Impact of mandating a driving lesson for older drivers at license renewal in Japan

In Japan, a driving lesson consisting of a lecture, a driver aptitude test, on-road driving assessment and a discussion session was added to the driving license renewal procedure for drivers aged 75 years or older in 1998 and for drivers aged 70 years or older in 2002. We investigated whether these additions contributed to a reduction in at-fault motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) by examining the trend of the at-fault MVC rates per licensed driver and the rate ratios of the older drivers relative to those aged 65–69 years for the years 1986–2011. All data were derived from nationwide traffic statistics. If the introduction of the lesson was effective in reducing at-fault MVCs of older drivers, the rate ratio should have declined, given that the lesson targeted only the older drivers. We found this was not the case, i.e., there was no declining trend in the at-fault MVC rate ratios of both drivers aged 75 years or older and drivers aged 70 years or older, relative to drivers aged 65–69 years, after the driving lesson at license renewal became mandatory for these older drivers. Therefore, the mandatory lesson for the older drivers at license renewal needs to be reconsidered.     

Risky behavior of bus commuters and bus drivers in Karachi, Pakistan.

Buses account for a disproportionate number of road traffic accident fatalities in Karachi, Pakistan and other developing countries. Potentially dangerous bus driving and commuting practices that increase risk of road accidents and the effect of traffic police on bus behavior are evaluated. A total of 250 episodes each of disembarking and embarking commuters, buses stopping and moving on the road at ten of Karachi's highest risk intersections for traffic injuries were observed. Of the disembarking passengers, 33% did not wait for the bus to stop; 54% stepped off in the center of the road and 84% did not look out for traffic. Among the embarking commuters, 38% got on moving buses; 73% climbed on buses filled to their outer foot boards and 83% waited for buses on the street. Males were more likely than females to jump off a moving bus (43% versus 1.6%, P < 0.001), get on a moving bus (49% versus 12%, P < 0.001), and run to catch a bus (45% versus 8%, P < 0.001). At the bus stops, 30% of the buses did not stop completely; 46% stopped away from the stop and 79% stopped in the center of the road. Where traffic police were present buses were more likely to race (9% versus 3%, P = 0.05) and to cut off other vehicles (13% versus 2%, P = 0.001) than where police were absent. Risky behavior is common among both Karachi bus drivers and bus commuters. The traditional efforts to regulate bus traffic through traffic police is ineffective.     

Crash involvement of drivers with multiple crashes

A goal for any licensing agency is the ability to identify high-risk drivers. Kentucky data show that a significant number of drivers are repeatedly involved in crashes. The objective of this study is the development of a crash prediction model that can be used to estimate the likelihood of a driver being at fault for a near future crash occurrence. Multiple logistic regression techniques were employed using the available data for the Kentucky licensed drivers. This study considers as crash predictors the driver's total number of previous crashes, citations accumulated, the time gap between the latest two crashes, crash type, and demographic factors. The driver's total number of previous crashes was further disaggregated into the drivers' total number of previous at-fault and not-at-fault crashes. The model can be used to correctly classify at-fault drivers up to 74.56% with an overall efficiency of 63.34%. The total number of previous at-fault crash involvements, and having previous driver license suspensions and traffic school referrals are strongly associated with a driver being responsible for a subsequent crash. In addition, a driver's likelihood to be at fault in a crash is higher for very young or very old, males, drivers with both speeding and non-speeding citations, and drivers that had a recent crash involvement. Thus, the model presented here enables agencies to more actively monitor the likelihood of a driver to be at fault in a crash.     

Characteristics of traffic crashes among young, middle-aged, and older drivers

An overview of the characteristics of traffic crashes among young, middle-aged and older drivers is presented. The results suggest that the youngest and the oldest drivers were more likely to be considered at-fault. With respect to crash characteristics, older drivers were less likely to have crashes involving driver fatigue, during the evening and early morning, on curved roads, during adverse weather, involving a single vehicle, and while traveling at high speeds. Conversely, older drivers were over-represented in crashes at intersections and/or involving failure to yield the right of way, unseen objects, and failure to heed stop signs or signals. Crashes occurring while turning and changing lanes were also more common among older drivers. Alcohol was less likely to be a factor in traffic crashes involving older adults. Synthesizing these results led to the conclusion that the primary problem with the young is risk-taking and lack of skill. The strength of older drivers lies in their aversion to risk, but perceptual problems and difficulty judging and responding to traffic flow often counterbalance this attribute.     

Statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes

Traditional methods for determining crash responsibility – most commonly moving violation citations – may not accurately characterize at-fault status among crash-involved drivers given that: (1) issuance may vary by factors that are independent of fault (e.g., driver age, gender), and (2) these methods do not capture driver behaviors that are not illegal but still indicative of fault. We examined the statistical implications of using moving violations to determine crash responsibility in young driver crashes by comparing it with a method based on crash-contributing driver actions. We selected all drivers in police-reported passenger-vehicle crashes (2010–2011) that involved a New Jersey driver <21 years old (79,485 drivers < age 21, 61,355 drivers ≥ age 21). For each driver, crash responsibility was determined from the crash report using two alternative methods: (1) issuance of a moving violation citation; and (2) presence of a driver action (e.g., failure to yield, inattention). Overall, 18% of crash-involved drivers were issued a moving violation while 50% had a driver action. Only 32.2% of drivers with a driver action were cited for a moving violation. Further, the likelihood of being cited given the presence of a driver action was higher among certain driver subgroups—younger drivers, male drivers, and drivers in single-vehicle and more severe crashes. Specifically among young drivers, those driving at night, carrying peer passengers, and having a suspended or no license were more often cited. Conversely, fatally-injured drivers were almost never cited. We also demonstrated that using citation data may lead to statistical bias in the characterization of at-fault drivers and of quasi-induced exposure measures. Studies seeking to accurately determine crash responsibility should thoughtfully consider the potential sources of bias that may result from using legal culpability methods. For many studies, determining driver responsibility via the identification of driver actions may yield more accurate characterizations of at-fault drivers.     

The effects of driver training on simulated driving performance

Given that the beneficial effects of driver training on accident risk may not be an appropriate criterion measure, this study investigates whether professionally trained and experienced drivers exhibit safer driving behaviour in a simulated driving task compared with drivers without professional driver training. A sample of 54 police trained drivers and a sample of 56 non-police trained drivers were required to complete two tasks. Firstly to overtake a slow-moving bus on a hazardous stretch of single-lane road with bends and hills and secondly to follow a lead vehicle travelling at 55mph in a built-up section with a speed limit of 30mph. Results showed that in comparison with non-police trained drivers, police drivers were significantly less likely to cross the central division of the road at unsafe locations during the overtaking task and reduced their speed on approach to pedestrians at the roadside in the following task to a greater extent. Police drivers also adopted a more central lane position compared with non-police trained drivers on urban roads and at traffic lights during the following task. Driver group differences in simulated driving performance are discussed with reference to the implications for driver training assessment and skill development.     

Fatal traffic accidents among trailer truck drivers and accident causes as viewed by other truck drivers

Causality factors, the responsibility of the driver and driver fatigue-related factors were studied in fatal two-vehicle accidents where a trailer truck driver was involved during the period of 1991-1997 (n = 337). In addition, 251 long-haul truck drivers were surveyed in order to study their views regarding contributing factors in accidents involving trucks and the development of possible countermeasure against driver fatigue. Trailer truck drivers were principally responsible for 16% of all the accidents. Younger driver age and driving during evening hours were significant predictors of being principally responsible. In addition, the probability of being principally responsible for the accident increased by a factor of over three if the driver had a chronic illness. Prolonged driving preceding the accident, accident history or traffic offence history did not have a significant effect. Only 2% of the drivers were estimated to have fallen asleep while driving just prior to the accident, and altogether 4% of the drivers had been tired prior to the accident. Of the drivers 13% had however, been driving over 10 h preceding the accident (which has been criminally punishably in Finland since 1995 under the EC regulation) but no individual factors had a significant effect in predicting prolonged driving. The surveyed views regarding causes of truck accidents correspond well with the accident analysis. Accidents were viewed as being most often caused by other road users and driver fatigue was viewed to be no more than the fifth (out of eight) common cause of accidents. The probability of viewing fatigue as a more common cause increased significantly if the driver had experienced fatigue-related problems while driving. However, nearly half of the surveyed truck drivers expressed a negative view towards developing a technological countermeasure against driver fatigue. The negative view was not related to personal experiences of fatigue-related problems while driving.     

