Zoning for flowslide and debris flow in pyroclastic soils of Campania Region based on “infinite slope” analysis

Campania Region (Italy), one of the most densely populated areas in Europe, is probably the one with the highest risk of landslide. A large part of the region is covered by unsaturated cohesionless pyroclastic deposits subjected to rainfall-induced landslides. According to experience, these can display different features and magnitude. The most catastrophic landslides are liquefied debris flows which periodically occur on steep slopes, causing death and destruction in areas located downslope. Therefore, zoning of those areas which can be the source of liquefied debris flow is necessary. The paper reports some useful elements for zoning based on infinite slope analysis, accounting for the results of recent research on the mechanics of rainfall-induced landslides in pyroclastic soils.     

Laboratory experiments on three-dimensional deformable granular landslides on planar and conical slopes

Landslides of subaerial and submarine origin may generate tsunamis with locally extreme amplitudes and runup. While the landslides themselves are dangerous, the hazards are compounded by the generation of tsunamis along coastlines, in enclosed water bodies, and off continental shelves and islands. Tsunamis generated by three-dimensional deformable granular landslides were studied on planar and conical hill slopes in the three-dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University based on the generalized Froude similarity. A unique pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to control the kinematics and acceleration of the naturally rounded river gravel and cobble landslides to simulate broad ranges of landslide shapes and velocities along the slope. Lateral and overhead cameras are used to measure the landslide shapes and kinematics, while acoustic transducers provide the shape of the subaqueous deposits. The subaerial landslide shape is extracted from the camera images as the landslide propagates under gravity down the hill slope, and surface reconstruction of the landslide is conducted using the stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system on the conical hill slope. Subaerial landslide surface velocities are measured with a planar PIV system on the planar hill slope and stereo PIV system on the conical hill slope. The submarine deposits are characterized by the runout distances and the deposit thickness distributions. Larger cobbles are observed producing hummock type features near the maximum runout length. These unique laboratory landslide experiments serve to validate deformable landslide models as well as provide the source characteristics for tsunami generation.     

Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment of Landslides and Debris Flows of China in 2000 and 2010

Landslides and debris flows occurr in China frequently and cause disastrous losses of life and property. The risk assessment of landslides and debris flows and their spatial variations were comparatively analyzed in this paper, which has great significance for disaster prevention. This article selected 1 km×1 km grid as the assessment unit and with support of GIS technique, analyzed landslide and debris-flow risk distribution and their spatial variations from 2000 to 2010. The research results indicated that the spatial distribution of risk classes in 2000 and 2010 was obviously discrepant. Overall, taking the Heihe-Tengchong population density line as the boundary, the west of the line is mainly low risk area; the east of the line is mainly high risk area. Compared with the risk of 2000, the risk values of 2010 increased, with the high risk area and low risk area enlarged, moderate risk area reduced. The moderate risk area is the most unstable and sensitive risk area, and its risk class variation is significant. However, China is not a region with the high risk of landslide and debris-flow hazard at present. In the following next 10 years, the risk of landslides and debris flows in China will continue to increase.     

地形坡度对鄂渝地区水库型堆积层滑坡贡献率研究

堆积层滑坡是库区常见的滑坡类型之一,而地形坡度是滑坡发育的重要内因,研究地形坡度与堆积层滑坡发生概率之间的关系对水库型堆积层滑坡的危险性评价具有重要意义。以三峡库区及丹江口库区的139处堆积层滑坡为例,首先,将滑坡地形坡度以每隔5划分为一个区间,总共分为7个区间; 在此基础上,采用贡献率方法,定量研究了地形坡度分别对滑坡数量、面积、体积的贡献率; 最后,通过迭加统计,得到了不同坡度区间对滑坡发生的综合贡献率。结果表明, 15～25的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最高, 10～15及25～30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率中等,小于10及大于30的地形坡度对水库型堆积层滑坡的贡献率最小。研究结果可为具有类似地质背景的水库型堆积层滑坡危险性评估及防治规划提供参考依据。     

