实物期权在房地产投资决策中应用研究

房地产项目投资具有不可逆性、高度不确定性和管理的灵活性,运用传统的净现值法不能挖掘出项目投资的这些性质所带来的价值,而应用实物期权方法进行房地产投资决策研究,不仅考虑到了房地产投资的不确定性,还体现了投资决策者的柔性管理和战略投资的价值。文章分析了传统净现值法的一些不足,介绍了实物期权的基本理论,并采用了B-S期权定价模型对房地产投资决策过程中蕴含的增长期权进行了案例分析,使得房地产投资决策更加科学合理。     

基于复合实物期权的PPP项目价值评估模型研究

考虑到PPP项目投资不可逆、不确定性因素多、投资决策动态分阶段等特征,文章将复合实物期权理论应用到PPP项目的投资决策过程中,构建了基于Geske复合实物期权的PPP项目价值评估模型。理论计算和实例分析表明,基于复合实物期权的价值评估模型能有效弥补传统净现值法和单一阶段实物期权投资决策方法评估结果偏差过大的问题,使PPP项目的投资决策过程更符合实际,评估结果更具客观性与合理性。     

基于实物期权的工程项目投资决策方法

本文针对传统净现值评价方法的局限性,探讨了实物期权新决策方法以及实物期权在工程项目中的价值驱动因素,更新了项目投资决策方法。     

基于实物期权法的风力发电企业价值评估研究

作为一种清洁无污染的可再生能源发电形式,中国风力发电装机容量逐年增加,所产生的环境效益显著。因此,科学客观地对风力发电企业价值进行评估显得尤为重要。传统的净现值法未能充分考虑风力发电企业的特点,忽略了其潜在的获利机会,实物期权法能够弥补净现值法的这种缺陷。文章分析了风力发电企业的期权特性,以内蒙古苏尼特左旗风电场为例,基于B-S模型评估其包含实物期权价值的企业整体价值。     

创业投资项目评价方法研究

<正>创业项目的选择很大程度上是依赖创业投资家的经验和直觉,但是一套科学、系统的项目选择评价方法,可以有效提高决策的效率和合理性,本文主要对实物期权法进行分析和研究。1.实物期权法在传统的投资项目价值评价中,通常采用的是贴现的现金流(DCF)法。这种方法假设第一年到第N年每年预计现金流为I1,I2…I,用投资的机会成本K作为贴现率得到该项目资金的净现值     

实物期权理论在项目可行性研究中的运用——以某钢铁企业技改项目为例

对实物期权相关理论及实物期权定价模型进行了介绍,通过实例,将实物期权理论引入投资项目的可行性研究中,解决了传统评价方法可能会低估项目价值的弊端,可供项目可行性研究人员借鉴。     

房地产开发评估的实物期权方法

房地产开发是高风险,其开发环境具有高度的不确定性,传统的投资项目价值评估方法如净现值法或折现现金流法常常低估了房地产的投资价值。应用实物期权的理论和方法,讨论了房地产开发项目在不确定性下的投资机会价值,为房地产项目的投资决策提供了一种新的方法。     

基于复合实物期权的高速公路项目价值评估

高速公路建设项目的投资建设具有多阶段、多期性特征,在建设过程中,受项目所在区域的社会与经济发展诸多不确定性因素影响,传统的价值评估方法难以对高速公路建设项目的不确定性进行价值评估。文章对高速公路建设项目所具有的实物期权特性进行分析,把项目的投资建设过程分为"项目建设期""后续可开发项目建设期""稳定运营期"三个阶段,剖析了项目在各阶段蕴含的实物期权。同时利用Geske模型构建了高速公路建设项目投资价值评估模型,并对计算方法、步骤等进行了阐释。实际案例运用表明,基于Geske模型的高速公路项目投资价值评估模型优于传统的净现值评估方法。     

基于投资价值的经营性PPP项目投资决策分析

以经营性PPP项目为例,在综合考虑经营性PPP项目本质的基础上,引入实物期权模型和净现值模型分析项目的投资价值,并与投资的机会成本进行比较。然后将该模型应用于某市特许经营PPP项目进行实证分析,为社会资本参与经营性PPP项目提供决策依据。     

