地下水数值模拟的不确定性分析在水质预测中的应用

在传统地下水水质预测研究中,一般通过实测水文地质参数求解地下水数值模拟模型得出预测结果,未考虑水文地质参数取值对预测结果造成的影响,应用蒙特卡洛方法对地下水数值模拟模型进行不确定性分析,且为减小蒙特卡洛模拟的计算量,通过局部敏感性分析筛选主要参数对模型降维;为节省蒙特卡洛模拟的时间,建立并调用替代模型进行蒙特卡洛模拟;最后通过置信区间估计法对蒙特卡洛模拟结果进行定量描述。结果表明,通过局部敏感性分析可快速识别产生不确定性的主要参数;在进行蒙特卡洛模拟时调用替代模型能在保证一定精度的前提下节省大量模拟时间;对模拟结果运用区间估计法进行分析,可以得到污染物在不同浓度区间的发生概率,所得结论用于地下水污染的风险预测更符合实际情况。     

基于小波神经网络替代模型的抽水井涌水量计算方法

影响抽水井涌水量的水文地质因素多且存在不确定性,采用确定性模型模拟会导致较大的误差。以某研究区抽水井涌水量为依据,建立该地区地下水不确定性数值模型。采用参数敏感性分析确定对抽水井涌水量影响较大的水文地质参数,随后用改进的随机进化算法在参数取值范围内抽样,最后将抽样参数输入地下水数值模型中计算抽水井涌水量。根据输入、输出数据集建立小波神经网络模型代替地下水数值模型。研究结果表明,不同工况下基于小波神经网络替代模型计算结果与数值模拟结果相差不大,两者误差在10%以内,表明用小波神经网络替代模型满足精度要求,且避免了传统数值模型的反复试算,计算简便、效率高,且因其可公式化,扩大了在推求地下水抽水井涌水量方面的应用。     

地下水模型参数不确定性对晋祠泉流量预测的影响

鉴于地下水数值模拟模型预测结果受参数不确定性的影响较大,故以晋祠泉域岩溶地下水系统为例,在建立研究区地下水流数值模型的基础上,选择研究区水文地质参数为代表参数,利用GLUE方法进行初步敏感性分析得出对晋祠泉流量预测最敏感的参数为渗透系数,并筛选出167组较优渗透系数组合,再通过其与不同气象和压采条件下的六个方案的结合进行模拟预测,从而定量分析渗透系数的不确定性对晋祠泉流量预测的影响。结果表明,整体上模型参数的不确定性对泉流量预测产生了较大影响,在开采量大且补给量较小的条件下影响最大,在压采且补给量大的条件下影响最小,但仅压采或仅补源并非加快晋祠泉复流的有效措施。     

基于RBF替代模型的氯化物浓度计算方法

地下水溶质运移不确定性受多种因素影响,其中参数不确定性最为重要。为提高地下水溶质运移的模拟精度,基于参数不确定性建立某垃圾填埋场溶质运移随机模型,通过参数敏感性分析得到影响该区域氯化物运移的水文地质参数,以最优目标进行矩阵设计选出代表性较好的输入参数并将其代入随机模型中进行蒙特卡罗分析,并基于RBF模型建立该区域的氯化物运移替代模型进行氯化物浓度预测。结果表明,多次随机模拟结果的平均值与实测值无论从数值大小或范围均吻合较好,各监测点氯化物浓度分布近似呈正态分布;RBF模型预测数值模拟结果与数值模型运算效果相差10%以内,预测结果具有一定的可靠性,可用于该地区地下水氯化物浓度预测预警及水资源管理的风险规避。     

基于HydroGeoSphere的地下水数值模拟及参数灵敏度分析

针对地下水数值模拟中参数的不确定性直接影响模拟结果的准确性问题,在分析概化吉林省西部水文地质条件基础上,建立了水文地质概念模型和地下水数学模型,采用HydroGeoSphere软件求解模型,并选取含水层的渗透系数、给水度及贮水系数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明,含水层的给水度和贮水系数对模拟结果的影响较大,且获得了敏感性最大的参数分区,为该区地下水资源的合理开发利用和管理提供了科学依据。     

