Depth variation of seismic source scaling relations: implications for earthquake hazard in southeastern Australia

Advances in earthquake data acquisition and processing techniques have allowed for improved quantification of source parameters for local Australian earthquakes. Until recently, only hypocentral locations and local magnitudes (M_L) had been determined routinely, with little attention given to the inversion of additional source parameters. The present study uses these new source data (e.g. seismic moment, stress drop, source dimensions) to further extend our understanding of seismicity and the continental stress regime of the Australian landmass and its peripheral regions.

Earthquake activity within Australia is typically low, and the proportion of small to large events (i.e. the b value) is also low. It is observed that average stress drops for southeastern Australian earthquakes appear to increase with seismic moment to relatively high levels, up to approximately 10 MPa for M_L 5.0 earthquakes. This is thought to be indicative of high compressive crustal stress, coupled with strong rocks and fault asperities. Furthermore, the data indicates that shallow focus earthquakes (shallower than 6 km) appear to produce lower than average stress drops than deeper earthquakes (between 6 and 20 km) with similar moment.

Recurrence estimates were obtained for a discrete seismogenic zone in southeastern Australia. Decreasing b values with increasing focal depth for this zone indicate that larger earthquakes (with high stress drops) tend to occur deeper in the crust. This may offer an explanation for the apparent increase of stress drop with hypocentral depth. Consequently, earthquake hazard estimates that assume a uniform Gutenburg–Richter distribution with depth (i.e. constant b value) may be too conservative and therefore slightly overestimate seismic hazard for surface sites in southeastern Australia.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Horn of Africa based on seismotectonic regionalisation

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the Horn of Africa is presented. Our seismicity database consists of a revised and up-to-date regional catalogue compiled from different agencies, checked for completeness with respect to time and homogenized with respect to magnitude (M_s). The seismic source zones are based on our present day knowledge of the regional seismotectonics. Among the results we present regional hazard maps for 0.01 annual probability for intensity and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and hazard curves and response spectra for six economical significant sites within the region. The model uncertainties with respect to seismicity are analysed in a novel approach and form part of a sensitivity analysis that quantifies our PSHA modelling uncertainties.

For 0.01 annual probability we find randomly oriented horizontal PGA that exceed just 0.2 g and MM-scale intensity VIII in the Afar depression and southern Sudan. Uncertainties amount to 20% g PGA in some cases, mainly due to attenuation uncertainties. Intensity uncertainties seldom exceed 0.5 intensity units. Relatively large seismic hazard is found for Djibouti (VIII for 0.01 annual probability), slightly lower for the port of Massawa (between VII and VIII for 0.01 annual probability) and low for the port of Assab (between VI and VII for 0.01 annual probability).     

Tectonic stress,seismicity, and seismic hazard in the southeastern Carpathians

Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation (attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters.     

The comparison of the NDSHA, PSHA seismic hazard maps and real seismicity for the Italian territory

Rigorous and objective testing of seismic hazard assessments against the real seismic activity must become the necessary precondition for any responsible seismic risk estimation. Because seismic hazard maps seek to predict the shaking that would actually occur, the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), and the alternative ground shaking maps based on the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), are cross-compared and tested against the real seismicity for the territory of Italy. The comparison between predicted intensities and those reported for past earthquakes shows that models generally provide rather conservative estimates, except for PGA with 10 % probability of being exceeded in 50 years, which underestimates the largest earthquakes. In terms of efficiency in predicting ground shaking, measured accounting for the rate of underestimated events and for the territorial extent of areas characterized by high seismic hazard, the NDSHA maps appear to outscore the PSHA ones.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman

This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s² for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.     

