渭河盆地断层活动反映的第四纪构造事件初步研究

研究了渭河盆地南缘和北缘几条断裂第四纪活动性的迁移变化。利用横跨断裂的构造地层剖面 ,结合断裂上覆黄土地层的年代学研究结果 ,对断裂活动强度迁移变化的演化阶段进行了研究。结果表明 ,在大约 80～ 90万年前 ,渭河盆地南缘的临潼 -长安断裂带的活动性发生了显著变化 ,骊山山前断裂也有活动性迁移现象 ,渭南塬前断裂开始强烈活动 ,渭南塬全面抬升 ;12万年前左右 ,渭河盆地北缘的口镇 -关山断裂活动性明显减弱。该区断层活动的这些变化是对第四纪中晚期的 2次重要构造事件的反映     

3-D rheologic model of earthquake preparation (I)—Displacement field

Introduction The rock medium shows mainly elastic character under low-temperature, low-pressure and external force for short duration, yet it shows rheologic property under high-temperature, high-pressure and long-time external force. It is reasonable that the rapid earthquake generating process lasted for tens seconds is analyzed by the elastic theory. As for the earthquake generating process for hundreds or thousand years, nevertheless, the rheologic property of rock must be taken into accou…     

The Natural Probability Distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio

In this paper,the Gutenberg-Richter model is used to generate seismic events.The events that satisfy the random distribution are also generated.With those events,the natural probability distribution of Load and Unload Response Ratio(LURR),which measures quantitatively the degree of instability of a nonlinear system,is discussed.The study is based on stress energy release,which is chosen as the response of nonlinear system F3.The comparative results from the observation catalogue and generating data are also studied.It is revealed that the natural probability of LURR is mostly stable when the sample number is sufficient.The lower the natural probability of LURR,the more the precursory is information it may contain.The influence of Y3 resulting from the sample number and the magnitude range of events is also discussed.     

Extending self-organizing maps for supervised classification of remotely sensed data

An extended self-organizing map for supervised classification is proposed in this paper. Unlike other traditional SOMs, the model has an input layer, a Kohonen layer, and an output layer. The number of neurons in the input layer depends on the dimensionality of input patterns. The number of neurons in the output layer equals the number of the desired classes. The number of neurons in the Kohonen layer may be a few to several thousands, which depends on the complexity of classification problems and the classification precision. Each training sample is expressed by a pair of vectors ： an input vector and a class codebook vector. When a training sample is input into the model, Kohonen＇s competitive learning rule is applied to selecting the winning neuron from the Kohouen layer and the weight coefficients connecting all the neurons in the input layer with both the winning neuron and its neighbors in the Kohonen layer are modified to be closer to the input vector, and those connecting all the neurons around the winning neuron within a certain diameter in the Kohonen layer with all the neurons in the output layer are adjusted to be closer to the class codebook vector. If the number of training sam- ples is sufficiently large and the learning epochs iterate enough times, the model will be able to serve as a supervised classifier. The model has been tentatively applied to the supervised classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The author compared the performances of the extended SOM and BPN in remotely sensed data classification. The investigation manifests that the extended SOM is feasible for supervised classification.     

Relocation of Hypocenters in the Bohai Sea and Adjacent Areas

In this paper a method of relocating hypocenter in inhomogeneous medium is introduced.Based on the velocity from the latest results on the crust and mantle structure of the Bohai Sea and its adjacent areas,by using the data recorded in Shandong,Hebei,Beijing,and Liaoning networks around the Bohai Sea we apply the method to relocate hypocenter parameters of 598 events occurring in the Bohai Sea and its adjacent areas.The accuracy of hypocenter relocation is discussed.We present the results of events ML≥4.0 in the Bohai Sea in recent years and discussed the distribution of focal depths.     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

GPS揭示的现今地壳运动与地震前兆特征

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”产出的GPS观测资料,采用球坐标系下非连续变形算法对资源进行计算,以此为基础,对我国大陆地块及其边界带运动与形变进行了分析。对GPS基准站的连续观测序列采用小波变换进行分解变换,分析了部分震例,探讨了从GPS连续观测序列提取地震前兆的方法。初步取得两点认识：（1）7级以上的大地震主要发生在走滑运动量大的活动边界,且与高应变率地块有关,这可以作为地震中长期预测判据;（2）GPS基准站连续观测序列中的低频段,地震前6个月或稍长时段有一定的前兆异常出现,这可以作为地震中短期预测判据。     

前兆异常识别的χ~2统计检验法及其应用

阐述了采用一定时间域前兆观测值的样本分布与其背景分布形式显著性的2 统计检验法识别前兆异常的思路 ,利用云南地区 1 994～ 1 996年的部分台站的水氡观测资料 ,采用上述方法提取了前兆异常 ,并与地震的实际发生情况进行了对比 ,表明强震前震源区附近水氡具有明显的前兆异常。由于分布形式的显著性检验法对异常反映较一般方法敏感 ,并且可以不受具体的分布形式的限制 ,因此本方法在地震前兆异常识别中将发挥一定的作用