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When the driver encounters a signal change from green to yellow, he is required to make a stop or go decision based on his speed and the distance to the stop bar making the wrong decision will lead to a red-light running violation or an abrupt stop at the intersection. In this study, a field data collection was conducted at a high-speed signalized intersection, where a video-based system with three cameras was used to record the drivers’ behavior related to the onset of yellow. Observed data include drivers’ stop/go decisions, red-light running violation, lane position in the highway, positions (leading/following) in the traffic flow, vehicle type, and vehicles’ yellow-onset speeds and distances from the intersection. Further, classification tree models were applied to analyze how the probabilities of a stop or go decision and of red-light running are associated with the traffic parameters. The data analysis indicated that vehicle's distance from the intersection at the onset of yellow, operating speed, and position in the traffic flow are the most important predictors for both the stop/go decision and red-light running violation. This study illustrates that the tree models are helpful to recognize and predict how drivers make stop/go decisions and partake in red-light running violations corresponding to the traffic parameters.  相似文献
2.
Taking evasive actions vis-à-vis critical traffic situations impending to motor vehicle crashes endows drivers an opportunity to avoid the crash occurrence or at least diminish its severity. This study explores the drivers, vehicles, and environments’ characteristics associated with crash avoidance maneuvers (i.e., evasive actions or no evasive actions). Rear-end collisions, head-on collisions, and angle collisions are analyzed separately using decision trees and the significance of the variables on the binary response variable (evasive actions or no evasive actions) is determined. Moreover, the random forests method is employed to rank the importance of the drivers/vehicles/environments characteristics on crash avoidance maneuvers. According to the exploratory analyses’ results, drivers’ visibility obstruction, drivers’ physical impairment, drivers’ distraction are associated with crash avoidance maneuvers in all three types of accidents. Moreover, speed limit is associated with rear-end collisions’ avoidance maneuvers and vehicle type is correlated with head-on collisions and angle collisions’ avoidance maneuvers. It is recommended that future research investigates further the explored trends (e.g., physically impaired drivers, visibility obstruction) using driving simulators which may help in legislative initiatives and in-vehicle technology recommendations.  相似文献
3.
This paper applies a nonparametric statistical method, hierarchical tree-based regression (HTBR), to explore train-vehicle crash prediction and analysis at passive highway-rail grade crossings. Using the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) database, the research focuses on 27 years of train-vehicle accident history in the United States from 1980 through 2006. A cross-sectional statistical analysis based on HTBR is conducted for public highway-rail grade crossings that were upgraded from crossbuck-only to stop signs without involvement of other traffic-control devices or automatic countermeasures. In this study, HTBR models are developed to predict train-vehicle crash frequencies for passive grade crossings controlled by crossbucks only and crossbucks combined with stop signs respectively, and assess how the crash frequencies change after the stop-sign treatment is applied at the crossbuck-only-controlled crossings. The study results indicate that stop-sign treatment is an effective engineering countermeasure to improve safety at the passive grade crossings. Decision makers and traffic engineers can use the HTBR models to examine train-vehicle crash frequency at passive crossings and assess the potential effectiveness of stop-sign treatment based on specific attributes of the given crossings.  相似文献
4.
This study seeks to inspect the nonparametric characteristics connecting the age of the driver to the relative risk of being an at-fault vehicle, in order to discover a more precise and smooth pattern of age impact, which has commonly been neglected in past studies. Records of drivers in two-vehicle rear-end collisions are selected from the general estimates system (GES) 2011 dataset. These extracted observations in fact constitute inherently matched driver pairs under certain matching variables including weather conditions, pavement conditions and road geometry design characteristics that are shared by pairs of drivers in rear-end accidents. The introduced data structure is able to guarantee that the variance of the response variable will not depend on the matching variables and hence provides a high power of statistical modeling. The estimation results exhibit a smooth cubic spline function for examining the nonlinear relationship between the age of the driver and the log odds of being at fault in a rear-end accident. The results are presented with respect to the main effect of age, the interaction effect between age and sex, and the effects of age under different scenarios of pre-crash actions by the leading vehicle. Compared to the conventional specification in which age is categorized into several predefined groups, the proposed method is more flexible and able to produce quantitatively explicit results. First, it confirms the U-shaped pattern of the age effect, and further shows that the risks of young and old drivers change rapidly with age. Second, the interaction effects between age and sex show that female and male drivers behave differently in rear-end accidents. Third, it is found that the pattern of age impact varies according to the type of pre-crash actions exhibited by the leading vehicle.  相似文献
5.
Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types.  相似文献
6.
This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time.  相似文献
7.
This study evaluates rear-end crash risk associated with work zone operations for four different vehicle-following patterns: car–car, car–truck, truck–car and truck–truck. The deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) is adopted to measure work zone rear-end crash risk. Results show that the car–truck following pattern has the largest rear-end crash risk, followed by truck–truck, truck–car and car–car patterns. This implies that it is more likely for a car which is following a truck to be involved in a rear-end crash accident. The statistical test results further confirm that rear-end crash risk is statistically different between any two of the four patterns. We therefore develop a rear-end crash risk model for each vehicle-following pattern in order to examine the relationship between rear-end crash risk and its influencing factors, including lane position, the heavy vehicle percentage, lane traffic flow and work intensity which can be characterized by the number of lane reductions, the number of workers and the amount of equipment at the work zone site. The model results show that, for each pattern, there will be a greater rear-end crash risk in the following situations: (i) heavy work intensity; (ii) the lane adjacent to work zone; (iii) a higher proportion of heavy vehicles and (iv) greater traffic flow. However, the effects of these factors on rear-end crash risk are found to vary according to the vehicle-following patterns. Compared with the car–car pattern, lane position has less effect on rear-end crash risk in the car–truck pattern. The effect of work intensity on rear-end crash risk is also reduced in the truck–car pattern.  相似文献
8.
Driving on curved roads has been recognized as a significant safety issue for many years. However, driver behavior and the interactions among variables that affect driver performance on curves is complicated and not well understood. Previous studies have investigated various factors that influence driver performance on right- or left-turn curves, but have paid little attention to the effects of foggy weather, driver experience and gender on driver performance on complex curves. A driving simulator experiment was conducted in this study to evaluate the relationships between driving behavior on a continuous S-curve and foggy weather, driver experience and gender. The process of negotiating a curve was divided into three stages consisting of a straight segment, the transition from the straight segment to the S-curve and the S-curve. The experimental results indicated that drivers tended to drive more cautiously in heavy fog, but the driving risk was still increased, especially in the transition stage from the straight segment to the S-curve. The non-professional (NP) drivers were less sensitive to the impending change in the road geometry, and less skilled in both longitudinal and lateral vehicle control than the professional drivers. The NP female drivers in particular were found to be the most vulnerable group in S-curve driving.  相似文献
9.
This study investigates the drivers’ merging behavior and the rear-end crash risk in work zone merging areas during the entire merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. With the merging traffic data from a work zone site in Singapore, a mixed probit model is developed to describe the merging behavior, and two surrogate safety measures including the time to collision (TTC) and deceleration rate to avoid the crash (DRAC) are adopted to compute the rear-end crash risk between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. Results show that the merging vehicle has a bigger probability of completing a merging maneuver quickly under one of the following situations: (i) the merging vehicle moves relatively fast; (ii) the merging lead vehicle is a heavy vehicle; and (iii) there is a sizable gap in the adjacent through lane. Results indicate that the rear-end crash risk does not monotonically increase as the merging vehicle speed increases. The merging vehicle's rear-end crash risk is also affected by the vehicle type. There is a biggest increment of rear-end crash risk if the merging lead vehicle belongs to a heavy vehicle. Although the reduced remaining distance to work zone could urge the merging vehicle to complete a merging maneuver quickly, it might lead to an increased rear-end crash risk. Interestingly, it is found that the rear-end crash risk could be generally increased over the elapsed time after the merging maneuver being triggered.  相似文献
10.
The severity of traffic-related injuries has been studied by many researchers in recent decades. However, previous research has seldom accounted for the effects of curbed outside shoulders on traffic-related injury severity. This study applies the zero-inflated ordered probit (ZIOP) model to evaluate the influences of curbed outside shoulders, speed limit change, as well as other traditional factors on the injury severity of single-vehicle crashes. Crash data from 2003 to 2007 in the Illinois Highway Safety Database were employed in this study.  相似文献
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