SRM模型在玛纳斯河流域春季洪水预警中的应用研究

在玛纳斯河流域应用SRM模型进行日径流量的预报,进一步完成对该流域春季融雪性洪水的监测和预警,为防洪、抗旱、提高水资源利用提供技术支撑。引入中国气象局T213数值产品来进行流域分带温度和降水的预报,为融雪径流预报开辟了新的数据方法。通过利用自主开发的融雪径流模拟预报软件1.0版对玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站2004年春季融雪期进行径流量预报,从SRM模型的两个精度评价指标看来,预报结果比较满意。
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基于遥感与地埋信息系统的额敏河流域积雪变化分析

2005年3月新疆北部部分地区发生融雪洪水灾害,给当地人民的生活和国民生产都带来了严重的影响。分析积雪的分布及其变化可为防洪抗灾提供决策依据,同时精确的流域积雪制图和雪盖消融曲线可为融雪径流的模拟提供参数。本文介绍了MODIS数据积雪监测的方法及流域雪盖的分带提取,利用MODIS影像,结合地理信息系统技术分析了额敏河流域3月4日—3月12日每天、每个海拔高度带的积雪变化情况,并利用逐步回归法对积雪变化与气象因子作了回归分析,结果表明400~900m海拔高度带积雪变化与气温降水相关性很好,相关系数R=0.9。     

融雪径流模拟中的卫星周期性雪盖制图研究

为了更好的利用水资源,就要求能对融雪径流做出实时预报。为此目的,一个确定性的融雪径流预报模型(SRM)己于1985年融雪季节成功地应用于Alpine流域(3272km~2,71—3314m)日常的融雪径流模拟预报。     

卫星雪盖监测与玛纳斯河融雪径流模拟

根据国家“九五”重点科技攻关项目“冰雪水资源和出山口径流量变化及趋势预测研究”专题(96-912-01-02)的部分研究内容,运用改进后的融雪径流模型(SRM),通过天山雪盖的卫星遥感监测和流域模型参数的研究,实现了对玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站春季逐日流量的数值模拟,结果表明,模拟的确定系数可达0.89,模拟积差为5.1,满足应用精度,可进一步推广应用。     

积雪遥感

遥感方法可以对区域以至全球尺度的雪盖进行有效监测,根据在光谱的光学波段和微波的各种参数可以描述积雪的反射及发射特性。可见及近红外卫星影像可用以制作积雪面积范围图,这些资料对于气候研究和业务融雪径流预报是很有价值的。航天微波辐射仪资料研究表明:用这种资料可进行积雪面积范围和水当量制图,且具有探测融雪的全天候能力。被动式微波传感器的主要缺点就是空间分辨率较差,这可以用主动式传感器来弥补。合成孔径雷达可以探测湿雪且空间分辨率高。在未来十年中,将发射许多微波传感器,挖掘这一潜力尚需要更艰苦的研究。     

陆地卫星遥感信息在区域地下水资源量计算中的应用

利用陆地卫星遥感信息对地下水资源量计算问题作了两方面的研究。首先，以辽宁省朝阳市为例，研究了在常规资料比较齐全的地区运用遥感技术结合常规方法计算区域地下水资源量的系统方法(简称RSNM概念性研究模型)。其次，以西藏年楚河流域为例，探讨了常规资料短缺地区运用遥感方法估算区域地下水资源量的可能性及其系统研究方法(简称DRSNM概念性研究模型)。RSNM模型和DRSNM模型可推广应用于其它地区的地下水定量研究。     