汶川地震极重灾区地质背景及次生斜坡灾害空间发育规律

512汶川大地震造成大量的次生斜坡灾害,本次研究区域为汶川大地震的11个重灾区,包括汶川、北川、青川、安县、平武、茂县、江油、彭州、什邡、绵竹、理县等市县。通过对重灾区航片、卫片、雷达图像的解译研究发现,重灾区次生斜坡灾害的主要灾种表现为崩塌、滑坡以及崩塌、滑坡高速运动解体形成的碎屑流（个别地方由于水的参与表现为泥石流）以及它们堵江形成的堰塞湖。研究发现地震次生斜坡灾害的发育具有明显的丛集性规律。从区域上看,次生斜坡灾害明显呈带状,沿龙门山断裂带展布,并主要受北川映秀断裂控制。各灾种的发育在不同地段发育的规模、频率差别较大。以灾害分布面积来排序,汶川县灾害面积最大,为131.55km2,其次为北川县,为45.57km2,其余9个县（市）灾害面积相差不大,均介于6~17km2,其中理县灾害面积最小,为6.25km2。各灾种的发育在不同地段发育的规模、频率差别较大。青川县、平武县灾种主要为滑坡,汶川县、茂县、安县、理县灾种主要表现崩塌转化的碎屑流,北川的主要灾种则为碎屑流,其次为滑坡,什邡、彭州、绵竹、江油等地主要灾种为崩塌。 灾种发育的这种地域性差别主要受控于地层岩性,除此而外,还与构造特征、地形地貌等因素紧密相关。研究表明:岩性对灾害种类的展布有决定性控制作用。统计发现,岩性越坚硬,崩塌、碎屑流发育率越高,滑坡则在软岩地区、较软岩地区和较坚硬区发育率最高,泥石流则在软岩地区最为发育。地形地貌对次生斜坡灾害的发育有重要影响,统计表明,崩塌、碎屑流以及泥石流在1200～2000m坡段范围内发育率最高,其次为800～1200m坡段;而滑坡则在800～1200m坡段范围发育率最高。对坡度而言,除11~20坡度范围外,崩塌和碎屑流的发育率总体具有随坡度增高而增大的特点;而滑坡和泥石流的发育率呈现典型的单峰特征,在1~20范围内发育率最大。坡向对地震次生斜坡灾害的发育影响不明显。 地震次生斜坡灾害的发育规律表明,地震斜坡灾害的发生主要受控于活动构造本身,并沿活动构造呈带状展布,同时受场地条件如岩性、地形地貌等因素的强烈控制。     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

Landslide susceptibility revealed by LIDAR imagery and historical records,Seattle, Washington

Light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data were used to visually map landslides, headscarps, and denuded slopes in Seattle, Washington. Four times more landslides were mapped than by previous efforts that used aerial photographs. The mapped landforms (landslides, headscarps, and denuded slopes) were created by many individual landslides. The spatial distribution of mapped landforms and 1308 historical landslides show that historical landslide activity has been concentrated on the mapped landforms, and that most of the landslide activity that created the landforms was prehistoric. Thus, the spatial densities of historical landslides on the landforms provide approximations of the landforms' relative susceptibilities to future landsliding. Historical landslide characteristics appear to be closely related to landform type so relative susceptibilities were determined for landslides with various characteristics. No strong relations were identified between stratigraphy and landslide occurrence; however, landslide characteristics and slope morphology appear to be related to stratigraphic conditions.Human activity is responsible for causing about 80% of historical Seattle landslides. The distribution of mapped landforms and human-caused landslides suggests the probable characteristics of future human-caused landslides on each of the landforms. The distribution of mapped landforms and historical landslides suggests that erosion of slope-toes by surface water has been a necessary condition for causing Seattle landslides. Human activity has largely arrested this erosion, which implies that landslide activity will decrease with time as hillsides naturally stabilize. However, evaluation of glacial-age analogs of areas of recent slope-toe erosion suggests that landslide activity in Seattle will continue for the foreseeable future.     

