天山山区树轮气候研究若干进展

由于分布广泛、分辨率高、定年准确和气候敏感性好等原因,树木年轮在重建过去区域、半球甚至全球气候环境变化中扮演着重要角色。天山地处中亚干旱区,气候变化波动大,对全球变化响应敏感,植物生长的干旱胁迫作用强烈,天山山区分布有大量雪岭云杉和西伯利亚落叶松等长龄且对气候敏感的针叶树种,因此天山山区是树轮气候研究的理想区域。天山山区树轮气候研究始于20世纪70年代,尤其是近10 a有了长足的进步,有关天山山区树轮气候研究已经在国际上有一定影响。本文通过综述国内外对天山山区树轮气候研究的现状和进展,总结了近200 a基于树轮资料的天山山区较为一致的气候变化规律,并为进一步开展天山山区树轮气候研究提出建议。天山山区未来树木年轮气候学研究应在开展大量不同区域树木年轮气候学重建基础上,尝试理解树木径向生长对气候的响应机理研究,同时选用不同数理方法和多树木年轮指标进行长时间尺度和大空间范围重建工作,并讨论中亚干旱区过去千年气候变化的影响机制。     

不同去趋势方法对格尔木地区胡杨宽度年表的气候意义影响分析

基于2014年采自柴达木盆地南缘格尔木地区的胡杨树轮样本,采用三种不同去趋势方法(样条函数法、负指数拟合和区域曲线去趋势方法)建立树轮标准化序列,结合格尔木气象站气候资料,分析不同去趋势方法下胡杨径向生长对气候的响应。研究表明,利用区域去趋势方法建立的树轮年表包含有较多的气候环境信息,胡杨树轮年表与逐月气候因子相关表明,树轮年表对降水响应不显著,与生长季的平均气温和平均最高气温有较好的相关性,最高相关系数达0.411(p0.01),格尔木胡杨树轮的区域去趋势年表与组合相关的6—10月平均最高气温相关性最好,生长季的平均最高气温对胡杨径向生长有一定的限制作用并具有树木生理学意义。用区域曲线去趋势方法得出的格尔木胡杨树轮年表对气候的响应最好。     

根据树木年轮长记录推测古气候

研究气候变化不能光依靠气象要素的观测记录,因为气象记录年代很短,并且不能充分地描述自然气候状况的变化范围。本文试图利用千年树轮宽度变化的古气候信息,例如用美国西部的刺毛果松树(bristlecone pine)的资料,来推测古气候的状况。由于刺毛果松树个别树木的树龄很高,而且还有一些死亡树木至今仍然存在,所以通过交叉定年代(cross dating),就可以得到很长的树轮宽度年表。所谓交叉定年代是指各树轮序列间宽年轮和窄     

年轮生长序列订正的一种新方法——样条函数法

序言在北美西部的半干旱环境中,森林上、下界的树木常常不受周围树木之竞争和干扰,树木径向年生长率通常随树龄的增长而按某种有条理的方式下降到一个相对稳定的平均水平.由于这种生长率之下降起源于生物学的原因,所以必须先在每一年轮序列中予以剔除,才能最后将这些序列组成树木年轮年表,以用于过去气候变化的研究.将这种非气候“噪声”模式化然后予以剔除的过程,就是所谓标准化处理(弗里茨(Fritts)     

天山北坡中部不同海拔高度雪岭云杉树轮宽度气候响应对比分析

利用天山北坡中部沙湾地区两个坡面随海拔高度采集的雪岭云杉树芯样本,建立了13个树轮宽度年表。分析结果表明,2个坡面年表特征值随海拔高度的变化而不同,不同海拔树轮宽度对气候因子的响应呈现规律性。高低海拔采样点在生长季前对气候因子的响应相同,而在生长季则呈相反的响应。在生长季,高海拔采样点随海拔的升高,树轮宽度对气温的响应降低。不同坡面间受小生境的干扰较大,坡度较小的大鹿角湾高海拔采样点主要受气温的影响,而在坡度较大的石头沟高海拔采点则对降水有更明显的响应。沙湾树轮宽度年表对PDSI指数的响应与大尺度范围的树轮响应一致,即与PDSI呈正相关,低海拔区域响应最显著。主成分分析表明,在同一坡面树轮宽度年表的前3个主分量可以反映因海拔高度变化气候因子对树木年轮生长的影响。2个坡面树轮宽度年表的第一主分量表征持续干旱对整个坡面的影响。     

天山北坡东部树轮宽度和稳定碳同位素的环境响应分析

在天山北坡东部森林上限采集雪岭云杉样本,建立了树轮宽度年表和稳定碳同位素序列,采用相关函数分析了树轮宽度与木垒气象站温度和降水的关系,发现这一区域的树轮宽度主要受到水分条件的限制,但由于采样点位于森林上限,温度也限制了树木的生长,导致了树轮宽度记录降水信息能力减弱。树木年轮稳定碳同位素序列反映了工业革命以来,由于化石燃料燃烧,大气CO2浓度增加,大气δ13C降低的事实。将树轮δ13C序列进行校正后与木垒月气象资料的相关分析表明,树轮碳同位素序列与温度和降水的关系较为复杂,可能受到多种因素的共同影响。这一区域森林上限的树轮碳同位素并不是反映气候变化的最好指标。     

阿拉善荒漠及周边山区树木年轮学研究进展

阿拉善荒漠地处西风带、高原季风和东亚夏季风尾闾和交汇影响区,不仅是我国气候变化的敏感区,还是我国主要的沙尘源区和运移通道。通过总结分析阿拉善荒漠及周边地区的树木年轮学研究成果,综述了阿拉善荒漠绿洲区河/湖岸林、荒漠灌木、周边山地针叶林等乔灌木树种日-季-年尺度径向生长的主要气候限制因子、年轮记录的过去百余年来气候变化特征及其驱动机制。今后该区域树木年轮研究应更加注重未来气候发展趋势预测,并拓展更多研究树种及树轮指标,将荒漠区乔灌木年轮研究、荒漠周边山地树木年轮研究和荒漠演变过程三者有机地结合起来,为更加全面、深入了解阿拉善荒漠化驱动机制和治理决策制定提供科学依据。     

根河与海拉尔年轮气候规律的分析及展望

利用树木年轮与气温和降水等气候资料 ,依据数理统计学和天气预报学等基本原理 ,通过历史气候的延长、插补和统计分析等方法 ,重点研究了根河和海拉尔两个不同森林气候区域的年轮气候变化规律、趋势与展望 ,提出了未来 40年内有利和不利年轮生长的气候年段。     

根河与海拉尔年龄气候规律的分析及展望

利用树木年轮与气温和降水等气候资料,依据数理统计学和天气预报学等基本原理,通过历史气候的延长、插补和统计分析等方法,重点研究了根河和海拉尔两个不同森林气候区域的年轮气候变化规律、趋势与展望,提出了未来40年内有利和不利年轮生长的气候年段。     

用于气候分析的树木年轮稳定同位素资料获取方法与质量控制?

随着稳定同位素分析技术的进步和植物生理学研究的发展,稳定同位素在树轮气候研究中扮演着日益重要的角色。本文总结了用于气候分析的树木年轮稳定同位素资料获取与质量控制方法。包括对分析树轮样品的要求、树轮纤维素提取实验流程、树轮同位素的质谱分析方法和稳定碳同位素数据的处理方法等。为树轮稳定同位素实验分析提供参考,便于获得可靠的树轮同位素数据,且能够进行不同实验室之间数据结果的对比,为建立树木年轮同位素网络奠定基础。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;