基于农户调查的农村居民点整理意愿及影响因素分析

农村居民点整理是促进节约集约用地的重要举措。以抽样调查获取的424份调查问卷为基础,构建了包括农户个人特征、家庭经济状况、家庭住房状况、其它因素在内的Logistic模型,分析了农户居民点整理意愿及影响因素。研究显示:(1)研究区域农村居民点整理意愿不强烈,仅41.5%的农户愿意居民点整理,其主要原因是担心生活成本增加、失去生活保障以及恋土情结等;(2)农户住房套数、与邻居血缘关系、家庭承包经营耕地面积、家庭收入、农户职业类型等都是影响农村居民点整理意愿的主要因素,其中家庭住房套数越多、收入越高、与邻居血缘关系越远的农户整理意愿越强烈,而年龄越大、家庭人口越多、以农业为主的农户则越不愿意整理搬迁;(3)为有效推进居民点整理工作,应切实从农民利益角度出发,努力提高拆迁补偿标准,建立健全社会保障机制,同时加大农村土地制度改革探索。     

基于农户调查的农村居民点整理意愿及影响因素分析

农村居民点整理是促进节约集约用地的重要举措。以抽样调查获取的424份调查问卷为基础,构建了包括农户个人特征、家庭经济状况、家庭住房状况、其它因素在内的Logistic模型,分析了农户居民点整理意愿及影响因素。研究显示：(1)研究区域农村居民点整理意愿不强烈,仅41.5%的农户愿意居民点整理,其主要原因是担心生活成本增加、失去生活保障以及恋土情结等;(2)农户住房套数、与邻居血缘关系、家庭承包经营耕地面积、家庭收入、农户职业类型等都是影响农村居民点整理意愿的主要因素,其中家庭住房套数越多、收入越高、与邻居血缘关系越远的农户整理意愿越强烈,而年龄越大、家庭人口越多、以农业为主的农户则越不愿意整理搬迁;(3)为有效推进居民点整理工作,应切实从农民利益角度出发,努力提高拆迁补偿标准,建立健全社会保障机制,同时加大农村土地制度改革探索     

农村女性迁居城镇意愿状态的实证分析——以鄂州、黄石、仙桃三地为例

基于鄂州、黄石、仙桃三地年龄在18岁至45岁之间女性的4 318份实地调查问卷,建立二元Logistic模型,分析三地农村女性迁居城镇意愿状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明:52%的农村女性愿意迁居到城镇,而34.2%的农村女性不愿意迁居到城镇。受教育程度程度越高、年龄越小、未婚、非农收入较高的农村女性更倾向于迁居城市。同时,女性居住地所在区域作为环境外围因素对迁居选择也有重要影响。离大、中城市越近,城市文明影响越深的区域,农村女性迁居城镇意愿越强。值得注意的是,居住在农村集镇的女性,具有较高的迁居愿意,高于居住在县城或纯乡村区域的女性。在现阶段,户籍因素、是否有外出务工经历对女性的迁居意愿的影响不显著。女性迁居城镇意愿是农民工家庭彻底融入城市的关键因素。因此,建议大力提高农村女性受教育水平,加强农村女性的教育培训。同时,在公共政策制定和实施中,需增加农村女性平等竞争机会。     

人居环境质量对乡村发展的影响——基于江苏省村庄抽样调查截面数据的分析

农村人居环境整治是实施乡村振兴战略的重点内容,探讨人居环境质量对乡村发展的影响具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文从理论层面解析了人居环境质量影响乡村发展的机理,并基于江苏省村庄抽样调查截面数据构建了多元回归模型和结构方程模型(Structural Equation Model,SEM),就人居环境质量对乡村发展的影响及机理进行了定量分析。研究结果:①回归分析表明,人居环境质量对乡村发展的促进作用明显。②SEM建模分析发现,农村人居硬环境和软环境各构成要素对乡村发展的影响存在差异。硬环境方面,基础设施条件直接促进乡村发展,其路径系数为0.40,环境卫生状况、农户居住情况与基础设施条件之间呈现较强的相互促进作用,其路径系数分别为0.68(环境卫生状况?基础设施条件)、0.65(农户居住情况?基础设施条件)和0.54(环境卫生状况?农户居住情况);软环境方面,乡村文化活动直接促进乡村发展,其路径系数为0.16;硬环境方面的环境卫生状况、基础设施条件与软环境方面的乡村文化活动也具有一定的相互促进作用,其路径系数分别为0.15(环境卫生状况?乡村文体活动)和0.31(基础设施条件?乡村文体活动)。研究认为,农村人居环境整治有助于乡村空间重构、组织重建、产业重塑,有效推动乡村形态、结构和功能转变。为更好地促进乡村发展转型与振兴,农村人居环境整治应当"软硬兼施",以完善基础设施和丰富文体活动为重点,并同步推进环境卫生治理和居住条件改善。     