给定井内水头条件下含水层补给井数值模拟方法

为合理模拟给定井内水头条件下地下水人工补给井补给过程,在地下水流数值模拟有限差法程序中加入Thiem公式校正。通过理想算例分析了含水层渗透系数、给水度、地下水埋深及数值模型时空离散尺度对补给井流量计算精度的影响,经实例分析探讨该方法的应用效果。结果表明,给水度、渗透系数等水文地质参数变化对模拟计算结果影响明显,与给定补给流量的传统模拟方法相比,Thiem公式修正法考虑了水头变化对补给量的影响,合理模拟了补给量的动态变化过程。研究成果为模拟补给量的动态变化过程提供了一种方法,为深入分析水文地质参数非均质性对计算结果的影响奠定了基础。     

基于GLUE方法的二维水动力模型不确定性研究

不确定性分析对于识别、评估模型计算过程中主要误差来源及其对于计算结果的影响十分必要。为此,评估了广义似然不确定性估计(GLUE)在水动力模型中对大汶河下游大清河流域二维水动力模型计算结果不确定性的影响,并利用互信息法分析模型参数和边界条件对预测结果的敏感性。结果表明,糙率对于输出结果的敏感性最强,边界条件对于输出结果的敏感程度稍弱;GLUE方法可有效分析参数-边界条件的不确定性,其预测的不确定性区间对于实测值的覆盖率较高,但模拟精度有待进一步提升。     

基于大尺度模型约束的那陵格勒河重点区域地下水流数值模拟

以柴达木盆地那陵格勒河流域为例,探讨了通过大尺度地下水流数值模拟以提高重点区域模型可靠性的方法。首先建立流域典型剖面二维地下水数值模拟模型,将地下水流动系统分为浅部、中深部和深部三个级别的地下水交替循环带,然后结合重点研究区的范围,将其边界延伸扩展至水文地质条件较为清晰的边界上,建立较大区域尺度三维地下水数值模拟模型,再以此为基础,进一步建立重点研究区三维地下水数值模拟模型,可有效提高重点研究区地下水数值模型的可靠性。     

地下水环境影响评价中数值模拟的关键问题讨论

针对《环境影响评价技术导则地下水环境》(简称《导则》)中利用数值模拟技术进行地下水量和水质的影响预测评价工作在技术应用方法上存在的诸多问题,根据《导则》的具体要求,结合地下水环评项目的特点,提出了水文地质模型的概化、初始模型的建立和工况情景的设计与实现等三方面的关键问题,以多个项目实践经验为基础,基于FEFLOW平台,讨论了水文地质概念模型概化中的边界条件问题;对初始模型建立中的地表高程模型的生成、含水层结构的刻画、空间离散等三维地质建模问题给出了技术方案;并论述了边界条件及参数的输入、模型的校准和验证等初始流场建立工作中的基本工作方法和原则;同时探讨了弥散参数的确定、污染物总量的控制、连续源强和间断源强的设计实现、抽排水等工况设置方面的问题,以期为地下水环境影响评价中数值模拟工作的开展提供技术思路,同时为《导则》内容的实施提供一定的参考。     

地表水与地下水耦合模型开发与验证!

鉴于研究地表水与地下水的相互作用及其分布规律可为"海绵城市"建设提供依据,对地表水与地下水的耦合模型进行了开发,在浅水模型的基础上增加地下水模块,并在连续性方程中添加源汇项,实现地表水与地下水垂向上的耦合,同时选用Green-Ampt模型计算地表水的下渗量。通过算例分析,将模型计算结果与数值试验及预期值进行对比,验证了模型的可行性。     

Performance assessment of some ice TES systems

In this paper, a performance assessment of four main types of ice storage techniques for space cooling purposes, namely ice slurry systems, ice-on-coil systems (both internal and external melt), and encapsulated ice systems is conducted. A detailed analysis, coupled with a case study based on the literature data, follows. The ice making techniques are compared on the basis of energy and exergy performance criteria including charging, discharging and storage efficiencies, which make up the ice storage and retrieval process. Losses due to heat leakage and irreversibilities from entropy generation are included. A vapor-compression refrigeration cycle with R134a as the working fluid provides the cooling load, while the analysis is performed in both a full storage and partial storage process, with comparisons between these two. In the case of full storage, the energy efficiencies associated with the charging and discharging processes are well over 98% in all cases, while the exergy efficiencies ranged from 46% to 76% for the charging cycle and 18% to 24% for the discharging cycle. For the partial storage systems, all energy and exergy efficiencies were slightly less than that for full storage, due to the increasing effect wall heat leakage has on the decreased storage volume and load. The results show that energy analyses alone do not provide much useful insight into system behavior, since the vast majority of losses in all processes are a result of entropy generation which results from system irreversibilities.     