风云三号积雪覆盖产品评估

由于积雪在地球气候系统和水文循环中调节能量和水交换的特定作用,准确地估计积雪分布和制作高质量的积雪产品对短期气候预测以及水文管理至关重要。中国气象局国家卫星气象中心从2009年开始生成风云三号卫星积雪覆盖率(MULSS多仪器融合数据)产品,为了检验产品算法和为积雪产品在气候研究中的应用提供客观依据,有必要对积雪产品的精度进行评估。以MODIS MOD10C1(MYD10C1)全球日积雪覆盖数据集为参考,基于总精度、Heidke技巧评分等5项检验指标,主要对2010~2014年的风云三号积雪产品进行评估,并进一步分析不同时间尺度积雪覆盖率精度的偏差分布。总体而言,风云三号的卫星积雪产品都与MODIS产品保持了较好的时空一致性。如在积雪季节,风云MULSS积雪产品与MODIS产品的空间分布和时间演变相对统一;但是,可能受到云检测的处理的差异的影响,在融雪期二者的有无雪一致性略有下降。此外,两个产品的积雪覆盖率偏差有明显的年际、季节和月变化,从2012年开始,风云三号MULSS积雪产品相对MODIS的偏差由在中国北部偏高转变为在全国范围内的偏低,从积雪期到融雪期,偏差明显减小。从月的时间尺度来说,东北及新疆北部地区都是积雪变化的敏感区域,青藏高原地区受到地形影响,积雪常年保持,偏差稳定。     

基于机载LiDAR的高寒山区遥感高程数据精度评估

遥感高程数据是获取缺资料地区DEM（Digital elevation models）数据的重要手段。然而,由于高寒山区实地高程测量稀少,难以对多源遥感DEM数据进行统一验证。ICESat-2等新的遥感高程数据在高寒山区也缺乏相应的精度评估。针对此问题,以青藏高原东北缘的冰沟流域作为研究区,采用机载航空遥感获取的大范围LiDAR（Light Detection And Ranging）DEM数据对新产品ICESat-2 ATL06（Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2, Land Ice Height）、ALOS DEM（12.5 m分辨率）以及新版本SRTM V3（SRTM Arc-Second Global 1 V003）、ASTER GDEM V3（ASTER Global DEM）进行验证,并分析地形因子与均方根误差RMSE的关系。研究结果表明：ICESat-2 ATL06数据在高寒山区的RMSE为0.747 m。由于其较高的精度,可用于验证缺资料地区的其他遥感高程数据。其他遥感高程数据的精度都相对较低,ALOS 12.5 m数据的RMSE为5.284 m;ASTER GDEM V3版本的RMSE为9.903 m。实验所采用的4种遥感高程数据与机载LiDAR DEM均具有较高的相关性,相关系数在0.998与1.000之间。实验还揭示了坡度是影响遥感DEM精度的主要因素。除ICESat-2 ATL06外,其他高程数据的RMSE均随坡度的增大先减小再增大,且都存在一个最佳坡度值。鉴于地形复杂多样的冰沟流域具有青藏高原高寒山区的典型特征,多源遥感DEM数据在该区域的验证结论具有较好的代表性,可为相似地区DEM数据的使用和评估提供重要的知识补充。     

积雪遥感动态研究的现状及展望

简要讨论了积雪遥感研究的现状,主要包括常用传感器的物理参数及其可行性和局限性,云和雪的区分技术,雪盖面积和积雪深度的提取,雪水当量换算以及积雪遥感在融雪径流模拟、雪灾监测与评价、积雪对气候变化的影响研究等方面的应用。并对积雪遥感研究的发展趋势做了简要的分析与展望。     

高亚洲地区无云积雪遥感二值产品对比和精度验证分析

以青藏高原为核心的高亚洲地区是我国重要的积雪分布区域,也是气候变化的敏感区域。高精度的积雪遥感监测产品可更好地理解区域水和能量循环过程,提升气候、环境分析和水资源应用潜力,然而由于高亚洲地区地形复杂,高原局部气候变化快,当前所发布的积雪产品的算法各有所长,不同产品的精度评价所采用的评估方法、参考数据和精度指标不统一,这为积雪数据产品应用及评价带来挑战。选择目前国内外已经发布的较为典型的IMS、MODIS无云积雪产品等3种数据,开展基于流域的时空交叉对比分析,并采用同一套地面参考数据集及综合性指标,进行了精度验证和比对研究。结果表明:利用不同数量的地面观测数据进行验证时,3种积雪产品表现都较为稳定,总精度都能达到85%以上,IMS和与微波观测相结合的无云(A-MODIS)产品召回率较高,而MODIS积雪产品的准确度较高,权衡参数F值较高;在积雪季初期3种产品积雪覆盖面积和趋势吻合,后期融雪期出现较大差异,IMS与A-MODIS产品相较于MODIS产品有高估现象,认为与云覆盖及微波数据的质量有很大关系,总体来看IMS产品与MODIS积雪产品精度相接近,但MODIS积雪产品数据质量较高。该项研究可为积雪遥感产品在高亚洲地区应用提供客观的分析和评价。     