Powered two-wheeler drivers’ crash risk associated with the use of bus lanes

Context

Authorizing powered two-wheeler drivers to drive in lanes reserved to buses is a measure that is sometimes mentioned to improve mobility conditions for these users. But what effect would this measure have on the safety of these users and on the safety of the other users with whom they share the traffic space?

Objective

The objective of this study is to contribute elements to help answer this question. More precisely, the objective is to estimate the risk of having an accident per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes and to compare this risk with that of powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in general traffic lanes.

Method

Using the bodily injury accidents recorded by the police over two years on 13 roads in the city of Marseille and a campaign of periodical observations of powered two-wheeler traffic, we estimated the risk per kilometer driven by powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes and compared it with that of drivers who do not drive in them.

Results

The results show that the risk for powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes of being involved in a bodily injury accident is significantly higher than the risk run by drivers who drive in general traffic lanes. For the 13 roads studied, it is on average 3.25 times higher (95% CI: 2.03; 5.21).

Conclusion

In the current situation, powered two-wheeler drivers who drive in bus lanes are less safe than those who drive in general traffic lanes. The analysis of police reports suggests that part of this increased risk comes from collisions between automobile drivers turning right and powered two-wheelers driving in the bus lane who continue straight ahead.     

Older drivers’ crashes in Queensland,Australia

Background

The growing proportion of older adults in Australia is predicted to comprise 23% of the population by 2030. Accordingly, an increasing number of older drivers and fatal crashes of these drivers could also be expected. While the cognitive and physiological limitations of ageing and their road safety implications have been widely documented, research has generally considered older drivers as a homogeneous group. Knowledge of age-related crash trends within the older driver group itself is currently limited.

Objective

The aim of this research was to identify age-related differences in serious road crashes of older drivers. This was achieved by comparing crash characteristics between older and younger drivers and between sub-groups of older drivers. Particular attention was paid to serious crashes (crashes resulting in hospitalisation and fatalities) as they place the greatest burden on the Australian health system.

Method

Using Queensland Crash data, a total of 191,709 crashes of all-aged drivers (17–80+) over a 9-year period were analysed. Crash patterns of drivers’ aged 17–24, 25–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ were compared in terms of crash severity (e.g., fatal), at fault levels, traffic control measures (e.g., stop signs) and road features (e.g., intersections). Crashes of older driver sub-groups (60–69, 70–79, 80+) were also compared to those of middle-aged drivers (40–49 and 50–59 combined, who were identified as the safest driving cohort) with respect to crash-related traffic control features and other factors (e.g., speed). Confounding factors including speed and crash nature (e.g., sideswipe) were controlled for.

Results and discussion

Results indicated that patterns of serious crashes, as a function of crash severity, at-fault levels, road conditions and traffic control measures, differed significantly between age groups. As a group, older drivers (60+) represented the greatest proportion of crashes resulting in fatalities and hospitalisation, as well as those involving uncontrolled intersections and failure to give way. The opposite was found for middle-aged drivers, although they had the highest proportion of alcohol and speed-related crashes when compared to older drivers. Among all older drivers, those aged 60–69 were least likely to be involved in or the cause of crashes, but most likely to crash at interchanges and as a result of driving while fatigued or after consuming alcohol. Drivers aged 70–79 represented a mid-range level of crash involvement and culpability, and were most likely to crash at stop and give way signs. Drivers aged 80 years and beyond were most likely to be seriously injured or killed in, and at-fault for, crashes, and had the greatest number of crashes at both conventional and circular intersections. Overall, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of older drivers’ crash patterns and suggest that age-related differences must be considered in measures designed to improve older driver safety.     

The stability of driver acceleration behavior, and a replication of its relation to bus accidents

The reliability over time of a method for measuring driver acceleration behavior was tested on bus drivers in regular traffic. Also, a replication of an earlier finding of a correlation between driver acceleration behavior and accident frequency for the individual drivers was made. It was found that the split-half correlation is probably around 0.50 for the mean (of accelerations) of a 30-min drive, and similar for the test-retest of 2.5h measured about a month apart. With such reliability, the sample was probably too small to reliably determine any association with accidents, but some significant correlations were found. Some ways of holding constant the differences in exposure and driving environment were tried with mixed success. Alternate ways of analyzing the data and several methodological problems were briefly discussed. It was concluded that the measurements of acceleration behavior, for bus drivers, are fairly reliable over at least a few months. However, some strange discrepancies between samples make all interpretations concerning the link to accidents tentative.     