Regional time-predictable modeling in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas region

The seismic characteristic of Hindukush–Pamir–Himalaya (HPH) and its vicinity is very peculiar and has experienced many widely distributed large earthquakes. Recent work on the time-dependent seismicity in the Hindukush–Pamir–Himalayas is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”, which is expressed by the relation log T=cM_p+a, where T is the inter-event time between two successive main shocks of a region and M_p is the magnitude of the preceded main shock. Parameter a is a function of the magnitude of the minimum earthquake considered and of the tectonic loading and c is positive (0.3) constant. In 90% of the cases with sufficient data, parameter c was found to be positive, which strongly supports the validity of the model. In the present study, a different approach, which assumes no prior regionalization of the area, is attempted to check the validity of the model. Nine seismic sources were defined within the considered region and the inter-event time of strong shallow main shock were determined and used for each source in an attempt at long-term prediction, which show the clustering and occurrence of at least three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5≤M_s≤7.5 giving two repeat times, satisfying the necessary and sufficient conditions of time-predictable model (TP model). Further, using the global applicability of the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, the following relations have been obtained: log T_t=0.19 M_min+0.52M_p+0.29 log m₀−10.63 and M_f=1.31M_min−0.60M_p−0.72 log m₀+21.01, where T_t is the inter-event time, measured in years; M_min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered; M_p the magnitude of preceding main shock; M_f the magnitude of the following main shock; and m₀ the moment rate in each source per year.

These relations may be used for seismic hazard assessment in the region. Based on these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the last main shock in each seismogenic source, time-dependent conditional probabilities for the occurrence of the next large (M_s≥5.5) shallow main shocks during the next 20 years as well as the magnitudes of the expected main shocks are determined.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura,south India

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.     

Seismicity, seismotectonics and seismic hazard of Italy

A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.     

Cautious neotectonic hypotheses for assessing the seismic hazard in northeastern Italy

A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values.     

Landslides and other surface effects induced by the 1997 Umbria–Marche seismic sequence

This paper both describes and discusses landslides and other ground effects induced by the September–October 1997 seismic sequence, which struck the Umbria and Marche regions (Central Italy). Three main events occurred on 26 September at 00:33 and 09:40 GMT, and 14 October with magnitude M_w equal to 5.8, 6.0 and 5.4, respectively; furthermore hundreds of minor but significant events were also recorded. The authors examined an area of some 700 km² around the epicentre (Colfiorito). Primary and secondary effects were observed, including surface faulting phenomena, landslides, ground fractures, compaction and various hydrological phenomena. Surface evidence of faulting reactivation was found along the well-known capable faults, to a total length of ca. 30 km. Landslides, which were the most recurrent among the phenomena induced, consisted mainly of rock falls and subordinately of rotational and translational slides, which were generally mobilised by the inertia forces during the seismic motion. The percentage of reactivated old landslides decreased as the distance from the epicentral zone increased; a similar decrease had been observed for the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (Southern Italy). The ground fracture distribution was consistent with the regional structural setting and the general pattern of macroseismic field. Numerous episodes of hydrological changes were observed within the most severely damaged area. All this evidence confirms the relevance of the study of ground surface effects for achieving a more complete evaluation of seismic hazard.     

地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估

作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。     

孕震构造块体与相应地震区划分方法

可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。     

Systematization of active faults for the assessment of the seismic hazard

A systematization of active faults has been developed based on the progress of scientists from the leading countries in the world in the study of seismotectonics and seismic hazard problems. It is underlain by the concept of the fault-block structure of the geological-geophysical environment governed by the interaction of differently oriented active faults, which are divided into two groups—seismogenic and nonseismogenic faults. In seismogenic fault zones, the tectonic stress accumulated is relieved by means of strong earthquakes. Nonseismogenic fault zones are characterized by creep displacement or short-term, oscillatory, and reciprocal movements, which are referred to local superintense deformations of the Earth’s crust (according to the terminology used by Yu.O. Kuz’min). For a situation when a strong earthquake happens, a subgroup of seismodistributing faults has been identified that surround the seismic source and affect the distribution of the seismic waves and, as a consequence, the pattern of the propagation of the coseismic deformations in the fault-block environment. Seismodistributing faults are divided into transit and sealing faults. Along transit faults, secondary coseismic effects (landfalls, landslides, ground fractures, liquefaction, etc) are intensified during earthquakes. In the case of sealing faults, enhancement of the coseismic effects can be observed on the disjunctive limb nearest to the epicenter, whereas, on the opposite limb, the intensity of such effects appreciably decreases. Seismogenic faults or their systems are associated with zones of earthquake source origination (ESO), which include concentrated seismicity regions. In such zones, each earthquake source is related to the evolution of a fault system. ESO zones also contain individual seismogenic sources being focuses of strong earthquakes with M of ≥5.5 in the form of ruptures, which can be graphically represented in 2D or 3D as a surface projection of the source. Depending on the type of data based on which they are identified, individual seismogenic sources are divided into geological-geophysical and macroseismic sources. The systematization presented is the theoretical basis for and the concept of the relational database that is being developed by the authors as an information system for the generation of seismotectonic GIS projects required for the subsequent analysis of the seismic hazard and the assessment of the probability of the origination of macroseismic earthquake effects in a predetermined location.     