Assimilation of meteorological and remote sensing data for snowmelt runoff forecasting

A versatile data assimilation scheme for remote sensing snow cover products and meteorological data was developed, aimed at operational use for short-term runoff forecasting. Spatial and temporal homogenisation of the various input data sets is carried out, including meteorological point measurements from stations, numerical weather predictions, and snow maps from satellites. The meteorological data are downscaled to match the scale of the snow products, derived from optical satellite images of MODIS and from radar images of Envisat ASAR. Snow maps from SAR and optical imagery reveal systematic differences which need to be compensated for use in snowmelt models. We applied a semi-distributed model to demonstrate the use of satellite snow cover data for short-term runoff forecasting. During the snowmelt periods 2005 and 2006 daily runoff forecasts were made for the drainage basin Ötztal (Austrian Alps) for time lags up to 6 days. Because satellite images were obtained intermittently, prognostic equations were applied to predict the daily snow cover extent for model update. Runoff forecasting uncertainty is estimated by using not only deterministic meteorological predictions as input, but also 51 ensemble predictions of the EPS system of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast. This is particularly important for water management tasks, because meteorological forecasts are the main error source for runoff prediction, as confirmed by simulation studies with modified input data from the various sources. Evaluation of the runoff forecasts reveals good agreement with the measurements, confirming the usefulness of the selected data processing and assimilation scheme for operational use.     

Using MODIS snow cover maps in modeling snowmelt runoff process in the eastern part of Turkey

Water perhaps is the most valuable natural asset in the Middle East as it was a historical key for settlement and survival in Mesopotamia, “the land between two rivers”. At present, the Euphrates and Tigris are the two largest trans-boundary rivers in Western Asia where Turkey, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are the riparian countries. The Euphrates and Tigris basins are largely fed from snow precipitation whereby nearly two-thirds occur in winter and may remain in the form of snow for half of the year. The concentration of discharge mainly from snowmelt during spring and early summer months causes not only extensive flooding, inundating large areas, but also the loss of much needed water required for irrigation and power generation purposes during the summer season. Accordingly, modeling of snow-covered area in the mountainous regions of Eastern Turkey, as being one of the major headwaters of Euphrates-Tigris basin, has significant importance in order to forecast snowmelt discharge especially for energy production, flood control, irrigation and reservoir operation optimization.A pilot basin, located on the upper Euphrates River, is selected where five automated meteorological and snow stations are installed for real time operations. The daily snow cover maps obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS at 500 m resolution are compared with ground information for the winter of 2002-2003 both during accumulation and ablation and at accumulation stage for the winter of 2003-2004. The snow presence on the ground is determined from the snow courses performed. Such measurements were made at 19 points in and around the upper Euphrates River in Turkey and at 20 points in the upper portion of the pilot basin for the winters of 2002-2003 and 2003-2004, respectively. Comparison of MODIS snow maps with in situ measurements over the snow season show good agreement with overall accuracies ranging between 62% and 82% considering the shift in the days of comparison. The main reasons to have disagreement between MODIS and in situ data are the high cloud cover frequency in the area and the current version of the MODIS cloud-mask that appears to frequently map edges of snow-covered areas and land surfaces. The effect of elevation and land cover types on validation of MODIS snow cover maps is also analyzed. In order to minimize the cloud cover and maximize the snow cover, MODIS-8 daily snow cover products are used in deriving the snow depletion curve, which is one of the input parameters of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). The initial results of modeling process show that MODIS snow-covered area product can be used for simulation and also for forecasting of snowmelt runoff in basins of Turkey.     