History of landslide susceptibility and a chorology of landslide-prone areas in the Western Ghats of Kerala,India

Kerala is the third most densely populated state in India. It is a narrow strip of land, of which 47% is occupied by the most prominent orographic feature of peninsular India, The Western Ghats mountain chain. The highlands of Kerala experience several types of landslides, of which debris flows are the most common. They are called “Urul Pottal” in the local vernacular. The west-facing Western Ghats scarps that runs the entire extent of the mountain system is the most prone physiographic unit for landslides. The highlands of the region experience an annual average rainfall as high as 500 cm through the South-West, North-East and Pre-Monsoon showers. A survey of ancient documents and early news papers indicates a reduced rate of slope instability in the past. The processes leading to landslides were accelerated by anthropogenic disturbances such as deforestation since the early 18th century, terracing and obstruction of ephemeral streams and cultivation of crops lacking capability to add root cohesion in steep slopes. The events have become more destructive given the increasing vulnerability of population and property. Majority of mass movements have occurred in hill slopes >20° along the Western Ghats scarps, the only exception being the coastal cliffs. Studies conducted in the state indicates that prolonged and intense rainfall or more particularly a combination of the two and the resultant pore pressure variations are the most important trigger of landslides. The initiation zone of most of the landslides was typical hollows generally having degraded natural vegetation. A survey of post-landslide investigation and news paper reports enabled the identification of 29 major landslide events in the state. All except one of the 14 districts in the state are prone to landslides. Wayanad and Kozhikode districts are prone to deep seated landslides, while Idukki and Kottayam are prone to shallow landslides.     

Statistical Analysis of Landslide Events in Central America and their Run-out Distance

Statistical analyses of landslide deposits from similar areas provide information on dynamics and rheology, and are the basis for empirical relationships for the prediction of future events. In Central America landslides represent an important threat in both volcanic and non-volcanic areas. Data, mainly from 348 landslides in Nicaragua, and 19 in other Central American countries have been analyzed to describe landslide characteristics and to search for possible correlations and empirical relationships. The mobility of a landslide, expressed as the ratio between height of fall (H) and run-out distance (L) as a function of the volume and height of fall; and the relationship between the height of fall and run-out distance were studied for rock falls, slides, debris flows and debris avalanches. The data show differences in run-out distance and landslide mobility among different types of landslides and between debris flows in volcanic and non-volcanic areas. The new Central American data add to and seem consistent with data published from other regions. Studies combining field observations and empirical relationships with laboratory studies and numerical simulations will help in the development of more reliable empirical equations for the prediction of landslide run-out, with applications to hazard zonation and design of optimal risk mitigation measures.     

The relationship between geology and rock weathering on the rock instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road corridor, Central Nepal Himalaya

The present study was conducted along the Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding region that is most affected by landslide and related mass-movement phenomena. The main rock types in the study area are limestone, dolomite, slate, phyllite, quartzite and amphibolites of Lesser Himalaya, sandstone, mudstone and conglomerates of Siwaliks and Holocene Deposits. Due to the important role of geology and rock weathering in the instabilities, an attempt has been made to understand the relationship between these phenomena. Consequently, landslides of the road section and its surrounding region have been assessed using remote sensing, Geographical information systems and multiple field visits. A landslide inventory map was prepared and comprising 275 landslides. Nine landslides representing the whole area were selected for detailed studies. Field surveys, integrated with laboratory tests, were used as the main criteria for determining the weathering zones in the landslide area. From the overall study, it is seen that large and complex landslides are related to deep rock weathering followed by the intervention of geological structures as faults, joints and fractures. Rotational types of landslides are observed in highly weathered rocks, where the dip direction of the foliation plane together with the rock weathering plays a principle role. Shallow landslides are developed in the slope covered by residual soil or colluviums. The rock is rather fresh below these covers. Some shallow landslides (rock topples) are related to the attitude of the foliation plane and are generally observed in fresh rocks. Debris slides and debris flows occur in colluviums or residual soil-covered slopes. In few instances, they are also related to the rock fall occurring at higher slopes. The materials from the rock fall are mixed with the colluviums and other materials lying on the slope downhill and flow as debris flow. Rock falls are mainly related to the joint pattern and the slope angle. They are found in less-weathered rocks. From all these, it is concluded that the rock weathering followed by geological structures has prominent role in the rock slope instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding regions.     

