Natural Gas Strategic Reserves in Foreign Countries and Its Enlightenments and Suggestions for China

Based on investigation and study of natural gas strategic reserves status nowadays in some developed countries such as USA or Em＇ope countries involving details of measures, methods, estab- lishment, implementation status and development trend, to combine current status and prospect of natural gas resource supply, infra- stnwture eonslruction and market supply and demand in China, the viewpuints is proposed as follow： China＇ s natural gas strategic re- serve should be established gradually with relevant premises are growing mature, which includes natural gas supply and demand are basically equilibrium, the market tends to be mature, storage infra- structures and system ＆ mechanism of natural gas reserve are get- ting continues improvement. It wouht be a long term project. In ad- dition, suggestions are proposed for establishing natural gas re- serves system ＆ mechanism and national natural gas strategic re- serves.     

Development Status and Outlook of LNG Industry in China

LNG industry in China has a relatively complete industrial chain, from liquefaction, transportation, gasification in receiving terminal to end use, and has entered into a period of rapid development. In recent years, the construction of LNG receiving terminals and natural gas liquefaction plants witnessed upsurges one by one in the coastal region of China. Now 50 natural gas liquefaction plants have been completed and in operation, with total liquefaction capacity being 23 million cubic meters per day, and more than 60 plants are being constructed or debugged, of which the annual production capacity may reach 20.8 billion cubic meters alter being completed. A great number of natural gas liquefaction plants have been constructed disorderly all over the country, and production capacity was expanded rapidly.     

Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.     

Overview of China's Oil and Gas Policies in 2020

正In 2020, China unswervingly promoted the opening up of the entire oil and gas industrial chain. The transfer of shale gas exploration rights was further promoted. The fair and open supervision of the oil and gas pipeline network was intensifed. It was further clarifed that the gate station prices of natural gas in provinces with competitive conditions shall be formed on the market. Private refineries were once again qualifed to export refned oil. An oil and gas market system featuring multi-entity and multi-channel supply of upstream oil and gas resources, effcient gathering and transportation through a unifed pipeline network in the midstream and full competition in the downstream sales market has been basically formed.     

Forecasting of China’s natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies, China’s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase, and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China’s energy structure. This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production, where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion. The forecast shows that China’s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036; in 2020, natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy. Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China’s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil. This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned. As well, full use should be made of domestic and international markets. Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas, which shall form a complement to the development of China’s conventional natural gas industry.     

ABSTRACTS-OF ARTICLES

Asset Integrity Management for Natural Gas Purification Plant Chen Geng liang, Li Jin Thees sence of Asset Integrity Management（AIM）is to implement risk management for asset.The basic goals,fundamental principles,ALARP（As Low As Reasonable Practice）criterion and 14 key elements of AIM were set forth in this paper,as well as risk identification,risk assessment and riskcontrol.In natural gas purification plants under Petro China,a whole set of effective risk assessment techniques are currently established on the concept of risk management and a solid technical foundation for AIM is laid down.It is suggested that a series of researches about AIM for purification plant should be carried out and a management system platform need to be developed as soon as possible.     

Current Conditions and Outlook of Global Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration

The world is rich in offshore oil and gas resources. The offshore oil reserves account for about 34 percent of the world＇s total. With a 30 percent proven rate, offshore oil exploration is still in its preliminary stage. Based on the statistics by ＂Oil ＆ Gas Journal,＂ as of the January 1, 2006, the proven oil reserves worldwide are 175.7 billion tons and the proven natural gas reserves 173 trillion cubic meters. The global offshore oil reserves approach 135 billion tons, of which 38 billion tons are proven, while the offshore natural gas reserves amount to about 140 trillion cubic meters, of which 40 trillion cubic meters are proven.     

Geological characteristics and accumulation mechanisms of the “continuous” tight gas reservoirs of the Xu2 Member in the middlesouth transition region, Sichuan Basin, China

“Continuous” tight gas reservoirs are those reservoirs which develop in widespread tight sandstones with a continuous distribution of natural gas. In this paper, we summarize the geological features of the source rocks and “continuous” tight gas reservoirs in the Xujiahe Formation of the middlesouth transition region, Sichuan Basin. The source rocks of the Xu1 Member and reservoir rocks of the Xu2 Member are thick (Xu1 Member: 40 m, Xu2 Member: 120 m) and are distributed continuously in this study area. The results of drilled wells show that the widespread sandstone reservoirs of the Xu2 Member are charged with natural gas. Therefore, the natural gas reservoirs of the Xu2 Member in the middle-south transition region are “continuous” tight gas reservoirs. The accumulation of “continuous” tight gas reservoirs is controlled by an adequate driving force of the pressure differences between source rocks and reservoirs, which is demonstrated by a “one-dimensional” physical simulation experiment. In this simulation, the natural gas of “continuous” tight gas reservoirs moves forward with no preferential petroleum migration pathways (PPMP), and the natural gas saturation of “continuous” tight gas reservoirs is higher than that of conventional reservoirs.     

