液化石油气罐区的危险性定量模拟评价技术及其事故预防

分析了液化石油气罐区的主要危险性及其特点 ,针对主要危险事故类型 :蒸气云爆炸 (UVCE)、沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸 (BLEVE)和池火灾 (PoolFire) ,利用灾害定量评价技术和数学模型对其危险性进行了定量模拟评价 ,确定了其火灾、爆炸事故的严重度、伤害范围等 ;并提出了相应的事故预防技术措施。     

基于等价气云爆炸风险评估的气体防护区域定量划分

目前对危险气体泄漏防护区域的划分方法主要为定性方法,难以对具体场景定量表征,进而无法用于风险防控系统的设计规划。本文在等价气云理论的基础上,基于爆炸事故后果风险评估,提出一种定量划分气体防护区域的方法。综合考虑气体泄漏概率、风速风向联合分布概率等现场特征要素,运用高斯扩散模型,得到气体泄漏扩散的等价气云体积以及气体泄漏扩散风险集合,并进行泄漏场景筛选。针对扩散风险较大的场景进行点火概率分析,利用多能法计算气云爆炸影响范围,对气云爆炸事故进行风险评估得到爆炸事故后果风险集合。在ALARP标准与火气系统探测器场景覆盖率的指导下,依据不同装置区域的风险值确定气体防护区域等级定量划分标准。通过某LNG接收站案例分析,可定量得到不同装置的防护区域等级,实现针对具体泄漏场景的气体防护区域等级定量划分。数值计算表明,气体防护区域定量划分可为火气系统探测器布设提供理论支持。     

液化石油气储罐的危险性定量模拟及事故预防

分析了液化石油气储罐的主要危险性及其特点,针对主要危险事故类型:蒸气云爆炸(U-VCE),利用灾害定量评价技术和数学模型对其危险性进行了定量模拟评价,确定了其火灾、爆炸事故的严重度、伤害范围等;并提出了相应的事故预防技术措施。     

LNG储罐蒸气云爆炸后果分析

采用蒸气云爆炸定量评价模型对广州某燃气公司液化天然气LNG储罐发生泄漏导致LNG蒸气云爆炸事故后果进行了分析评价,评价得出:LNG储罐全部泄漏,发生蒸气云爆炸事故,约102.4 m为半径的范围内,会造成人员伤亡(死亡、重伤、轻伤)和财产损失,为企业制定应急救援预案提供参考。     

基于ARAMIS体系的爆炸风险评价法及其应用

根据ARAMIS体系,提出针对爆炸事故的定量风险评估方法。采用蝴蝶结分析法(bow-tie法)定性分析事故原因及计算爆炸事故发生的概率,基于TNO多能法计算远场爆炸超压,计算超压严重度和装置脆弱度,确定爆炸风险值并绘制爆炸风险图。对某液化天然气罐区进行了实例计算,结果表明:基于ARAMIS体系的爆炸风险评估法的评价结果是合理的,且具有较好的应用前景。     

基于PHAST软件的异丙醇储罐泄漏模拟

以某企业异丙醇储罐为例,运用挪威船级社(DNV)PHAST风险评估软件对异丙醇储罐泄漏后的火灾、蒸汽云爆炸后果进行定量风险评估,模拟事故后果和风险,并提出安全对策措施。     

液化石油气罐区火灾爆炸分析与评价

液化石油气泄漏遇到火源而爆炸,是球罐火灾爆炸的主要原因,运用蒸气云爆炸、沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸2种事故伤害模型,定量计算安庆分公司储运部十四罐区液化石油气球罐发生重大火灾爆炸事故的严重后果.结合十四罐区现状,阐明在设备、工艺、安全方面应采取的防范措施.     

