Simulation of the active and quiet periods of seismicity

ＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅａｃｔｉｖｅａｎｄｑｕｉｅｔｐｅｒｉｏｄｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙＺＨＯＮＧ－ＸＭＮＨＵＡＮＧ（黄忠贤）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＣｒｕｓｔａｌＤｙｎａｍｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉ...     

Promoting effects of 1975 Haicheng foreshocks on theoccurrence of the mainshock

Ｐｒｏｍｏｔｉｎｇｅｆｆｅｃｔｓｏｆ１９７５ＨａｉｃｈｅｎｇｆｏｒｅｓｈｏｃｋｓｏｎｔｈｅｏｃｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅｏｆｔｈｅｍａｉｎｓｈｏｃｋＸｉｎｇ－ＣａｉＬＩ（李兴才）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｔｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａ...     

Possible dynamics of normal－fault earthquakes in the upper crust of the south part of the Qinghai－Xizang Plateau

Ｐｏｓｓｉｂｌｅｄｙｎａｍｉｃｓｏｆｎｏｒｍａｌ－ｆａｕｌｔｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｉｎｔｈｅｕｐｐｅｒｃｒｕｓｔｏｆｔｈｅｓｏｕｔｈｐａｒｔｏｆｔｈｅＱｉｎｇｈａｉ－ＸｉｚａｎｇＰｌａｔｅａｕ张东宁，许忠淮Ｄｏｎｇ－ＮｉｎｇＺＨＡＮＧａｎｄＺｈｏｎｇ...     

The origin of the crustal conductive layer and the conductivity of supercritical brine（Ⅱ）

Ｔｈｅｏｒｉｇｉｎｏｆｔｈｅｃｒｕｓｔａｌｃｏｎｄｕｃｔｉｖｅｌａｙｅｒａｎｄｔｈｅｃｏｎｄｕｃｔｉｖｉｔｙｏｆｓｕｐｅｒｃｒｉｔｉｃａｌｂｒｉｎｅ（Ⅱ）ＣＨＡＮＧ－ＦＡＮＧＸＵ（徐常芳）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｌｏｇｙ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏ...     

The structure features of stick-slip mechanism of the strike-slip earthquake generating structure in the interior of the Chinese mainland

ＴｈｅｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｆｅａｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｓｔｉｃｋｓｌｉｐｍｅｃｈａｎｉｓｍｏｆｔｈｅｓｔｒｉｋｅｓｌｉｐｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｇｅｎｅｒａｔｉｎｇｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｉｎｔｈｅｉｎｔｅｒｉｏｒｏｆｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｍａｉｎｌａｎｄＷＥＮＬ...     

Study of the intensity attenuation law in the East China Plain and the northwest of China

ＳｔｕｄｙｏｆｔｈｅｉｎｔｅｎｓｉｔｙａｔｔｅｎｕａｔｉｏｎｌａｗｉｎｔｈｅＥａｓｔＣｈｉｎａＰｌａｉｎａｎｄｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｗｅｓｔｏｆＣｈｉｎａ郁曙君Ｓｈｕ－ＪｕｎＹＵ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃ...     

Evidence of earthquakes triggered by the tidal force of the sun and the moon——On the temporal characteristics of the earthquakes in Xingtai,Hejian and Tangshan

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＵｎｔｉｌｎｏｗ,ｍａｎｙｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｉｏｎｓａｎｄｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｓｈｏｗｔｈａｔｉｎａｃｅｒｔａｉｎａｒｅａｓａｎｄｄｕｒｉｎｇａｃｅｒｔａｉｎｐｅｒｉｏｄｍａｊｏｒｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｆｒｅｑｕｅｎｔｌｙｏｃｕｒｅｄ...     

Kinematic features of the seismogenic fault of the Tangshan earthquake and the recurrence period of large earthquakes

ＫｉｎｅｍａｔｉｃｆｅａｔｕｒｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｆａｕｌｔｏｆｔｈｅＴａｎｇｓｈａｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅａｎｄｔｈｅｒｅｃｕｒｒｅｎｃｅｐｅｒｉｏｄｏｆｌａｒｇｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＪＩＥＬＩＵ１）（刘洁）ＨＵＩ－ＺＨＥＮＳＯＮ...     