Morphological methods and dynamic modelling in landslide hazard assessment of the Campania Apennine carbonate slope

Landslide risk of the Campanian carbonate slopes covered by pyroclastic deposits is mainly connected with the occurrence of high-velocity debris avalanches and debris flows. Analyses show that flows initiate as small translational slides in the pyroclastics. The failure process is controlled by the interaction of both natural and human-induced factors. Geomorphological settings play a decisive role in locating the source failures. Therefore, the crucial aspects in landslide hazard and risk assessment are: (a) recognise the geomorphological control factors, (b) determine parameters defining landslide intensity (velocity, volume, depth of deposit) and (c) predict landslide runout distance. An approach combining geomorphology and numerical analysis has been adopted in the work reported here. Potential future landslide intensity scenarios are simulated predicting the runout behaviour of potential instabilities by using a dynamic model previously calibrated by back-analysing observed events of similar scale and type. The selected area is a sector of the Avella Mountains having the same geomorphological environment as the 1998 Sarno landslides (Campania, Southern Italy).     

低山丘陵区典型滑坡-泥石流链生灾害特征与成灾机理

2019年6月10—13日,龙川县发生持续强降雨,导致全县境内发生大量滑坡、泥石流灾害,贝岭镇米贝村是三个重灾区之一。本文以贝岭镇米贝村6号沟发生的滑坡-泥石流链生灾害为研究对象,在野外精细化调查测量基础上,结合数值模拟分析与计算,对链生灾害特征与成灾机理展开研究。研究发现:①6号沟内共发育7处浅层土质小型滑坡,仅3号滑坡体与部分6号滑坡体转化为泥石流,构成泥石流主要物源,其余滑坡未构成持续性影响;②持续降雨下渗,坡体由非饱和向饱和状态转变,坡表形成连续饱和区,孔隙水压力的增加与孔隙水的软化促使土体强度降低,加之坡体饱和自重的增大,斜坡发生浅表层失稳破坏;③降雨的持续下渗与支沟沟源“漏斗状”地形下的地表汇水快速增大滑坡松散堆积体内的含水率,促使其物理性质发生变化,在重力势能下呈流态状启动、运动转化为泥石流。降雨结构影响滑坡-泥石流链生过程,前期降雨引发滑坡、后期降雨启动形成泥石流,滑坡与泥石流的发生表现出阶段性特征。研究成果有助于指导当地政府进一步开展滑坡-泥石流链生灾害的防灾减灾工作,也为该地区未来区域预警研究工作提供理论支撑。     

Mechanisms and runout characteristics of the rainfall-triggered debris flow in Xiaojiagou in Sichuan Province, China

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake induced a large number of landslides, and a vast amount of loose landslide materials deposited on steep hill slopes or in channels. Such loose materials can become sources of deadly debris flows once triggered by storms. On 13 August 2010, a storm swept Yingxiu and its vicinity, triggering a catastrophic debris flow with a volume of 1.17?million?m³ in Xiaojiagou Ravine. The debris flow buried 1,100?m of road, blocked a river and formed a debris flow barrier lake. A detailed field study was conducted to understand the initiation mechanisms and runout characteristics of this debris flow. Two types of debris flows are identified, namely hill-slope debris flow and channelized debris flow. The hill-slope debris flow was triggered in the forms of firehose effect, rilling and landsliding, whereas the channelized debris flow was triggered in the form of channel-bed failure. This debris flow was a water?Crock flow since most particles were gravel, cobble or larger rocks and the fraction of silt and clay was less than 2%. Grain contact friction, pore-pressure effects and inertial grain collision were the three most important physical interactions within the debris flow. Such interactions yielded a smaller runout distance (593?m) compared with those of mud?Crock flows of similar size.     