Accuracy assessment of MODIS,NOAA and IRS data in snow cover mapping under Himalayan conditions

Snow cover information is an essential parameter for a wide variety of scientific studies and management applications, especially in snowmelt runoff modelling. Until now NOAA and IRS data were widely and effectively used for snow‐covered area (SCA) estimation in several Himalayan basins. The suit of snow cover products produced from MODIS data had not previously been used in SCA estimation and snowmelt runoff modelling in any Himalayan basin. The present study was conducted with the aim of assessing the accuracy of MODIS, NOAA and IRS data in snow cover mapping under Himalayan conditions. The total SCA was estimated using these three datasets for 15 dates spread over 4 years. The results were compared with ground‐based estimation of snow cover. A good agreement was observed between satellite‐based estimation and ground‐based estimation. The influence of aspect in SCA estimation was analysed for the three satellite datasets and it was observed that MODIS produced better results. Snow mapping accuracy with respect to elevation was tested and it was observed that at higher elevation MODIS sensed more snow and proved better at mapping snow under mountain shadow conditions. At lower elevation, IRS proved better in mapping patchy snow cover due to higher spatial resolution. The temporal resolution of MODIS and NOAA data is better than IRS data, which means that the chances of getting cloud‐free scenes is higher. In addition, MODIS has an automated snow‐mapping algorithm, which reduces the time and errors incorporated during processing satellite data manually. Considering all these factors, it was concluded that MODIS data could be effectively used for SCA estimation under Himalayan conditions, which is a vital parameter for snowmelt runoff estimation.     

Snowmelt runoff modelling in a Himalayan basin with the aid of satellite data

The Himalayan basins have runoff contributions from rainfall as well as from snow and ice. In the present study a snowmelt runoff model (SRM) was applied to estimate the streamflow for Satluj basin located in the western Himalayan region. This model uses the direct input of remotely sensed snow-cover area (SCA) data for calibration and simulation. The SCA in the basin was determined using remote sensing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra-Aqua satellite. In addition, daily precipitation and temperature data, as well as a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model (SRTM-DEM), were used to prepare the area elevation curves. The model was calibrated using the dataset for a period of 3 years (1996–1997, 1997–1998 and 1998–1999) and model parameters for streamflow routing were optimized. Using the optimized parameters, streamflow simulations were made for four years of data (i.e. 2000–2003 and 2004–2005). The accuracy of the streamflow verification was determined using different criteria such as shape of the outflow hydrograph, efficiency and difference in volume. The seasonal temperature lapse rates (TLRs) estimated from land surface temperature (LST) maps were used in the model and considerable improvement in simulation was observed. It was found that the overall efficiency increased when using varying TLRs.     

Evaluation of MODIS Snow Products in Southwestern Xinjiang Using the Google Earth Engine

Google Earth Engine(GEE) is a cloud\|based geospatial processing platform that can analyze geospatial data to achieve parallel processing of massive remote sensing data on a global scale,providing support for remote sensing big data and large\|area research.MODIS snow cover mapping is a global snow cover product established using MODIS data and has been widely used in regional and global climate and environmental monitoring.In the GEE,millions of remote sensing images are stored,including MODIS daily snow products MOD10A1 V5 data and Landsat data.Taking the three research areas in southwestern Xinjiang as examples,the Landsat stored by the GEE were selected,and the NDSI was used to extract the snow cover as the true value of the land cover to evaluate the MOD10A1 accuracy.The results show that the average overall accuracy of MOD10A1 in the snow cover season in southwestern Xinjiang during the period from 2000 to 2016 is 82%,the average misjudgment rate is 2.9%,and the average missed rate is 58.8%.The overall accuracy of MOD10A1 can reach 98% under the clear sky conditions.The accuracy of MOD10A1 is effected by the terrain conditions and cloud cover in different regions.Therefore,the GEE can quickly and effectively filter high quality cloudless Landsat images,and evaluate the accuracy of the MOD10A1 in the snow area around the global regions,displaying intuitively the misjudgment and missed areas in the form of online maps.Meanwhile,GEE provides the Landsat simple cloud score function to calculate the regional cloud cover,which makes the influence of cloud cover on the MOD10A1 accuracy assessment more regionally representative.     