Effect of co-cultivation of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii with Azotobacter chroococcum on hydrogen production

Chlamydomonas reinhardtii cc124 and Azotobacter chroococcum bacteria were co-cultured with a series of volume ratios and under a variety of light densities to determine the optimal culture conditions and to investigate the mechanism by which co-cultivation improves H₂ yield. The results demonstrated that the optimal culture conditions for the highest H₂ production of the combined system were a 1:40 vol ratio of bacterial cultures to algal cultures under 200 μE m^?2 s^?1. Under these conditions, the maximal H₂ yield was 255 μmol mg^?1 Chl, which was approximately 15.9-fold of the control. The reasons for the improvement in H₂ yield included decreased O₂ content, enhanced algal growth, and increased H₂ase activity and starch content of the combined system.     

Exergetic evaluation of 5 biowastes-to-biofuels routes via gasification

This paper presents the exergy analysis results for the production of several biofuels, i.e., SNG (synthetic natural gas), methanol, Fischer–Tropsch fuels, hydrogen, as well as heat and electricity, from several biowastes generated in the Dutch province of Friesland, selected as one of the typical European regions. Biowastes have been classified in 5 virtual streams according to their ultimate and proximate analysis. All production chains have been modeled in Aspen Plus in order to analyze their technical performance. The common steps for all the production chains are: pre-treatment, gasification, gas cleaning, water–gas-shift reactions, catalytic reactors, final gas separation and upgrading. Optionally a gas turbine and steam turbines are used to produce heat and electricity from unconverted gas and heat removal, respectively. The results show that, in terms of mass conversion, methanol production seems to be the most efficient process for all the biowastes. SNG synthesis is preferred when exergetic efficiency is the objective parameter, but hydrogen process is more efficient when the performance is analyzed by means of the 1st Law of Thermodynamics. The main exergy losses account for the gasification section, except in the electricity and heat production chain, where the combined cycle is less efficient.     

液压系统常见的故障诊断及处理

任何工程机械式液压设备使用时出现故障是不可避免的。但是怎样确定故障的原因及找到好的解决方法，这是使用者最关心的问题。讲述了液压系统常见的故障及其排除方法。     

Natural-gas fueled spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engine performance and emissions

Natural gas is a fossil fuel that has been used and investigated extensively for use in spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engines. Compared with conventional gasoline engines, SI engines using natural gas can run at higher compression ratios, thus producing higher thermal efficiencies but also increased nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, while producing lower emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), unburned hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO). These engines also produce relatively less power than gasoline-fueled engines because of the convergence of one or more of three factors: a reduction in volumetric efficiency due to natural-gas injection in the intake manifold; the lower stoichiometric fuel/air ratio of natural gas compared to gasoline; and the lower equivalence ratio at which these engines may be run in order to reduce NO_x emissions. High NO_x emissions, especially at high loads, reduce with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). However, EGR rates above a maximum value result in misfire and erratic engine operation. Hydrogen gas addition increases this EGR threshold significantly. In addition, hydrogen increases the flame speed of the natural gas-hydrogen mixture. Power levels can be increased with supercharging or turbocharging and intercooling. Natural gas is used to power CI engines via the dual-fuel mode, where a high-cetane fuel is injected along with the natural gas in order to provide a source of ignition for the charge. Thermal efficiency levels compared with normal diesel-fueled CI-engine operation are generally maintained with dual-fuel operation, and smoke levels are reduced significantly. At the same time, lower NO_x and CO₂ emissions, as well as higher HC and CO emissions compared with normal CI-engine operation at low and intermediate loads are recorded. These trends are caused by the low charge temperature and increased ignition delay, resulting in low combustion temperatures. Another factor is insufficient penetration and distribution of the pilot fuel in the charge, resulting in a lack of ignition centers. EGR admission at low and intermediate loads increases combustion temperatures, lowering unburned HC and CO emissions. Larger pilot fuel quantities at these load levels and hydrogen gas addition can also help increase combustion efficiency. Power output is lower at certain conditions than diesel-fueled engines, for reasons similar to those affecting power output of SI engines. In both cases the power output can be maintained with direct injection. Overall, natural gas can be used in both engine types; however further refinement and optimization of engines and fuel-injection systems is needed.     

