及思维方法三个方面的对比研究的基础上,厘清它们的适用范围与教育价值,为科学方法教育的稳步推进提供参考。     

基于DEM的青龙河流域数字河网提取

简单叙述了流域河网提取的两种办法,并以ArcGIS为操作平台,介绍了基于坡面径流漫流模型的数字河网提取原理和方法,其流程可简单分为:DEM的预处理、水流流向的确定、汇流累积的计算以及河网生成。该文基于SRTM DEM数据以青龙河水域为研究对象进行流域特征信息提取,提取结果与国家河网数据基本吻合,并就不同阈值划分下的河网进行比较。     

装配化门洞式膺架体系设计

文章介绍了一种应用于现浇梁施工的装配化门洞式膺架体系的设计思路,它实现了基础、立柱钢管与支撑结构、柱顶分配梁、落架装置、承重主梁等膺架主要部件的标准化、模块化和装配化,提高了现浇梁承重支架施工的工效和周转利用率,减少了工程废弃物,节能环保,取得了较好的经济效益和社会效益.