Twenty years of paleoseismology in Italy

Italy has one of the most complete and historically extensive seismic catalogues in the World due to a unique and uninterrupted flow of written sources that have narrated its seismic history since about the end of the Iron Age. Seismic hazard studies have therefore always been mainly based upon this huge mass of data. Nevertheless, the Italian catalogue probably “lacks” many M ≥ 6.5 events, the seismogenetic structures responsible for which are characterized by recurrence times that are longer than the time span covered by our historical sources. For these reasons, and as in other countries, earthquake data that in Italy have been derived from paleoseismological studies should finally become a necessary ingredient in seismic risk assessment. Indeed, over the past 20 years, some hundred trenches have been excavated, supplying reliable and conclusive data on the recent activities of many faults. Through to many robust datings of surface fault events, these studies have provided the ages of several unknown or poorly known M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. Here, we summarize the state of the art of paleoseismology in Italy, and present a first catalogue of 56 paleoearthquakes (PCI) that occurred mainly in the past 6 kyr. The PCI integrates the historical/instrumental seismic catalogue, and extends it beyond the recurrence time of the seismogenetic faults (2000 ± 1000 yr). We feel confident that the use of the PCI will enhance future probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and thus contribute to more reliable seismic risk mitigation programs.     

2019年5月18日松原M5.1地震构造机制分析

基于区域地震台网的数字化波形资料，使用ISOLA方法对2019年5月18日吉林松原M5.1地震进行矩张量反演，研究地震的震源机制，并且收集了地震序列中M_L2.5以上地震的震源机制解，采用FMSI（focal mechanism stress inversion）方法反演震中区构造应力场。结果显示：松原M5.1地震的矩震级为4.9，矩心深度为6 km，双力偶分量为91.5%，主压应力P轴方位角、倾角分别为76°和3°，主张应力T轴方位角、倾角分别为166°和16°，震源机制解显示典型的构造地震特征；震中区构造应力场理论应力轴σ₁方位角、倾伏角分别为88.0°和0.9°，σ₂方位角、倾伏角分别为178.2°和9.6°，σ₃方位角、倾伏角分别为352.5°和80.4°，这一结果与区域构造应力场一致。推断认为区域构造应力场触发了2019年松原M5.1地震活动，地震震源机制解的北西向节面与震中区附近的第二松花江断裂现今活动性质完全一致，认为第二松花断裂可能是松原M5.1地震的发震断层。     

Variation of seismic coupling with slab detachment and upper plate structure along the western Hellenic subduction zone

The western Hellenic subduction zone is characterized by a trenchward velocity of the upper plate. In the Ionian islands segment, complete seismic coupling is achieved, as is predicted by standard plate-tectonic models in which there is no slab pull force because the slab has broken off. The moderate local seismic moment rate relates to a shallow downdip limit for the seismogenic interface. This characteristic may be attributed to the ductility of the lower crust of the upper plate, which allows a décollement between the upper crust of the overriding plate and the subducting plate. Farther south, a deeper downdip limit of the seismogenic interface is indicated by thrust-faulting earthquakes, which persist much deeper in western Crete. A correspondingly larger downdip width of this seismogenic zone is consistent with the suggested larger maximum magnitude of earthquakes here. However, since the seismic moment release rate seems to be moderate in the Peloponnese and western Crete, like in in the Ionian islands, this seismically active interface cannot maintain complete seismic coupling across its larger downdip width. A cause may be the lateral addition of overweight to the part of the slab still attached in Crete, by the free fall of its part that has broken off from the surface further north. This increased slab pull reduces the compressive normal stress across the seismogenic interface and thus causes partial seismic coupling in its shallower part. However, the width of this part may provide an additional area contributing to slip in large earthquakes, which may nucleate deeper on stick-slip parts of the interface. Hints at anomalies in structure and seismicity, which need to be resolved, may relate to the present location of the edge of the tear in the slab.     