GTL or LNG: Which is the best way to monetize “stranded” natural gas?

A large portion of world＇s natural gas reserves are ＂stranded＂ resources, the drive to monetize these resources leads to the development of gas-to-liquids （GTL） and liquefied natural gas （LNG） technologies. LNG has the advantage of having been developed for the past 40 years and having an excellent safety record. GTL on the other hand is another option with substantial benefits, but its development stage and commercial viability are far behind LNG. This paper presents a techno-economic comparison of GTL with LNG, including technical development, plant efficiency, market potential for the products, and capital cost for the infrastructure. The aim is to give an overall view on both LNG and GTL and provide a perspective on the profitability of these two technologies.     

The Future of Oil Industry

Petroleum and natural gas are two important aspects of oil industry. They are important factors that restrain China’s economic development and affect the security of its energy supply as well. The issues related to oil and gas are a very hot topic, and arouse extensive attention globally. 1. Introduction Energy structure varies constantly with time. At present, the main forms of the world energy resources are such fossil fuels as coal, petroleum and natural gas. The future of oil industry i…     

产业链视角下的“气荒”解读

2009年11月,引起广泛关注的“气荒”是产业链风险的再次体现,是产业链快速发展的阶段问题。为避免“气荒”频发,着眼整个天然气产业链及其外部环境,剖析了“气荒”产生的原因,提出特定发展阶段、独特动力结构和特殊发展轨迹是解读“气荒”的关键：①产业链处于快速发展阶段并提早进入市场引导资源的细分阶段,伴随供需失衡是难以避免的正常现象;②产业链上、中游有一定竞争性,中游的干线和支线处于一定分割状态,低气价和管道燃气接驳费等下游市场制度安排,各环节均产生强烈的需求扩张冲动,激发了天然气供需失衡;③早期以低价支农惠民起步,我国经济发展水平和城市化水平迈上新台阶,下游市场形成巨大城市燃气需求,天然气利用规划不到位以及储气设施、调峰手段严重不足,加剧了天然气供需失衡。为此提出了有效防范天然气产业链风险的建议：①必须加强产业链发展规划;②建立全产业链调峰、错谷机制;③从全球视角看待价格机制改革;④逐步通过产业链结构改革,引入竞争机制。     

天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

城市天然气高压输配管网风险评价

城市天然气管网由城市边缘超高压、高压天然气主干管线与市内次高压、中压天然气管网构成。由于天然气主干管和市内天然气输配管网的风险影响因素不完全相同，而且城市高压天然气管线的设计、新建成、运行阶段的风险特征也有所不同。因此，有必要建立基于不同阶段的风险评价体系。为此， 通过风险因素分析，分别建立了3个阶段的风险评价模型，运用指数评分法进行风险分析，并基于风险评价体系进行风险等级划分。针对风险等级较高的评价对象，根据实际情况和专家咨询意见，对各影响因素给出相应的风险缓解措施。风险评价结果有助于城市天然气高压管网的设计、新建成、运行阶段的修正、维护及管理。     

天然气长输管道的定量风险评价方法

定量风险评价是天然气管道安全管理的有效方法,通过风险评价,可以将管道事故可能造成的灾害风险降低到可接受标准以下。在对天然气长输管线风险分析的基础上,指出造成事故灾害性后果的主要方式是热辐射和冲击波。对天然气管道事故率、事故后果进行了分析,得出了热辐射引起的人员死亡概率的计算方法。天然气管道的风险可以用个人风险和社会风险进行定量评价,介绍了定量计算个人风险和社会风险的方法,并结合实例进行了计算和分析。     

基于失效数据的油气管道定量风险评价方法

油气管道风险评价作为当前的热点问题,逐渐由定性评价向定量评价过渡。为了减少油气管道定量风险评价过程中主观因素的影响,建立了基于管道失效历史数据的油气管道定量风险评价模型,通过分析美国管道与危险品安全管理局(PHMSA)等数据库的管道分类失效数据,确定了油气管道的基本失效概率与修正因子的指标体系,再根据各个指标量化的难易程度将修正因子分为定量、半定量及定性3种类型,其中前两类指标可以量化或量化分级,仅后一类指标依赖于专家的经验判断,大大降低了风险评价的主观依赖性。进一步构建了油气管道风险评价矩阵,用失效概率量化失效可能性,用后果评分量化失效后果的严重程度。最后,将该油气管道定量风险评价方法应用于某输气管线,并绘制"红橙黄蓝"4色管线风险分布图,识别出该管线的高风险管段。结论认为:(1)基于管道失效历史数据的风险评价方法能够客观地量化管道的失效概率,准确进行风险分级,有利于实施风险分级管控策略;(2)建议建立全行业或全国范围的管道失效数据库,以期为基于历史数据的定量风险评价乃至制订风险管控措施提供依据。     