Economie d'énergie en trigénération

Trigeneration is defined as the production of three useful forms of energy—heat, cold and power—from a primary source of energy such as natural gas or oil. For instance, trigeneration systems typically produce electrical power via a reciprocating engine or gas turbine and recover a large percentage of the heat energy retained in the lubricating oil, exhaust gas and coolant water systems to maximize the utilization of the primary fuel. The heat produced can be totally or partially used to fuel absorption refrigerators. Therefore, trigeneration systems enjoy an inherently high efficiency and have the potential to significantly reduce the energy-related operation costs of facilities. In this paper, we describe a model of characterization of trigeneration systems trough the condition of primary energy saving and the quality index, compared to the separate production of heat, cold and power. The study highlights the importance of the choice of the separate production reference system on the level of primary energy saving and emissions reduction.     

Mineralogical characterization of the intraseam layers of Lofoi lignite deposits in Florina basin (western Makedonia,northwest Greece)

The mineralogical composition of intraseam layers from Lofoi lignite deposits (northwest Greece) is the subject of the present study. The samples were examined by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermo-gravimetric (TG/DTG) and differential thermal analysis (DTA), and Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrometry. The clay minerals prevail in most samples, with illite-muscovite being the dominant phase, and kaolinite and chlorite being the other major clay components. No smectite was found. Quartz and feldspars, dominate in two cases. The studied materials are characterized as clays to clayey sands, showing significant similarities with the intraseam layers of the adjacent Achlada lignite deposits.     

Innovative methodologies in renewable energy: A review

This paper is concerned with innovative approaches to renewable energy sources computation methodologies, which provide more refined results than the classical alternatives. Such refinements provide additional improvements especially for replacement of fossil energy usages that emit greenhouse gas (GHG) into the atmosphere leading to climate change impact. Current knowledge gap among each renewable energy source calculation is rather missing fundamentals of plausible, rational, and logical explanations for the interpretation of results. In the literature, there are rather complicated and mechanically applicable methodologies, which require input and output measurement data match with missing physical explanations. The view taken in this review paper is to concentrate on quite plausible, logical, rational, and effectively applicable innovative energy calculation methodologies with simplistic fundamentals. For this purpose, a set of renewable energy methodological approaches is revisited with their innovative structures concerning solar, wind, hydro, current, and geothermal energy resources. With the increase in the renewable energy utilizations to combat the undesirable impacts of global warming and climate change, there is a need for better models that will include physical environmental conditions and data properties in the probabilistic, statistical, stochastic, logical, and rational senses leading to refined and more reliable estimations with application examples in the text. Finally, new research directions are also recommended for more refined innovative energy system calculations.     

Decomposition of limestone in a solar reactor

The thermal decomposition of limestone has been selected as a model reaction for developing and testing an atmospheric open solar reactor. The reactor consists of a cyclone gas/particle separator which has been modified to let the concentrated solar energy enter through a windowless aperture. The reacting particles are directly exposed to the solar irradiation. Experimentation with a 60 kW reactor prototype was conducted at PSI's 90m² parabolic solar concentrator, in a continuous mode of operation. A counter-current flow heat exchanger was employed to preheat the reactants. Eighty five percent degree of calcination was obtained for cement raw material and 15% of the solar input was converted into chemical energy (enthalpy).The technical feasibility of the solar thermal decomposition of limestone was experimentally demonstrated. The use of solar energy as a source for high-temperature process heat offers the potential of reducing significantly the CO₂ emissions from lime producing plants. Such a solar thermochemical process can find application in sunny rural areas for avoiding deforestation.     

Constrained Optimization of Heat Transfer from an Extended Surface

Two different zero‐order optimization techniques are used to maximize the rates of heat transfer from a fin assembly of a specified cost and in the shape of several annular fins that are mounted on a central stem. The problem is formulated to account for two‐dimensional steady‐state heat transfer that is limited by several inequality constraints. The dimensionless governing equations are used to identify the relevant decision variables. The number of fins making up the assembly is treated as an input parameter. A digital computer is used to determine the required temperature distributions and to implement the optimization search algorithms. Three different fin materials are assessed—aluminum, copper and carbon steel. Design optimizations of the extended surface assembly were made over a range of operating conditions, encompassing several different convection heat transfer coefficients that are representative of free and forced convection in air, and several different overall temperature differences between the substrate surface and air. A few recommendations based on trends in the predicted results are given. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Heat Trans Asian Res, 43(6): 504–521, 2014; Published online 3 October 2013 in Wiley Online Library ( wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/htj ). DOI 10.1002/htj.21093