A stochastic model of the Fourier phase of strong ground motion

ＡｓｔｏｃｈａｓｔｉｃｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｈｅＦｏｕｒｉｅｒｐｈａｓｅｏｆｓｔｒｏｎ　ｇｒｏｕｎｄｍｏｔｉｏｎＺｈｅｎ－ＰｅｎｇＬＩＡＯ；（廖振鹏）ａｎｄＸｉｎｇＪＩＮ（金星）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＥｎｇｉｎｅｅｒｉｎｇＭｅｃｈａｎｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳ...     

Determination of the direction and magnitude of recent tectonic stress in the Xianshuihe fault zone using fault slip data

ＤｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｄｉｒｅｃｔｉｏｎａｎｄｍａｇｎｉｔｕｄｅｏｆｒｅｃｅｎｔｔｅｃｔｏｎｉｃｓｔｒｅｓｓｉｎｔｈｅＸｉａｎｓｈｕｉｈｅｆａｕｌｔｚｏｎｅｕｓｉｎｇｆａｕｌｔｓｌｉｐｄａｔａ谢富仁，李宏Ｆｕ－ＲｅｎＸＩＥａｎｄＨｏｎｇ...     

青藏高原东南缘多尺度重力场及构造含义

本文基于EGM2008重力场模型研究了青藏高原东南缘均衡重力异常和多尺度的布格重力异常特征, 以鲁甸和景谷地震为例, 认识其深部构造环境和动力学过程, 为该区域的构造运动和地震孕育环境研究提供依据。 结果表明, 研究区布格重力异常和均衡重力异常与地质构造格局相关性较好, 川滇地块剧烈的区域布格重力异常和非均衡状态与其强烈的地壳变形、 断裂及地震活动密切相关。 强震多分布在断裂带两侧重力异常的过渡地带和高梯度带, 断裂带两侧横向和垂向的显著介质密度差异是强震孕育的深部构造背景。 布格重力异常和均衡重力异常揭示的鲁甸、 景谷震源区深浅差异性的重力异常特征, 暗示鲁甸和景谷地震孕震环境的不同。     

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake

The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment. Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China.     

Current tectonic deformation and seismogenic characteristics along the northeast margin of Qinghai -Xizang block

Introduction The northeast margin of Qinghai-Xizang block has become the place with close attentions from geo-specialists at home and abroad for its significant tectonic movement and intensive seismicity. Quite a number of achievements have been obtained from the studies on geological structures and strong earthquake activities (DING, LU, 1989, 1991; GUO, et al, 1992, 2000; GUO, XIANG, 1993; HOU, et al, 1999; Tapponnier, et al, 1990; Gaudemer, et al, 1995). In the Development Program…     

Gravity anomaly, lithospheric structure and seismicity of Western Himalayan Syntaxis

A compiled gravity anomaly map of the Western Himalayan Syntaxis is analysed to understand the tectonics of the region around the epicentre of Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005 (Mw = 7.6). Isostatic gravity anomalies and effective elastic thickness (EET) of lithosphere are assessed from coherence analysis between Bouguer anomaly and topography. The isostatic residual gravity high and gravity low correspond to the two main seismic zones in this region, viz. Indus–Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) and Hindu Kush Seismic Zones (HKSZ), respectively, suggesting a connection between siesmicity and gravity anomalies. The gravity high originates from the high-density thrusted rocks along the syntaxial bend of the Main Boundary Thrust and coincides with the region of the crustal thrust earthquakes, including the Kashmir earthquake of 2005. The gravity low of HKSZ coincides with the region of intermediate–deep-focus earthquakes, where crustal rocks are underthrusting with a higher speed to create low density cold mantle. Comparable EET (∼55 km) to the focal depth of crustal earthquakes suggests that whole crust is seismogenic and brittle. An integrated lithospheric model along a profile provides the crustal structure of the boundary zones with crustal thickness of about 60 km under the Karakoram–Pamir regions and suggests continental subduction from either sides (Indian and Eurasian) leading to a complex compressional environment for large earthquakes.     

岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

Dynamic evolution patterns of the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy and the seismogenic process

Following a new train of thinking, this paper has explored first the potential information in the ground resistivity data observed by the existing geoelectric observation system, investigated and proposed a new dimensionless geoelectric precursor factor, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy, S, and studied the characteristics of dynamic evolution pattern of S during the seismogenic process. The results show that, during the seismogenic process, the degree of ground resistivity anisotropy (S) displays a process of 'normal' →'abnormal strengthening (amplitude, range)' →abnormal weakening' → 'earthquake occurrence'→ 'normal'. The earthquake would occur at the time when the S value has entered the late stage of strengthening and turns to weaken and in the gradient belt on the margin of S anomaly region. The dynamic evolution pattern of S reflects the changes of the tectonic stress field during the seismogenic process. Therefore, it would be possible to trace the process of earthquake generation and occurrence from the dynamic evolution pattern of S so as to service earthquake prediction.     