三峡库区典型生态屏障区农户向外转移意愿及影响因素分析

向区外转移一定数量的过载人口是三峡生态屏障区土地生态功能建设的前提。基于农户访谈与问卷调查，对三峡库区典型生态屏障区内的涪陵、奉节、秭归、夷陵4区县的农户转移意愿进行了抽样调查，并采用Logistic回归模型对影响农户转移意愿的因素进行了分析。结果显示：613%的被调查户愿意转移，影响农户转移意愿的主要因素为户主文化水平、家庭非农收入比重、人均耕地面积、村社距集镇距离和村社环境，户主的文化水平越高、家庭非农收入比重越大、人均耕地面积越多，所处村社距集镇的距离越远、环境越差，则农户向外转移的意愿就越强烈。另外，地区因素对农户的转移意愿也存在一定影响，4个样本区县中农户转移意愿强度从大到小依次排列为秭归、涪陵、夷陵和奉节，其愿意转移的发生比率（Odds Ratio）为5047∶1637∶1166∶1。为了激励屏障区农户实行自愿转移，促进三峡后续工作规划的顺利实施，建议政府根据影响因素分析结果选择目标转移人群，并制定完善的人口转移政策以加强农户对转移后的经济收入、生产生活环境改善的预期，从而增强转移意愿     

农村居民点整理适宜性评价及其分区管制

农村居民点整理适宜性评价是农村居民点整理方案制定及分区调控的基础。本研究以扬州市区106个行政村为对象,开展农村居民点整理的农户意愿调查,从整理政策、人际交往、生活习惯、经济压力等方面评价农户意愿大小,结合经济、社会及区位等因素构建农村居民点整理的适宜性评价指标体系,根据适宜性大小划定农村居民点整理适宜性分区,并制定分区管制措施。研究发现:农户整理意愿区域差异明显,研究区域北部和东部由于经济发展速度较快,且农村居民点整理政策设计较为完善,如槐泗镇凤来村的农户意愿分值高达36.5,而南部、西部的整理意愿相对较低,如瓜州镇鞠庄村的农户意愿分值仅25.9。研究表明:1将农户意愿引入农村居民点整理适宜性评价中,不仅考虑到社会、经济等宏观因素,而且综合了微观农户意愿,评价方法更为科学。2可拓展空间衡量居民点整理潜力,农户意愿和人口经济状况是影响整理适宜性的关键因素,而较好的基础设施状况将降低居民点整理的适宜性等级。3应考虑土地利用、社会经济、农户意愿等分区特征,从整理模式、中心村建设和土地利用策略等方面构建差别化的分区管制政策。优先整理区可采取一次性搬迁策略,将零星村庄整体迁并至中心城区、镇区或中心村;重点整理区应以迁村并点及闲置居民点复垦为主;适度整理区应走"滚动式"农村居民点整治之路;优化调整区应逐渐将靠近城区和镇区的居民点纳入城镇管理体系,加速其城镇化进程。本研究将为农村居民点整理重点区域选择和区域差别化的管制政策制定提供参考。     

区域分异视角下乡村企业入城意愿分析——基于浙、豫、川三省193家企业的实证研究

乡村企业入城是实现我国城镇化发展的基本路径。利用浙江、河南、四川三省193家乡村企业的实地调查数据,运用多元有序Logistic回归模型进行相关验证,实证分析我国东中西部三个省份的乡村企业入城意愿及其影响因素。通过对调研数据的描述统计发现:有58.55%的乡村企业主有入城意愿,仅有21.24%的乡村企业主不愿意或非常不愿意搬迁,集群环境、土地价格、运输成本等是企业愿意搬迁的主要原因,土地价格政策、当地经济发展水平、产品产销信息、集群环境是影响企业搬迁方向的重要因素,当地的土地、税收和融资等政府政策对于企业是否入城产生重要影响。通过多元有序Logistic回归模型估计结果表明:企业总资产、土地价格、运输成本、集群环境、与政府关系对入城意愿有显著负向影响,税收政策有显著正向影响,这些影响因素主要是通过影响企业的显性成本(土地价格、运输成本),以及企业的交易成本、寻租成本等隐性成本(集群环境、与政府关系和税收政策),进而影响企业的迁移意愿,且浙江、河南与四川三地计量结果差异显著。在上述研究的基础上,本文提出相应的政策建议。     