Examining the nonparametric effect of drivers’ age in rear-end accidents through an additive logistic regression model

This study seeks to inspect the nonparametric characteristics connecting the age of the driver to the relative risk of being an at-fault vehicle, in order to discover a more precise and smooth pattern of age impact, which has commonly been neglected in past studies. Records of drivers in two-vehicle rear-end collisions are selected from the general estimates system (GES) 2011 dataset. These extracted observations in fact constitute inherently matched driver pairs under certain matching variables including weather conditions, pavement conditions and road geometry design characteristics that are shared by pairs of drivers in rear-end accidents. The introduced data structure is able to guarantee that the variance of the response variable will not depend on the matching variables and hence provides a high power of statistical modeling. The estimation results exhibit a smooth cubic spline function for examining the nonlinear relationship between the age of the driver and the log odds of being at fault in a rear-end accident. The results are presented with respect to the main effect of age, the interaction effect between age and sex, and the effects of age under different scenarios of pre-crash actions by the leading vehicle. Compared to the conventional specification in which age is categorized into several predefined groups, the proposed method is more flexible and able to produce quantitatively explicit results. First, it confirms the U-shaped pattern of the age effect, and further shows that the risks of young and old drivers change rapidly with age. Second, the interaction effects between age and sex show that female and male drivers behave differently in rear-end accidents. Third, it is found that the pattern of age impact varies according to the type of pre-crash actions exhibited by the leading vehicle.     

An analysis of accident data for franchised public buses in Hong Kong

This paper analyses data on accidents involving franchised public buses operating in Hong Kong. The data were obtained from the Royal Hong Kong Police, the Hong Kong Government Transport Department, the two major franchised bus operators and international sources. The analysis includes an international comparison of accidents with emphasis on the situation in Hong Kong compared to urban areas in the United Kingdom. An attempt has been made to identify the characteristics of bus accidents; accident incidence has been related to time of day, day of the week, time of year, weather conditions, driver's age and experience, hours on duty and policy-reported cause. The results indicate that Hong Kong has a high accident rate compared to Japan, the U.K. and the U.S.A., with particularly high pedestrian involvement rates. Bus accidents peak at around 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM but the accident rate is high throughout the day. Monday and Saturday appear to have a higher than average accident rate. The variability of accident rate throughout the year does not seem to be significant and the accident rate does not appear to be influenced by weather conditions. Older, more experienced drivers generally have a safer driving record than their younger, less experienced colleagues. Accident occurrence is related to the time the driver has been on duty. The paper questions the reliability of police-reported accident causation data and suggests improvements in the design of the accident report form and in the training of police investigators. The relevance of the Hong Kong study for accident research in general is also discussed.     

Driver age and vehicle engine size effects on fault and severity in young motorcyclists accidents

This paper reports a study of the combined effect of driver age and engine size on accident severity and at-fault risk of young riders of two-wheelers. Data from the national accident database of Greece are used to calculate accident severity and relative fault risk rates. The induced exposure technique is applied due to the lack of exposure data. A log-linear analysis is then used to examine first- and second-order effects within three-variable groups. Accident severity modelling revealed a significant second-order interaction between severity, driver age and two-wheeler engine size. On the contrary, no second-order effects were identified in fault risk modelling. Moreover, a significant effect of driver age on accident fault risk was identified. The effect of engine size was not significant.     