实物期权--旅游房地产投资决策新方法

旅游房地产业是新兴的高风险行业,投入和回报存在极大的不确定性。本文通过分析旅游房地产投资特征,认为传统净现值法不适合旅游房地产的投资决策。为此,引入实物期权理论,指出旅游房地产投资中的期权特征和类型。最后,列举实例说明实物期权理论在旅游房地产投资中的实际运用。     

实物期权在城市轨道交通PPP 项目决策中的应用

根据北京地铁4 号线PPP 项目遇到的实际问题构建模型,将实物期权理论引入解决车站停车场建设规模决策的问题。通过设计Excel 表计算引入实物期权后不同方案的期望NPV,既解决了一般期权定价困难的问题,又将期权理论与PPP 项目紧密结合,发现实物期权对于PPP 项目决策过程的优化起到了非常明显的作用。特别是处理不确定性给PPP 项目的谈判、决策、执行过程造成困难时,实物期权能够发挥更大的作用,可以作为决策者改善决策合理性的手段,也可以为公私双方化解核心矛盾取得一致意见提供有效帮助。     

严寒地区节能监测和节能量核定数据在公共机构能耗定额指标修正中的应用研究

2019年国家机关事务管理局印发了《公共机构能耗定额标准编制和应用指南(试行)》,用于指导全国各省市制定适合本地实际情况的《公共机构能耗定额标准》。在黑龙江省公共机构用能定额标准编制过程中,近5年的公共建筑节能监测平台数据和公共建筑节能改造项目节能量核定数据在修正统计数据,处理特殊用能,合理设定能耗定额值等方面可以发挥重要作用。通过统计、监测、核定三类数据的分析研究,对严寒地区公共机构能耗定额指标中单位面积供暖能耗和特殊用能修正给出应用建议,从而更加科学的设定严寒地区公共机构能耗定额指标。     

贵州省某办公建筑用电能耗监测分析

在国家机关办公建筑和大型公共建筑能耗监测平台的基础上,运用智能建筑能耗监测技术,实现实时动态监测建筑用能及用能设备的运行情况;掌握建筑物各类设备能耗的基本数据,详细了解建筑物的每一项数据,在平台上将采集的数据数字化及信息化,通过对数据的对比分析,发现造成建筑物能源浪费的行为及漏洞,针对能耗较大的用能项目进行重点监测,为能耗分项计量、定额管理提供科学依据,分析和总结建筑能耗的规律,找出建筑高耗能所在,提出详细可行的节能改造方案。     

An option pricing-based model for evaluating the financial viability of privatized infrastructure projects

Privatized infrastructure projects have to demonstrate their financial and technical viability before they are undertaken. Although it is relatively easy to demonstrate the technical viability of an infrastructure project, the evaluation of the financial viability of a privatized infrastructure project is complex and challenging, mainly because of the uncertainties involved due to the project's scale, long concession period and complexity. Traditional methods, such as net present value (NPV) analysis, fall short in reflecting the characteristics of privatized infrastructure projects and the risks involved. This paper presents an option pricing based model, the BOT option valuation (BOT-OV) model, for evaluating the financial viability of a privatized infrastructure project. This quantitative model considers the project characteristics explicitly and evaluates the project from the perspectives of the project promoter and of the government when the project is under bankruptcy risk. Moreover, the model can evaluate the impact of the government guarantee and the developer negotiation option on the project financial viability.     

基于能耗监测数据的建筑节能改造分析

2005年以前的大型公共建筑在围护结构、用能设备等方面节能设计要求较低,导致其空调系统现在运行能耗较高,对这些老建筑实施节能改造已是迫切的需求。从既有大型公共建筑空调系统节能改造的角度出发,利用建筑能耗实时监测数据,对建筑空调系统的用能情况进行分析,对比计算机能耗模拟结果,分析存在差距的原因,对空调系统能源利用的合理性做出评价,并提出相应的改造建议。     

公共建筑能耗监测与管理系统关键技术研究

对于公共建筑能耗监测与管理系统,更加有效地实施建筑能耗统计及建筑节能管理具有重要的意义。本文结合我国建筑能耗的实际情况,在对公共建筑能耗监测与管理系统进行需求分析的基础上,首先建立了系统的结构框架,给出了能耗数据获取及传输的具体方法;而后设计和实现了数据监测、数据分析与数据维护管理软件平台的开发;最后对能耗评价体系和数据挖掘方法进行讨论。实际运行测试结果表明,该系统数据传输安全可靠、管理方便,能够实现建筑能耗的在线监测和动态分析。     

