焉耆盆地种植冬小麦气候可行性分析

摘要：焉耆盆地种植冬小麦关键在于越冬期气象条件能否保证冬麦安全越冬。通过对焉耆县近60a来冬季气候变化特征分析,年极端最低气温总体呈上升趋势,趋势变化率为0．67℃／10a;极端最低气温与积雪深度成明显的反相关,相关系数r=-0．62,即没有积雪的年份最低气温一般不会特别低;60a中积雪深度不到5cm且最低气温低于-24℃的概率只有14％,正常年份焉耆盆地种植强抗寒性冬麦品种可以安全越冬。2008、2009年冬季偏暖,无稳定积雪覆盖,极端最低气温分别为-17．9℃、-21℃,试种冬麦均获得成功。     

覆盖与揭膜时间对越冬人参和西洋参出苗影响

人参和西洋参冬季需要覆盖防寒才能安全越冬,覆盖时间和揭膜时间对安全越冬及出苗影响很大,为确定最佳防寒覆盖时间和揭膜时间,2021年11月—2022年6月在吉林省抚松县开展分期覆盖和分期揭膜试验,研究不同覆盖时间和揭膜时间对人参和西洋参越冬期地温及出苗影响。结果表明:人参和西洋参出苗率随着覆盖时间推迟而下降。5 cm地温降至0℃时覆盖防寒,人参和西洋参出苗率最高,是最佳覆盖防寒期;5 cm地温降至-12℃以下覆盖西洋参大部或全部冻死;5 cm地温瞬时低至-14℃时人参出苗率仍达75%;5 cm地温在-14～-8℃之间波动,极端最低为-16℃的裸地人参全部被冻死。人参出苗时5～20 cm地温约为8～9℃,西洋参略高于人参。用高绝热纤维被覆盖防寒,揭膜越晚地温越低,出苗越晚,揭膜时间影响出苗进度,与最终出苗率相关不明显;最佳揭膜时间需根据地形具体分析,早春常发生霜冻地块可结合气候预测,通过揭膜时间控制出苗进度避免春季冻害的发生。     

旱作地膜小麦玉米带田一膜两用热效应研究

旱作地膜小麦—玉米带田一膜两用技术热效应显著，可提高地温２—６℃，保证了小麦安全越冬，促进了作物早发。热资源利用率高达０．９９７，比单作提高２５％—４０％，变作物一年一熟为一年两熟。     

吐鲁番葡萄免土埋越冬技术试验分析

以吐鲁番市葡萄乡铁提尔村和红柳河园艺场五队为试验区,在2007-2008年越冬期间,利用白绒胶粘布、黑绒胶粘布、深色再生绒毡、黑色PVC保鲜膜作为覆盖材料,开展葡萄免土埋越冬气象条件研究。结果表明,免土埋覆盖能较好起到保温保湿作用,基本能满足葡萄安全越冬需要。     

旱作地膜小麦-玉米带田一膜两用热效应显著

旱作地膜小麦－玉米带田一膜两用技术热效应显著，可提高地温２—６℃，保证了小麦安全越冬，促进了作物早发；热资源利用率高达０．９７７，比单作提高了２５％－４０％；变作物一年一熟为一年两熟，亩产可达到４４０—６１０ｋｇ，比单作增产２０％－８０％．     

旱作地膜小麦-玉米带田一膜两用热效应显著

旱作地膜小麦－玉米带田－膜两用技术热效应显著，可提高地温２－６℃，保证了小麦安全越冬，促进了作物早发；热资源利用率高达０．９７７，比单作提高了２５％－４０％，变作物一年一熟为一年两熟，亩产可达到４４０－６１０ｋｇ，比单比增产２０％－８０％。     

葡萄越冬防寒技术研究综述

葡萄冻害严重影响着我国北方葡萄的正常生产和品质,采取适宜的越冬防寒技术是确保葡萄产业健康发展的关键。通过查阅我国北方地区有关葡萄防寒越冬的相关方法和技术,以葡萄冻害入手,分别从覆盖保温被、保温膜、草帘等保温材料,埋土覆盖越冬防寒措施以及积雪覆盖的保温作用等多方面,分析对比了各防寒越冬技术的材料、原理、效果及优缺点。提出了以下建议:(1)葡萄安全越冬应采取因地制宜的措施,对于葡萄本身来说应采用综合的葡萄抗寒性锻炼,提高葡萄抗寒能力。(2)在探索不同地区切实有效、经济实惠的防寒越冬措施时,需要充分注重细节;不同覆膜技术和埋土技术应因地制宜,选择适合的安全越冬方式;在温度不是太寒冷的地区可采用机械埋土技术。(3)应该继续开发机械覆膜技术,以节约经济和劳力投入。(4)基于双层膜技术的保温效果及经济投入状况,以及自身在环保、耐磨以及人力投入较大等自身不足等特点,建议选择双层膜环保耐磨新材料,结合机械化覆膜新技术,在寒冷且风沙强烈的地区加以大力推广,这可能是未来葡萄防寒越冬措施的发展趋势。     

2002年新疆玉米农业气象条件评述

1春玉米2002年春玉米生长发育期间,气象条件对春玉米的发育有利有弊。有利方面主要表现在:①玉米苗期及拔节前后光热充足,有利于玉米生长发育,玉米生长发育速度较快。②农田底墒较好,玉米需水关键期北疆降水充沛,南疆灌溉用水有保证。③生长期间热量条件好,播种至成熟≥10℃积温为2630～3310℃·d,除新源、乌兰乌苏、精河正常略偏少外,其余地区偏多30～157℃·d。不利方面主要表现在:①春季气温偏低,降水偏多,田间湿度过大,影响了玉米的播种进度。②抽雄期间及灌浆前期气温高于常年,大部地区出现了数日≥35℃的高温天气,对玉米的开花授粉及…     

2005年新疆玉米农业气象条件评述

1春玉米2005年春玉米生长期间,气象条件对春玉米的生长发育利大于弊。有利方面主要表现在:①玉米苗期及拔节生长期前后光热充足,玉米生长前期的发育速度较快,大部玉米发育期提前。②农田底墒较好,玉米需水关键期降水较充沛,南疆灌溉用水有保证。③抽雄和开花吐丝期间,大部地区无日最高气温≥35℃的高温天气,对玉米开花吐丝较为有利。灌浆阶段气温适宜,有利于玉米的充分灌浆。④生长期间热量条件较好,播种至成熟≥10℃积温为2723～3793℃·d,大部地区偏多45～477℃·d。不利方面主要表现在:①拔节至抽雄期间,大部玉米区气温明显偏高,部分地区…     

豫东地区越冬花菜光温水指标探讨

对2001~2004年豫东地区越冬花菜发育期的光照、温度、水分等条件进行田间试验获得的数据进行统计分析,结果表明:豫东地区越冬花菜幼苗期适宜温度为15~25℃,最低温度5~7℃,最高温度25~30℃;莲座期适宜温度为4~20℃,最低温度-1~3℃,最高温度21~22℃;花球形成期适宜温度一般为14~21℃,最低温度8~10℃,最高温度21~30℃。花菜生育期耗水量在765~940 mm之间,水分利用效率最高,超过950 mm或低于510 mm时,水分利用效率显著降低。该研究为开展越冬花菜高产优质栽培技术,提高花菜越冬的抗灾能力提供了理论和实践基础。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on