某化工企业乙烯储罐爆炸后果的两种模型预测

以某化工企业为例,分别采用蒸气云爆炸（VCE）模型和沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸（BLEVE）模型进行分析,预测不同情况下乙烯储罐爆炸产生后果的严重程度,根据最大危险原则,按照乙烯扩展蒸气爆炸考虑相关事故后果。由于乙烯爆炸后果十分严重,应采取相应措施降低事故发生率,以达到降低企业风险的目的。     

液化石油气储罐事故模拟评价及应用

对液化石油气危险特性、储存特点、储罐的失效形式、事故类型及对以往LPG事故的归类分析,综合分析各类事故模型优缺点,采用适当的数学模型对液化石油气储罐事故进行模拟,评价事故后果严重度。以某LPG项目为应用实例,对丙烷储罐蒸气云爆炸进行事故后果模拟评价,确定储罐发生蒸气云爆炸事故后果严重度,为制定防范措施、事故应急措施提供技术支持。     

某涉氨制冷企业液氨储罐泄漏事故的后果分析

以某涉氨制冷企业液氨储罐为例,选用蒸气云爆炸、沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸和中毒模型对液氨储罐泄漏事故进行后果分析,定量地得出各类伤害半径,为企业制定应急救援预案和政府进行安全监管提供科学依据。     

Safety distance analysis of dimethylether filling stations using a modified individual risk assessment method

The physical properties of dimethylether (DME) are similar to conventional fuels such as LPG and diesel, so DME has been recently considered one of the most promising candidates for a substitute for them. Equipment failures in gas stations lead to accidents that pose significant threats to people and property. Therefore, prior to commercialization, safety standards for DME need to be developed based on risk analysis. In this study, we focused on safety distance in DME filling stations. A hypothetical DME filling station was modeled based on a DME-LPG mixed filling station designed by KOGAS, and safety distances were suggested from a semi-quantitative risk estimation approach using individual risk calculations. Modified individual risk calculations were performed with consequence analysis and failure mode under varying accident scenarios. Compared with existing individual risk analysis, the modified-individual risk approach is supplemented with a weighting factor to graduate each accident scenario by historical analysis. Subsequently, the outcome shows the individual risk that suggests a safety distance. To compare with conventional fuel, we also performed a comparative study on the filling station fuels LPG and DME. According to the quantitative risk estimation results, we propose a separation distance based on accident scenarios for each facility. In conclusion, safe distances for DME facilities are lower than those that dispense LPG. Therefore, a DME filling unit can be placed at conventional gas stations without increasing the safety distance. The results will also be useful in determining the standard for safety management of renewable and sustainable energy.     

LPG储罐爆炸事故评价及安全管理研究进展

LPG储罐的爆炸事故时有发生,一旦出现爆炸事故,将导致大量的人员伤亡和经济损失,因此,有必要对其事故原因进行分析,并且提出有效的应对措施。首先,讨论了LPG典型事故,并且对事故类型及事故后果进行了分析;其次,研究了LPG储罐爆炸评价方法;最后,讨论了LPG储罐安全防护措施研究进展。     

液化石油气罐区火灾危险性定量评价

分析了液化石油气的危险特性及其火灾主要特点，分别运用火球热辐射和池火焰热辐射伤害数学模型，结合热辐射破坏准则，对液化石油气罐区火灾危险性进行了定量评价，确定了液化气罐区火灾的严重度、伤害范围等；并结合事故案例对该评价方法进行了阐述，其计算结果与该工厂火灾事故调查资料吻合较好。     

模拟液化烃储罐火灾爆炸事故的定量分析研究

模拟液化烃储罐发生火灾爆炸事故,采用TNT当量法和热辐射通量法分别对满罐液化烃造成的蒸气云爆炸冲击波伤害区域和热辐射伤害区域进行了定量计算;并在此基础上,进一步着重分析了不同充装系数下对其结果的影响。     

Optimal layout of additional facilities for minimization of domino effects based on worst-case scenarios

