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以华北地区 (33°~ 4 3°N ,10 9°~ 12 4°E)地震为例 ,用Gutenberg -Richter公式研究了地震均匀分布情况。结果表明 :自 1970年到 2 0 0 1年以来 ,本地区 2 0≤M <4 0的地震偏少、 4 0≤M <6 0的地震偏多、 6 0≤M<7 0的地震偏少、M≥ 7 0的地震偏多 ;然后择其将导致本地区较大社会影响、人员伤亡、经济损失的偏少地震——— 6 0≤M <7 0级地震进行灰色理论GM模型预测。通过上面的应用 ,使两理论优点在地震预测中得到结合 ,地震预测更有的放矢 ,预测结果更可信、更有效。 相似文献
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GPS揭示的现今地壳运动与地震前兆特征 总被引:10,自引:8,他引:2
利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”产出的GPS观测资料,采用球坐标系下非连续变形算法对资源进行计算,以此为基础,对我国大陆地块及其边界带运动与形变进行了分析。对GPS基准站的连续观测序列采用小波变换进行分解变换,分析了部分震例,探讨了从GPS连续观测序列提取地震前兆的方法。初步取得两点认识:(1)7级以上的大地震主要发生在走滑运动量大的活动边界,且与高应变率地块有关,这可以作为地震中长期预测判据;(2)GPS基准站连续观测序列中的低频段,地震前6个月或稍长时段有一定的前兆异常出现,这可以作为地震中短期预测判据。 相似文献
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Wang Chunzhen Huang Hanming and Wang BiquanInstitute of Geophysics CSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1998,(3)
We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45, indicating that this method is effective for prediction. 相似文献
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Based on the method of "two-dimensional depth structure of the crust" proposed by Horiuchi et al., about 5000 arrival times of 303 local shallow earthquakes recorded by the Beijing Seismographic Network from 1990 ~ 1993 are used to investigate the depth distribution of Moho discontinuity beneath Beijing and its adjacent area. We simultaneously determined the hypocenter parameters and P- and S-wave station corrections. The data of the North China Network were also investigated. The results are as follows: (1) The depth distribution of Moho discontinuity becomes shallower from the northwest to the southeast, i.e., in Zhangjiakou area, the Moho discontinuity is located at a depth range from 40~42 km. In the Beijing area, it is 36~39 km. However, at the eastern and southeastern part of this area, it is only 28-30 km and 30~32 km, respectively. (2) Beneath the Tangshan area, there is another elliptic interface shallower than the Moho discontinuity. Separately, its major and minor axis is approximately along 相似文献
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The statistical mechanics of earthquakes adopts the concepts and methodology of statistical mechanics, especially the theory of critical phenomena, in studying the preparation, initiation, propagation and healing of earthquake rupture, which forms a new branch in the physics of seismic source in recent years. This article introduces to the fundamental concepts of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes. The introduction includes the seismic Hamiltonian, percolation model, earthquake rupture nucleation, and Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. It is pointed out that some of the statistical mechanical models of earthquakes have a sound seismological basis. There is a smooth "transition" from the "classical" theory to the "modern" theory of seismic source. 相似文献
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香山绝对点周围的局部地壳变形及其对重力测量结果的影响 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为了监视北京地区的地壳稳定性,北京测绘院对10多个基岩点和北京市区进行了多次沉降观测,结果表明香山点近10多年来高程变化只有几毫米,其重力效应可略而不计,但测点东北和东南方有两个较大的下沉区。用线积分法计算了两个局部沉降的重力效应,在沉降区中心其影响可达0.38μms^-2,但对香山点的重力效应非常小,完全可以忽略。因此得出如下结论:香山点观测到的重力变化不是地壳变形引起的。 相似文献
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中国大陆及华北地区地震资料的小波分析 总被引:15,自引:8,他引:7
基于地震活动为多尺度多活动这一观点,运用小波变换方法,以不同的小波尺度分析了中国大陆1900~2001年和华北地区1500~2001年M≥5地震的本尼奥夫应变资料,得到了各种层次地震活跃期和平静期,分析结果可信而又符合实际。对历史地震研究和地震危险性预测具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献