基于克里金空间插值的MODIS积雪覆盖率产品去云方法

由于云与积雪在可见光和远红外波段都具有相似的光谱特征,使得光学遥感监测积雪受到天气的严重干扰,如何消除亚像元尺度上MODIS积雪覆盖率(Snow Cover Fraction,SCF)产品中云的干扰成为了一个亟待解决的难题。通过分析亚像元尺度上SCF分布的空间变异性,提出了一种基于克里金空间插值的MODIS SCF产品去云方法,分别利用普通克里金(Ordinary Kriging,OK)和以海拔为协变量的普通协克里金(Ordinary Co\|Kriging,OCK)进行去云实验。11个不同日期的实验结果表明:OK和OCK方法在MODIS SCF产品去云中均能达到较高的精度,特别是在云覆盖率低于20%的情况下,此时OCK的精度要好于OK;而当云覆盖率大于20%时,OK的精度略高于OCK,但两者的精度都明显低于云覆盖率低于20%的情况,而且平滑效应都比较明显。     

2000~2010年吉林省积雪时空变化特征及其与气候的关系

利用Terra卫星提供的2000年10月1日到2010年4月30日每日雪覆盖产品MOD10A1,提取研究区积雪覆盖指数SCI、积雪日数SCD、积雪初日SCOD及积雪终日SCMD遥感信息,结合同期吉林省界内23个地面气象观测站的同期气温和降水资料,分析该区积雪的变化特征与气温和降水的关系。结果表明:① 吉林省大部分地区积雪日数为30~90 d,东部山区积雪持续时间长、积雪初日日期早以及积雪终日日期晚,中西部地区变化情况相反;② 积雪覆盖指数SCI呈波浪式变化,与积雪季气温呈负相关;③ 积雪日数与气温呈反相关、与降水量呈正相关,与积雪季气温、夏季降水量的相关系数分别为-0.7407、0.6875;积雪初日情况相反,与积雪季气温、夏季平均气温为0.743、0.5479;积雪终日与气温呈反相关、与降水量呈正相关,与积雪季气温、夏季降水量为-0.5214、0.4647。积雪指数均对气温的变化更敏感,气温升高导致积雪初日推迟、积雪终日提前,从而使积雪日数减小;积雪季降水量的增加有利于积雪日数增大,而积雪终日的推迟有利于夏季降水量的增加。     

基于AMSR-E的全球陆表被动微波发射率数据集

地表微波发射率表征了地物向外发射微波辐射的能力,星载被动微波发射率估算可在宏观、大尺度上对陆表微波辐射进行整体表达,是被动微波地表参数定量反演中重要基础数据,也是在大尺度上获取陆表微波辐射特征的一种途径。本数据集利用搭载在Aqua卫星上的高级微波扫描辐射计(AMSR-E)和中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)的同步观测特点,采用MODIS的地表温度和大气水汽产品数据作为输入,基于考虑大气影响的发射率估算模型,生产了全球晴空条件下AMSR-E传感器运行期间(2002年6月~2011年10月)的陆表多通道双极化微波瞬时发射率。通过产品低频无线电信号影响、数据间比对、分布统计、不同地表覆盖条件的发射率特征、频率依赖和相关性研究等开展验证性分析,结果表明:瞬时发射率的动态大、细节表达丰富,月内日变化标准差在0.02以内,其时空变化、频率依赖和相关性等符合微波理论分析和自然物理过程理解。此套数据集还包括AMSR-E全生命周期的全球陆表逐日、侯、旬、半月及月产品,可用于开展星载被动微波遥感模拟、陆面模型以及陆表温度、积雪、大气降水/水汽/可降水量等反演研究。