Accidents involving domino effects are more serious than other type of accidents. Although there have been studies on such accidents, it is still difficult to examine the actual factors and causes since the domino effect is influenced nonlinearly by factors involving flame, overpressure, and flying objects. We considered the case of adding new facilities to an existing system in a given site. The layout of new facilities suggests positions that minimize the domino effects, based on nonlinear optimization taking domino factors into account. We quantitatively calculated the domino risk of each facility through the concept of combined domino factors (flame, overpressure, and missile). Also, we identified variations of domino damage extent of the target system through comparison of the impacts of domino effect when additional facilities were installed. Simulated annealing was adopted for searching optimal positions. As a case study, we applied the proposed method to the case of adding DME storage tanks in the existing LPG charging facilities. The presented framework of the quantitative assessment of domino risk and safety standard for the layout of additional facilities would be useful for proper layout design for improved accident prevention.     

Risk analysis using automatically synthesized robust accident scenarios and consequence assessment for chemical processes: Process partition and consequence analysis approach

Consequence analysis and risk assessment are very important in chemical process industries because of the potential risk of hazardous materials. In this paper, we introduce a new system for consequence analysis and risk management (CARM) and propose a new strategy for producing robust accident scenarios in quantitative risk assessment. The suggested synthesis method analyzes process elements and selects and generates robust accident scenarios that simulate the most possible worst-case accident that should be foremost considered. The scenario-reasoning scheme consists of three types of knowledge base (equipment property, material property, and process unit knowledge) and four reasoning algorithms (macro decomposition, equipment screening, equipment behavior analysis, and accident scenarios reasoning). The synthesized result of the analysis enhances the reliability of the generated accident scenario and prevents the risks from being overestimated. The obtained result, as easily confirmed by using CARM, should be more helpful in proper process design and emergency planning.     

Study on risk assessment of chemical process based on an advanced layers of protection analysis method

This paper focuses on an advanced layers of protection analysis (LOPA) method to assess the risk of a chemical process. Based on the chemical accident statistics between 2001 and 2014 in China, an acceptable risk function was built for chemical processes to confirm the acceptable risk value for an accident scenario. The assessment index for an emergency system was developed to assess the protective function of emergency protection based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the probability of failure on demand (PFD) of emergency protection was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive assessment method and fuzzy set theory. The proposed method was applied to a methanol distillation installation. The result showed that the protections, including emergency protection, were sufficient because the probability of mitigation protection (1×10^?8) was less than the acceptable risk value (3.04×10^?7). The advanced LOPA method was proven to be able to improve the integrity and accuracy of traditional LOPA.     

基于风险熵和复杂网络的深水钻井井喷事故风险演化评估

针对深水钻井作业安全问题,基于风险熵和复杂网络理论,在考虑风险不确定性的基础上,提出深水钻井井喷事故风险演化量化评估方法。依据深水钻井流程,构建井喷事故场景复杂网络演化模型,判断节点聚类性;针对风险传递的随机性与模糊性,引入风险熵表征两类不确定性;给出风险传递路径最大可能性的表达式,并转化为线性规划问题,通过Dijkstra算法得出事故最短路径。结果表明：深水井喷事故复杂网络的聚类系数为0.132,节点聚集程度较低而演化性较强,具有小世界网络特征;以自然因素类的钻遇浅层气作为初始事件的风险传递路径对井喷事故的影响最大,但所有初始事件的风险经少数几步传递即可导致井喷事故的发生,验证该方法在复杂过程系统定量风险评估方面的可行性。     

基于环境风险评价的页岩气水务管理框架及其模块分析

随着全球页岩气勘探开发的快速推进,页岩气开发的诸多环境问题也逐渐凸显,缺乏相应的环境评价和管理方法,尤其是在水务管理方面。提出了基于环境风险评价的页岩气水务管理框架;从钻井、水力压裂、采出水处理等3个阶段系统阐述和分析了页岩气水务管理中存在的风险源项,包括其污染通道和种类;结合环境风险评价方法的优缺点评估和应用前景,推荐采用故障树/事故树分析、概率风险评价法以及基于概率理论统计和模糊集的综合法进行页岩气水务管理风险评价。