复合实物期权在风电项目投资评估中的应用

与传统的能源发电投资相比,风电项目投资存在更多风险因素,从而带来了更大的不确定性,为确保风电项目投资的效益,无论对风电项目投资者而言,还是从我国风能资源发展角度出发,都迫切需要一个可量化风险的投资决策工具来辅助指导投资者做出科学的投资决策。基于实物期权理论的投资决策方法能有效地处理投资中各种风险因素带来的不确定性,弥补传统NPV 法在这方面的不足,是一种更为科学、合理的投资决策评价方法。针对风电项目工程具有的复合实物期权特性,提出了在风电项目投资决策中引入复合实物期权思路和模型,并以实例讨论了Geske 复合期权定价模型的应用方法,验证了实物期权方法在评估风电项目投资项目价值时的有效性。     

Application of the Building Environmental Performance Model (BEPM) in Hong Kong

Since the energy crisis of 1973, engineers have endeavoured to implement energy conservation in buildings. Unfortunately, their efforts have often resulted in energy saving which ignores the fundamental delivery of indoor satisfaction. Hence, either energy is conserved sacrificing indoor environmental quality (IEQ), or additional energy is consumed for the cooling of occupancy space. These misconceptions have prompted the development of an integrated design and operation protocol based on a so-called Building Environmental Performance Model (BEPM).The Building Environmental Performance Model links the IEQ and the building energy consumption together. It treats a building as a system. Energy consumption in the building services systems is the input to this system with the IEQ as the output. The BEP model incorporates two main modules: an adaptive comfort temperature control module (ACT) and a new CO₂ demand control module (nDCV). These two modules (ACT and nDCV) take an innovative approach and help maintain satisfaction levels as well as optimum energy consumption.The BEP model was built into an algorithm for implementation in a Direct Digital Control system. It was used in a longitudinal monitoring study in a typical Hong Kong office, so that the usefulness of the model could be verified. It was found that the BEPM was able to save up to 15% of total energy used, and maintain the occupant dissatisfaction rate of thermal comfort and indoor air quality at around 20%.The incentive of the BEPM can be deduced from a simple life cycle costing analysis. It assumes an inflation rate and bank interest rate of 8 and 10%, respectively, the total net present value (NPV) for the original airside system is higher than that employing the BEPM by HK$ 19,700,000 for 20 years of operation.     

A methodology for energy-efficient renovation of existing residential buildings in China and case study

Energy-efficient renovation had been accepted widely as the best solution for aging residential buildings. In order to guide such real projects in China and maximize the benefits in energy, environmental and economic fields from these activities, this article developed a methodology to assist decision-makers to design energy-efficient renovation plan in the early stage of design phase, and used a case study to demonstrate how to apply it. Following it, a suitable energy-efficient renovation plan, integrating all effective and available energy-saving measures, could be put forward for the subject building, and its effects on reduction of energy consumption, CO₂ emission and cost be evaluated accurately. The results showed that from the viewpoint of reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emission, energy-efficient renovation was worth being implemented to upgrade the existing residential buildings in China, but from the economic view, governments should provide certain subsidy for such real projects and increase electricity price.     

Valuation techniques for infrastructure investment decisions

Public infrastructure owners are increasingly soliciting BOT arrangements to deliver needed infrastructure facilities. Such arrangements potentially preserve a public owner's capital capacity for allocation to projects that cannot support themselves by essentially ‘pulling’ projects from the private sector. Before soliciting these arrangements, however, owners should independently evaluate a project's economic viability to fully appraise the issues and variables involved. Unfortunately, project analysts often apply evaluation methods without regard for their assumptions and limitations. A case study of a toll road project in the USA provides the basis for examining the assumptions behind both traditional and option valuation models. The case demonstrates the use of an option pricing model to augment traditional project evaluation by capturing strategic considerations, in this case the value of project deferment. The presentation illustrates that the selection of a valuation model depends critically upon the characteristics of a project's variables and that informed judgment remains an integral part of the decision‐making process.