Modeling traffic accident occurrence and involvement

The Negative Binomial modeling technique was used to model the frequency of accident occurrence and involvement. Accident data over a period of 3 years, accounting for 1,606 accidents on a principal arterial in Central Florida, were used to estimate the model. The model illustrated the significance of the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT), degree of horizontal curvature, lane, shoulder and median widths, urban/rural, and the section's length, on the frequency of accident occurrence. Several Negative Binomial models of the frequency of accident involvement were also developed to account for the demographic characteristics of the driver (age and gender). The results showed that heavy traffic volume, speeding, narrow lane width, larger number of lanes, urban roadway sections, narrow shoulder width and reduced median width increase the likelihood for accident involvement. Subsequent elasticity computations identified the relative importance of the variables included in the models. Female drivers experience more accidents than male drivers in heavy traffic volume, reduced median width, narrow lane width, and larger number of lanes. Male drivers have greater tendency to be involved in traffic accidents while speeding. The models also indicated that young and older drivers experience more accidents than middle aged drivers in heavy traffic volume, and reduced shoulder and median widths. Younger drivers have a greater tendency of being involved in accidents on roadway curves and while speeding.     

Fatal accident involvement rates by driver age for large trucks

Survey data on large trucks involved in fatal accidents and on the travel of large trucks provide estimates of fatal accident involvement rates by driver age. The analysis is focused on the implications of lowering the minimum age for drivers of commercial trucks operating interstate from 21 to 19 years. Fatal accident involvement rates for drivers of large trucks are found to increase with decreasing driver age. The younger drivers are over-involved until about age 27. Drivers under the age of 21 are over-involved by a factor of 6 in comparison to the overall rate for all drivers. Other factors known to have significant influences on the probability of involvement in a fatal accident were examined to determine their association with the over-involvement of younger drivers. The general pattern of over-involvement for younger drivers pervades virtually every combination of factors examined. Thus, it is concluded that the basic trend with driver age shown in the aggregate data is primarily associated with age and is not associated with the other factors examined. The results of this analysis substantiate an elevated risk of fatal accident involvement for younger drivers of large trucks.     

Personality and behavioral predictors of traffic accidents: testing a contextual mediated model

A contextual mediated model was proposed to distinguish the distal (i.e. personality factors) and proximal (i.e. aberrant driving behaviors) factors in predicting traffic accident involvement. Turkish professional drivers (N=295) answered a questionnaire including various measures of personality factors, driver behaviors, and accident history. Results of the latent variable analysis with LISREL indicated that latent variables in the distal context (i.e. psychological symptoms, sensation seeking, and aggression) predicted at least one of the proximal elements (i.e. aberrant behaviors, dysfunctional drinking, and preferred speed) with relatively high path coefficients. While aberrant driver behaviors yielded a direct effect on accident involvement, psychological symptoms yielded an indirect effect mediated by driver behaviors. Further analyses revealed that personality factors had an impact on road accidents via their effects on actual driving-related behaviors although the path coefficients in predicting accidents were relatively weaker than those predicting risky driving behaviors and habits. Results were discussed considering the implications for classifying the accident correlates in a contextual framework and binominal-poisson distribution of self-reported accidents.     

驾驶员风险驾驶行为及影响因素分析

为探究中国驾驶员风险驾驶行为产生的原因及其影响因素,利用修正的曼彻斯特DBQ问卷对349名中国驾驶员进行了问卷调查。经过探索性因素分析(EFA)得到了4因子结构模型,分别命名为认知错误、违规行为、无意失误和记忆力流失,并利用验证性因素分析(CFA)对该模型进行了验证。研究了性别与驾驶行为的关系,结果表明男性驾驶员更容易发生违规行为,而女性驾驶员发生无意失误行为的频率较男性驾驶员偏高。通过变量间的相关性分析,研究了驾驶员的统计学信息、4因子以及交通事故之间的关系,构建了基于Logistic回归的交通事故预测模型,研究表明违规行为和年龄是影响交通事故的重要参数。     

Driver celeration behaviour and accidents – an analysis

A theory of changes in speed of a vehicle (termed ‘celerations’) as an overall measure of driver behaviour regarding the control of the vehicle, and as a predictor of traffic accidents, is described. The driver behaviours that result in speed changes of vehicles are speed, close following, braking and steering control actions. Assuming that all speed change indicates risk, several testable predictions follow. The most important of these is that there is a positive association between drivers’ celeration sum and their accidents. Formulas for the measurement of celeration and the association with crashes are presented, as well as methodological principles for this. Relevant literature is reviewed, as well as the tests of various hypotheses undertaken so far. The suggested way of measuring driver behaviour and predicting accident involvement would be useful in many kinds of studies of driver behaviour, and also for testing and screening purposes and especially for large-scale monitoring of professional drivers.