Characteristics of crustal strain associated with M =6.4 Baotou earthquake in 1996

Based on the horizontal crustal strain derived from GPS data and the rate accumulation intensity calculated from across-fault vertical deformation, the strain characteristics in the periods of 1992–1995, 1995–1996 and 1996–1999 in Baotou-Datong area is studied in the paper. From the comparison between the crustal strains before and after the M=6.4 Baotou earthquake occurred on May 3, 1996, it is considered that the high-magnitude area with predominant compressive strain might be the seismogenic zone for a coming strong earthquake. The area with the simultaneous higher surface strain, principal compressive strain, shear strain and tendency accumulation might be the place with higher risk of strong earthquakes. Generally, the area with low strain and predominant tensile strain might have a small possibility for strong earthquake development, which belongs to a stable area. The evolution of horizontal strain obtained from GPS measurements carried out in Baotou-Datong area in the period of 1992–1999 reflects the total developing and ending processes of the seismic episode from 1996 to 1998. The area with high and predominant compressive strain and the strain gradient zone can be considered as one of the indicators for determining the strong earthquake risk area in the future. Foundation item: State Key Basic Research Development and Programming Project (G19998040700) and State Natural Science Foundation of China (40174029).     

Dynamic pattern characteristics of fault deformation and gravity field in the development process of Yongdeng M S=5.8 earthquake

In this paper, the fault deformation abnormality, dynamic evolution features of gravity and vertical deformation field in the seismogenic process of the Yongdeng, Gansu Province earthquake on July 22, 1995 are studied primarily. There appeared α-β-γ tri-stage anomaly at three sites near the epicenter, and there appeared anomalies of step and sudden jump at more than 10 sites in outer region since 1993. The high value area before shock, coseismic effect and process of recovery aftershock were monitored by portable gravity data. Data reflects the changing process of fault movement from the quasi-linear to the nonlinear in the near source region during seismogenic development of the Yongdeng earthquake and evolution of gravity field from heterogeneity of seismogenic term to quasi-homogeneity of postseismic term. There exists close relationship between strong earthquake and dynamic evolution of regional stress-strain field. Considering all above, the experience and lessons in this medium-short term prediction test are summarized.     

A probable mechanism of the water level subsidence in wells as a precursor of an earthquake event

Case histories of water level subsidence in bore-holes as a precursor of earthquakes are given here. Based on the examples, a testable quantitative theory for causative mechanism of the precursor—“draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” is proposed (abbreviated to DIW model). Through analysing the constitution law of which the deformation changes in the porous, water-saturated media under the effect of exterior stress, as first step of all, the authors suggested first a simple “drainage-natural restoration model” (abbreviated to DNR model), calculated and gave a group of theoretical precursor curve by using DNR model, compared the theoretical precursor curves of DNR model with the observational curves, found out the differences of the two curves, studied the causative physical factors that caused the differences then, revised the DNR model, and finally, the theory on “draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” in the paper was obtained. The authors deduced general equation of the two dimensions “draining-injecting water linear source drawdown field” in the paper, suggested and developed the concept on “domain”. DIW model can also give a possible explanation for both regularity and complexity of this precursor. DIW theory can quantitatively divide the seismogenic process of the foci on the short-term and impending process into several phases, and by inversing the discharge functionq(τ) curve, the time values by which the phases are divided were obtained. They will be helpful to predicting the occurrence time of earthquake and judging the DD and IPE model of the seismogenesis. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 194–201, 1993.     

青藏高原及周边2001年以来三次特大地震引起的形变场分布特征

基于地壳黏弹模型在GPS观测资料和地震位错数据为约束条件下,应用有限元数值模拟方法对2001年昆仑山8.1级、2008年汶川8.0级和2015年尼泊尔8.1级特大地震引起的地壳形变分布特征进行了模拟计算,获得了地震位移场和形变场.这3次大地震分别发生在青藏高原的北部、东部边界和南部边界,尽管震级大小基本相当,但发震区域和发震断层性质都各不相同,其各自产生的地壳形变场分布特征存在明显的差异,主要表现为形变场区域大小、幅值大小等的差异,以及在不同地壳深度也存在明显的差异,这些差异主要取决于地震断层性质和地下介质结构的不同.通过模拟计算,可以进一步了解大地震产生的应力加卸载区分布特征,对预测未来地震发生区域范围提供重要参考依据.