Deterministic Landslide Risk Assessment at a Past Landslide Site

The slope failure and landslide hazard will possess the same properties within a range including the same engineering geological conditions. To assess the landslide risk of a mountainous area, the study of landslides previously having occurred is very important to evaluate the landslide risk around the area in which they took place. Based on the study of the mechanism of a previous landslide recorded in Kumamoto, Japan, this study initially proposes mechanical parameters for evaluating the landslide hazard using a 3D slope stability method. For each slope unit in the study area, the critical slip surface, which reveals the minimum safety factor of a slope, can be obtained. The affected streams and range of possible landslide masses are analyzed based on the debris flow simulation. This is initially applied to simulate the past landslide event and the result shows the landslide-deduced debris flow effectively re-displayed. Overlayered with layers of infrastructure in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this risk map indicates which houses and road sections remain in dangerous areas.     

Soil slope instability along a strategic road corridor in Meghalaya,north-eastern India

The road widening carried out along National Highway-40, a strategic road corridor of north-eastern India, to ease the traffic snarls for geopolitical developments in the region. The newly exposed in situ soil slopes along National Highway-40 are on the verge of shear instability, and slope failures occur due to heavy earth cuttings. As a consequence, the road corridor witnesses several geotechnical failures during rainy seasons. The blasting activities initiated and propagated the soil creeps and falls resulting road blockades. Even a small rain shower is enough to undercut and uproot trees and transport boulders and surrounding earth materials up to the corridor. Besides, landslides are also prone to damage demographic areas and settling house units, thus invites for preventive measures towards hill slope management as these slopes make the highway corridor unsafe to the commuters. Therefore, the present study is aimed to investigate the stability of the hill cut soil slopes and to suggest possible stabilisation measures. The study also highlighted that steep soil slopes with high moisture content are prone to landslides mainly due to infiltration, and water flows on the slopes during high and prolonged rainfall. The highly plastic soils rich in silt and clay size particles with high moisture content cause soil/debris slide and flow. The numerical modelling of slopes using Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua (FLAC) codes (version 4.0) indicates failures in excavated high angle cut slopes. The re-excavation and benching of unstable slopes with geonets or bionets or jute matting to promote vegetation growth were suggested as stabilisation measures by field investigation, laboratory studies and numerical analysis of slopes.     

A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes

The probability of occurrence is one of the key components of the risk equation. To assess this probability in landslide risk analysis, two different approaches have been traditionally used. In the first one, the occurrence of landslides is obtained by computing the probability of failure of a slope (or the reactivation of existing landslides). In the second one, which is the objective of this paper, the probability is obtained by means of the statistical analysis of past landslide events, specifically by the assessment of the past landslide frequency. In its turn, the temporal frequency of landslides may be determined based on the occurrence of landslides or from the recurrence of the landslide triggering events over a regional extent. Hazard assessment using frequency of landslides, which may be taken either individually or collectively, requires complete records of landslide events, which is difficult in some areas. Its main advantage is that it may be easily implemented for zoning. Frequency assessed from the recurrence of landslide triggers, does not require landslide series but it is necessary to establish reliable relations between the trigger, its magnitude and the occurrence of the landslides. The frequency of the landslide triggers can be directly used for landslide zoning. However, because it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of the potential landslides, it has to be combined with landslide susceptibility (spatial probability analysis) to perform landslide hazard zoning. Both the scale of work and availability of data affect the results of the landslide frequency and restrict the spatial resolution of frequency zoning as well. Magnitude–frequency relationships are fundamental elements for the quantitative assessment of both hazard and risk.     

四川九寨沟Ms7.0级地震滑坡应急快速评估

基于地震滑坡危险性评估的Newmark累积位移模型,利用震前获取的震区地形数据、区域地质资料,结合地震动近实时获取技术,开展了四川九寨沟M_s7.0级地震诱发滑坡的应急快速评估。地震滑坡位移分析结果表明,同震滑坡活动的中—高强度区分布在断层两侧宽约4 km的带状区域内,整体沿北西方向延伸。其中,极震区的丰雪塘、日则和干海子等城镇驻地及附近道路的滑坡强度相对较高;震前、震后影像对比表明九寨沟地震诱发的滑坡类型以浅表型碎屑流及小规模崩塌为主,且同震碎屑流多是在震前已有碎屑流的基础上进一步活动扩展而来,震后汛期泥石流隐患也不容忽视;通过典型地区滑坡位移分析结果与震前、震后影像对比,表明滑坡位移分析结果能够较好的反映同震滑坡的宏观分布特征,但在场地尺度上吻合程度欠佳,后续将通过提升岩性和地形等数据质量进行改进。研究结果可为灾情研判提供宝贵信息,对提高灾害应急救援效率具有重要意义。     