A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain

In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco (2009), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed.     

Incorporation of directivity effect in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation of Tabriz city

Near-field ground-motion records affected by directivity may show unusual features in the signal resulting in low-frequency cycle pulses in the velocity time history. Current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is not able to predict such effects well; recent studies thus have proposed modified frameworks to incorporate pulse effect in modified PSHA. This paper attempts to carry out the seismic hazard mapping of Tabriz city according to modified and ordinary PSHA for different return periods. Tabriz, located in northwest of Iran, is situated in the vicinity of the North Tabriz Fault, which is one of the major seismogenic faults. Disaggregation results indicate that including pulse-like effects in PSHA, increases the relative contribution of close distances and small epsilons (?). Another major probable result is the high contribution of pulse periods close to spectral period. The contributions to each earthquake scenario at long-period spectral acceleration shift to larger magnitudes with including the pulse effects.     

辽宁地区主要断裂活动性和地震危险性评估

基于辽宁地区主要活动断裂的几何特征和空间展布，对1980年以来辽宁地区M_L≥2.0地震的累计频次和1900年以来M_s≥5.0地震的年发生率的空间分布及其与活动断裂构造背景关系进行研究，获得了基于地震学的辽宁省内主要断裂和构造区（带）的活动性与地震危险性的初步评估结果。辽宁地区主要断裂活动性较高的有海城河断裂、金州断裂九寨—盖州北段、朝阳—北票断裂等；辽宁地区未来3年发生M_s≥5.0地震危险性较高的断裂依次有海城河断裂、金州断裂、熊岳—庄河断裂、鸭绿江断裂及赤峰—开原断裂与柳河断裂交汇处等。在判定区域地震危险性和城市地震风险时，除了依据前兆异常的空间分布，还应充分考虑区内主要构造（断裂）的活动性与地震危险性。     

Testing a new hybrid approach to seismic hazard assessment: an application to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy)

We tested a new hybrid method for the evaluation of seismic hazard. A recently proposed fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence model of peninsular Italy suggests that the interval for which the local historical catalogue is complete is shorter than the mean recurrence time of individual large faults (1000 years), or at the most comparable. These new findings violate the fundamental assumption of historical probabilistic seismic hazard methods that the historical record is representative of the activity of all the seismogenic sources. The hybrid method we propose uses time-dependent modelling of the major earthquakes and catalogue-based historical probabilistic estimates for all minor events. We assume that the largest earthquakes are characteristic for individual discrete fault segments, model their probability of occurrence by a renewal process and compute the shaking associated with each of them with a simplified procedure. Then we calculate the probability of exceeding a given threshold of peak ground acceleration for specific sites as the aggregate probability of occurrence of large characteristic earthquakes and minor shocks. We apply the method to the Calabrian Arc (Southern Italy) performing the calculations for five major towns. The exposure to seismic hazard of Reggio Calabria, Catanzaro and Vibo Valentia, which locate close to recently activated large faults, decreases with respect to traditional time-independent estimates. On the contrary, an increase of seismic hazard is obtained for Castrovillari, which locates in an area where large faults displaying Holocene activity have been recently recognized but no significant earthquake is reported in the historical catalogue. Cosenza has the highest probability to experience a significant peak ground acceleration with both the new hybrid and the traditional approaches. We wish to stress that the present results should be interpreted only in terms of the differences between the new hybrid and the traditional approaches, not for their absolute values, and that they are not intended to be used for updating or modifying the current national seismic zonation.