On the seismic regime network method

In this paper, based on the previous study of practical use of seismic regime windows and seismic regime belts, the problem of establishing a “seismic regime network” consisting of “windows” and “belts” is further posed and discussed according to the observed fact that many “windows” and “belts” make responses to one earthquake. For the convenience of usage, the “seismic regime network” is divided into two classes, the first class and the second one. The former can be used in tendency prediction for long-term seismic activity in a large area, the latter used in short-term prediction in a small area. In this paper, after briefly discussing the physical significance of “seismic regime network”, it is pointed out that this simple and easily used method can be used to observe and extract seismic precursory information from a large area before a great earthquake, thus it can provide a reliable basis for the analysis and judgement of seismic regime tendency in time and space. No doult, this method is of certain practical significance. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 161–169, 1991. The English version of this paper is improved by Prof. Shaoxie Xu.     

The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (MS=7) by the "criterion of activity in quiescence"

IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province…     

The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

ＴｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅｔｅｎｄｅｎｃｙｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｉｔｓｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｔｏｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＨｅ－ＹｕｎＺＨＡＯ（赵和云）（ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲｅｓｅａｒ...     

Study on the pattern and mode of vertical crustal deformation during the seismogenic process of intraplate strong earthquakes

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎａｎｄｍｏｄｅｏｆｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｉｎｔｒａｐｌａｔｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ杨国华，桂昆长，巩曰沐，杨春花，韩...     

On the Perceptibility of Earthquakes

A method is presented to derive a first order approximation of the number of people likely to feel any earthquake, assuming a uniform population distribution. The “most perceptible” earthquake is a function of the frequency of earthquake occurrence (there are more small earthquakes) and effect (large ones will be felt by more people). The method is demonstrated taking the UK as a test case. The trade-off between the two trends seems to produce a peak value of about 4.5 ML for the earthquake that the typical inhabitant of the UK is most likely to have felt. It is also found that a UK citizen who lives for 70 years has a roughly 42% chance of experiencing a British earthquake at some point in their life. In practice, of course, the issue is complicated both by irregular population distribution and to some extent regional irregularities in the magnitude-frequency distribution for the UK. The method is easily adaptable to other countries; its relevance is chiefly in the generation of statistics of interest to the public at large, thus aiding public understanding of science.     

Analysis of the geothermal vortexes triggering the Xingtai earthquake in 1966

ＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｔｈｅｇｅｏｔｈｅｒｍａｌｖｏｒｔｅｘｅｓｔｒｉｇｇｅｒｉｎｇｔｈｅＸｉｎｇｔａｉｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｉｎ１９６６ＭＡＯＣＡＮＧＴＡＮＧ（汤懋苍）ＸＩＡＯＱＩＮＧＧＡＯ（高晓清）ＬａｎｚｈｏｕＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＰｌａｔｅ...     

Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution ( M ≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M _S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Major Research “Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety” from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.     

Observation and analysis of geomagnetic abnormity associated with the Ms=5.7 Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake

A three-component geomagnetic survey was carried out during the period from 2002 to 2004 in China including Jiujiang-Ruichang region. Comparing the ＂2005.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂ created on the basis of the survey data with the ＂1970.0 surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂, we can see an obvious abnormity in the geomagnetic horizontal component within a range of about 100 km around the epicenter of the Ms=5.7 Jiujiang-Ruichang earthquake occurred on November 26, 2005. After the earthquake, we carded out a repeated geomagnetic survey at 21 stations in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and created a corresponding ＂2005.0 partially revised surface spline model of China geomagnetic field＂. By comparing the above three models, analyzing the geomagnetic horizontal component at the profile in the Jiujiang-Ruichang region and quantitatively studying the geomagnetic data of every stations around the Ms=5.7 earthquake, we have obtained the geomagnetic abnormity associated with this earthquake. Then the geomagnetic abnormity and its relation with seismic activity are discussed in this paper.     

Probable satellite thermal infrared anomaly before the Zhangbei M s=6.2 earthquake on January 10, 1998

This paper used the thermal infrared data of the satellite NOAA-AAVHRR of the north part of North China (113°～119° E, 38°～42° N), and processed the remote sensing data through radiation adjustment, geometric adjustment and so on by the software ＂The Monitoring and Fast Process System of Earthquake Precursor Thermal Infrared Anomaly＂, inversed the earth surface temperature. Some disturbances effect had been excluded, and thermal infrared temperature anomaly had been extracted by the picture difference method. The Zhangbei MS=6.2 earthquake is used as the example in the paper, so that in the paper thermal infrared characteristics on time-space before earthquake and the relationship between the anomaly and the earthquake prediction have been summarized.Within more than ten days before the Zhangbei earthquake, the thermal infrared anomaly had emerged widely along Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic belt, and the anomalous region seemed like a belt and it is also consistent with the tectonic background there; the anomaly expanded from the outside toward the earthquake focus, but the focus lay at the edge of the thermal infrared region. So it is possible to explore a new anomaly observation method for earthquake prediction by observing and studying the satellite thermal infrared anomaly before big earthquakes happen.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.