CMIP5气候模式对未来30年太阳辐射变化的预估研究

使用CMIP5中33个全球气候模式的模拟数据,选择中位数集合方案,分别在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下对2006~2050年全球所有天气条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、无云条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、相对湿度、近地层风速、近地层气温和云量的变化进行预估研究。结果表明:1)在RCP8.5情景下,气温的增温率在50°N以北地区最大,达0.12 K/a。同时北半球增温率大于南半球,陆表气温的增温率大于海表气温;2)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,中国东南部和欧洲中东部地区的地表太阳直接辐射呈现较大正趋势;3)在所选3个区域中,不同RCP情景下地表太阳辐射均呈现正趋势,其中在RCP8.5情景下法国波尔多地表太阳辐射呈现最大正趋势。     

Implementation of a CMIP-based network management system

This paper discusses the experiences of the Provisioning And Monitoring (PAM) laboratory at NYNEX Science and Technology in incorporating the Common Management Information Protocol (CMIP) and the Telecommunications Management Network (TMN) concepts into a network management system developed to manage a network of broadband ATM switches supporting a CMIP interface, as well as a legacy switching platform supporting both a proprietary interface and the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) interface. The primary focus of the discussion will be on the implementation issues pertaining to the CMIP interface and the TMN object model; in particular their complexities and the approaches used to manage that complexities while retaining their functionalities.     

西北地区陆地生态系统未来生态需水量预估EI北大核心CSCD

采用偏差校正空间分解(BCSD)法对CMIP6的5个GCMs数据进行降尺度处理,基于考虑CO_(2)浓度影响的Penman-Monteith公式与有效降水计算方法,结合单作物系数法与saxton方程,预估了中等强迫(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)气候情景下西北地区生态需水量与生态缺水量的变化。结果表明:西北地区未来生态需水量在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下分别以3.83亿、6.95亿m^(3)/a的趋势上升;21世纪末期(2070—2100年)SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下年生态需水量均值分别为5679亿、5881亿m^(3),年有效降水量均值分别为3985亿、4106亿m^(3),年生态缺水量均值分别为1732亿、1798亿m^(3);西北地区整体上处于水分亏缺状态,缺水格点占比为60.2%,主要分布在新疆北部和西部、青海中部以及陕西、甘肃、宁夏的绝大部分区域。     

An Evaluation of CMIP5 GCM Simulations over the Athabasca River Basin,Canada

Long‐term hydrological forecasting, water resources management and other climate change impacts or adaptation analysis studies on large continental river basins, for example, the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada, desire a reliable climatic projection. This usually relies on general circulation models (GCMs) in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, there is a lack of a systematic evaluation of CMIP5 GCM performances over the ARB that vary with multiple factors, for example, statistical metrics, temporal scales and spatial locations, challenging the reliability of water‐related or other studies over the ARB. For this gap to be filled, six CMIP5 GCMs, namely, IPSL‐CM5A‐LR, IPSL‐CM5A‐MR, MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM, MIROC5, GFDL‐ESM2G and GFDL‐ESM2M, and their ensemble mean are selected according to data availabilities of representative climate variables: Tmin, Tmax and Prec (TTP). Accuracies of the selected CMIP5 GCMs in reproducing TTP over the ARB are evaluated comprehensively. The ensemble mean cannot outperform any GCM in all cases in the ARB, although its overall accuracy seems to be higher in consideration of all cases. These accuracies vary with TTP, locations, metrics and scales. For instance, ESM2G shows the highest accuracies in reproducing monthly/seasonal variability and magnitudes of grid‐averaged TTP and inter‐annual variability of grid‐averaged annual means of Tmax; CM5A‐LR in multi‐year‐averaged spatial variability of TTP and magnitudes of spatially distributed multi‐year‐averaged Tmax; while the ensemble mean only in some aspects, for example, intraseasonal variability and magnitudes of TTP and inter‐annual variability and magnitudes of grid‐averaged annual means of TTP. GCMs should be systematically integrated according to accuracy variations. Multiple statistical metrics are recommended in GCM evaluations. These findings facilitate water resources systems analyses and other related studies in the ARB. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Earth System Grid Federation: An open infrastructure for access to distributed geospatial data

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF’s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL, GSI and SAML). The ESGF software stack integrates custom components (for data publishing, searching, user interface, security and messaging), developed collaboratively by the team, with popular application engines (Tomcat, Solr) available from the open source community. The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs). This paper presents ESGF as a successful example of integration of disparate open source technologies into a cohesive, wide functional system, and describes our experience in building and operating a distributed and federated infrastructure to serve the needs of the global climate science community.     

Contrasting OSI Systems Management to SNMP and TMN

OSI systems management is a set of standards forthe management of open systems. Its acceptance by theindustry has been slower than that of SNMP, due to itsrelative complexity. However, it is gathering more and more momentum due to the increasingavailability of development tool kits and also due tothe real world implementations which have followed theuse in TMN. This paper contrasts OSI systems management to SNMP and TMN. It identifies the salientcharacteristics of OSI systems management and uses themas bases for the comparison. Aspects of X.25 managementare used for illustration purpose. OSI system management is half way between SNMP and TNM. It offersmore than SNMP, but less than TMN. SNMP, OSI systemsmanagement and TMN tackle different classes ofmanagement problems. None is a panacea andinteroperability is the key issue.     

TMNF-Q3接口适配系统的研究与设计

本文介绍了TMN中两个重要的接口———F接口和Q3接口 ,以及它们之间的相互关系 ,并在此基础上对F -Q3接口适配系统进行了研究 ,提出了一个F -Q3接口适配系统模型。     

CORBA／OSI域间管理技术研究

主要针对CORBA/OSI管理技术共存的局面,探讨了CORBA/OSI域间管理的设计思想,并给出选择CORBA/CMIP网关的指导原则。     

两大网管协议──SNMP和CMIP的分析与比较

随着计算机网络规模的扩大和复杂程度的增加,一个完善的网络管理系统是计算机网络能够可靠而稳定运行的保证。ＳＮＭＰ和ＣＭＩＰ是目前使用最广泛的两大网管协议。文章从ＭＡＰ（管理应用进程）、ＭＩＢ（管理信息库）和ＮＭＰ（网络管理协议）三方面出发,比较了它们的各自特点。最后,展望了它们各自的应用前景。     

基于CORBA的综合网络管理系统

基于现有的网络环境存在异构的网络管理体系，结合分布式计算技术（CORBA），提出了一种综合网络管理系统模型，解决了异构网络管理体系集成的信息转换和协议转换问题，为进一步实现综合网络管理提供了技术途径。