天然气产业可持续发展机制

天然气产业可持续发展是适应能源革命要求、构建现代能源体系、实现美丽中国目标的战略选择与内生需要,过去的相关研究多集中于环境分析、形势研判与政策建议,其研究结果不能有效地应用于天然气产业链独具特性的一体化、可持续发展过程。为此,在天然气产业链系统与可持续发展系统耦合视域下,建立天然气产业可持续发展机制模型,探讨天然气产业可持续发展系统的稳健运行机制,以期为天然气产业可持续发展提供一种新的管理思路。研究结果表明:①天然气产业可持续发展系统平稳运行与平衡发展需要依靠天然气资源安全保供机制、天然气市场配置机制、天然气产业链绿色发展机制、天然气和谐发展机制协同作用;②天然气资源安全保供机制通过对以天然气资源为介质的物流链、责任链、管理链进行集约化管理来实现;③天然气市场配置机制必须综合考虑竞争机制、价格机制与监管机制;④天然气产业链绿色发展机制需要构建绿色发展制度与政策体系、产业链技术生态化发展体系、绿色发展文化体系;⑤天然气和谐发展机制需天然气企业、天然气用户和政府三方各自践行责任共同努力。结论认为,四大机制协同作用能够为促进天然气产业可持续发展耦合系统的有序演进与跃迁提供支撑。     

基于AHM风险定量分析的LNG输气场站完整性管理综合评价

针对LN G输气场站完整性管理涉及因素较多的问题,选取业务能力、安全意识、职业素质、消防系统、防护抢救装备、压力容器、阀门及仪表、HSE管理、规章制度、第三方破坏和自然灾害等11项内容作为主要评价指标,提出了基于AHM(属性层次模型)对LN G输气场站运营中存在的风险进行定量评价的方法。计算结果表明,AHM简单且易掌握,计算量小,无需进行一致性检验;通过对矩阵进行调整判断,使AHM对多因素、多层次的复杂问题评判效果较好。同时,该研究可为LN G输气场站运营风险决策、风险管理以及完整性管理提供可靠的基础依据。     

我国“气荒”的原因及对策

2009年11月初,我国部分地区出现的“气荒”必然有其原因：①天然气供需矛盾是直接原因;②天然气价格形成机制的不完善是深层原因;③天然气产业链不均衡发展是根本原因。基于上述3点认识,综合分析认为,若要促进我国天然气工业的健康发展,避免“气荒”的再次发生,必须实施相应的措施, 包括：①通过加大天然气资源勘探开发力度以及增加天然气进口来增加天然气的供应量;②通过天然气管道建设促进天然气管网的形成,提高运输效率;③通过配套储气设施的建设提高应急能力;④深化天然气价格形成机制的改革。     

城市燃气管道风险评价技术现状分析与展望

天然气燃料的迅速开发利用，使得城市燃气管道安全运行影响着城镇的每一个个体。以燃气管道风险评价的发展趋势为基点，介绍并分析了当前我国城市燃气管道的特性和风险评价技术现状以及常用的风险评价方法；针对风险评价存在的问题，阐述了对燃气管道风险评价研究的人因分析、适用性和完整性等方面的理解与展望。     

关于天然气产业可持续发展的几点思考

根据世界天然气市场发展阶段特点,结合我国天然气市场现状,提出我国天然气行业正处于发展期的认识。深入剖析了天然气产业自身的特点：①气田开发、管网、终端用户三者是一套“联合生产装置”;②天然气生产供应具有规模性、稳定性、建设周期长、风险大的特点;③天然气管网具有周期长、投资大、长期性等特点;④天然气市场具有多重特性。在此基础上,提出了推进我国天然气可持续健康发展的措施和建议：①统筹兼顾,提高天然气产业链的效率、效益和稳定性,是天然气产业可持续发展追求的目标;②资源稳定是天然气产业健康发展的前提;③建立多层次调峰保障系统是保障市场稳定供应的基础;④加强需求侧管理是保障市场稳定供应的前提条件;⑤履行好企业社会责任和政治责任,为社会的稳定和谐发展作出贡献;⑥建设可靠的保障体系。