Causes of large-scale landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of central Nepal

Geologically and tectonically active Himalayan Range is characterized by highly elevated mountains and deep river valleys. Because of steep mountain slopes, and dynamic geological conditions, large-scale landslides are very common in Lesser and Higher Himalayan zones of Nepal Himalaya. Slopes along the major highways of central Nepal namely Prithvi Highway, Narayangadh-Mugling Road and Tribhuvan Highway are considered in this study of large-scale landslides. Geologically, the highways in consideration pass through crushed and jointed Kathmandu Nappe affected by numerous faults and folds. The relict large-scale landslides have been contributing to debris flows and slides along the highways. Most of the slope failures are mainly bechanced in geological formations consisting phyllite, schist and gneiss. Laboratory test on the soil samples collected from the failure zones and field investigation suggested significant hydrothermal alteration in the area. The substantial hydrothermal alteration in the Lesser Himalaya during advancement of the Main Central Thrust (MCT) and thereby clay mineralization in sliding zones of large-scale landslide are the main causes of large-scale landslides in the highways of central Nepal. This research also suggests that large-scale landslides are the major cause of slope failure during monsoon in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. Similarly, hydrothermal alteration is also significant in failure zone of the large-scale landslides. For the sustainable road maintenance in Nepal, it is of utmost importance to study the nature of sliding zones of large-scale landslides along the highways and their role to cause debris flows and slides during monsoon period.     

Small landslide types and controls in glacial deposits: Lower Skagit river drainage,northern cascade range,Washington

Observations of 167 small, shallow landslides spanning a 22-year period on extensively logged slopes of Quaternary terraces in the lower Skagit and Baker Valleys, Washington, shows that there is a relationship between the common slope failures in this area and the slope angle, stratigraphy, and logging practices. Landslide frequency increases upvalley, as do mean annual precipitation and the frequency of perched water tables. Debris slides are most common, occur on steep slopes (>50%) composed of sand and gravel, and are most abundant in areas previously logged by the clear—cut method. Debris flows occur on shallower slopes (>30%) where the stratigraphy leads to perched water tables. Debris flows larger than 600 m² in area appear to be unrelated to logging practices. Slump flows, described here for the first time, occur on similar slope angles and stratigraphic situations as debris flows. They differ mainly by the presence of semiconsolidated material, usually till, at the slide head. Where till is breached—commonly along road cuts—water infiltration is increased, saturating underlying fine-grained deposits, which then fail by debris flowage. Secondary slumping of till happens when the slope steepens during debris flow failure. Small landslides surrounding Lake Shannon may contribute up to 80% of the total particulate matter yield to the fluvial system at present, increasing lake sedimentation by a rate of 5 mm/yr.     

基于Newmark模型的天水市北山地震黄土滑坡危险性评价

本文通过天水市北山野外调查和室内分析相结合的方法,开展基于Newmark累积位移法的地震黄土滑坡危险性分析。分析了研究区的孕灾背景,结合现有滑坡和不稳定斜坡的调查数据,在充分考虑了震源方位角和斜坡坡向角的角度关系基础上,对优势坡向角和劣势坡向角下的斜坡易发性进行分析计算,然后用回归方程求出PGA为0.3 g时斜坡的累积位移,最后计算出斜坡在地震荷载下的失稳概率。在此基础上,对北山进行地震黄土滑坡的危险性评价。分析结果表明:在Newmark模型的地震黄土滑坡危险性评估中引入斜坡坡向角和震源方位角关系,有利于提高小区域(大比例尺)风险评估的准确性。