基于Logit模型的非自愿性移民迁徙分析

我国每年由于建设拆迁、水库工程等引发的移民迁徒数量比较大,移民搬迁涉及政治、经济、社会、民族、宗教、文化等诸多方面,是一项复杂的系统工程.为了更好地为中央对三峡库区移民可持续发展规划提供政策建议,笔者在三峡库区内选择有代表性的W县进行实地调研,调查涉及3个镇、19个村、46个组、9061户,在对调查数据进行Logit分析后得到如下结论:在不考虑搬迁补偿金额和帮扶政策等外部选择条件的前提下,如果只考虑移民自身的特征与其拥有的环境资源禀赋数据会发现:农户自身家庭收入、土地面积以及居住环境、居住位置、居住方式等因素会对农户的搬迁意愿产生显著的影响.因此我们建议在库区搬迁规划时在一定条件下应根据农户的实际条件进行有选择性的搬迁,而不是一刀切式的政策,这样可以避免在实施搬迁过程中的造成的社会冲突与矛盾.     

农地流转中的农民意愿和政府角色——以重庆市江北区统筹城乡改革和发展试验区为例

土地流转进行与否和方案的制定首先要考虑的是农户意愿,政府在土地流转中的行为和角色也要建立在农户流转意愿的基础上.了解农户土地流转的意愿,并在此基础上分析政府在土地流转中的作用对于指导土地流转的顺利进行具有十分重要的作用.因此,本研究采取随机抽样和典型调查相结合的方式分析了农户的土地流转意愿及影响因素,并通过对比"双溪农户"和"一般农户"土地流转现状和农民对政府土地流转工作的了解情况,分析了政府在农地流转中的角色问题.结果表明:农民的土地流转意愿十分强烈.外出务工人员比例是农户转出土地的首要直接因素;收入总数和结构与土地流转意愿互为因果关系;农户愿意转出耕地,而不愿意转出园地;受教育水平高的农户愿意转入土地,可能发展为农业经营大户.无论是已经大规模发生土地流转的村庄还是尚未大规模发生流转的村庄,农民对于土地流转的目的、意义以及方式等基本信息都不是很了解.因此,政府在土地流转中要适度引导和监督,不能过度干预农民的意愿和行为.     

退耕还林政策交替期补偿到期农户复耕意愿研究

退耕还林政策交替期是首轮退耕补偿到期、延长期退耕成果巩固以及新一轮退耕规模扩大的关键时期。本文以土地依赖为视角,基于补偿到期农户农林业生计分析,探究土地依赖对农户复耕意愿的影响。利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所课题组2015年11月陕西延安吴起县所收集的农户调查数据,建立内生样本选择三阶段模型,从农林业收入和劳动力投入两方面分析了退耕补偿到期农户的土地依赖程度,及其对农户复耕意愿和计划复耕程度的影响。研究表明,退耕还林政策交替期退耕补偿收入及退耕地上相关收益较少,不足以支持补偿到期农户发展替代生计和保障口粮安全,农户对土地生产的需求会构成其复耕或不愿退耕的重要原因。农户对土地的依赖与退耕还林的可持续性之间并非简单的冲突对立关系,补偿到期农户对土地的收入依赖程度越强,其复耕的可能性越低,计划复耕程度越低,可见,一定程度的土地依赖为其发展多样化生计提供生存基础和粮食安全保障,反而会促使农户巩固退耕还林成果;相反,补偿到期农户对土地生产投入越多的劳动力,其复耕的意愿越强,计划复耕程度越高。因此,保障退耕还林成果的可持续性重点在于提升农户农林生产效率,发展劳动集约型土地生产,优化农村劳动力配置。此外,以农村扶贫与发展为目标的移民搬迁工程在促进新型城镇化的同时,对农户退耕还林行为的可持续性也有重要、积极的影响。退耕还林工程与易地扶贫搬迁工程等农村扶贫与发展项目相结合,更有助于实现贫困山区生态保护与发展的双赢目标。     

Cs in a raised bog in central Sweden

The vertical distribution of ¹³⁷Cs activity in peat soil profiles and ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in plants of various species was studied in samples collected at two sites on a raised bog in central Sweden. One site (open bog) was in an area with no trees and only a few sparsely growing plant species, while the other (low pine) was less than 100 m from the open bog site and had slowly growing Scots pine, a field layer dominated by some ericaceous plants and ground well-covered by plants. The plant samples were collected in 2004–2007 and were compared with samples collected in 1989 from the same open bog and low pine sites. Ground deposition of ¹³⁷Cs in 2005 was similar at both sites, 23?000 Bq m⁻². In the open bog peat profile it seems to be an upward transport of caesium since a clear peak of ¹³⁷Cs activity was found in the uppermost 1–4 cm of Sphagnum layers, whereas at the low pine site ¹³⁷Cs was mainly found in deeper (10–12 cm) layers. The migration rate was 0.57 cm yr⁻¹ at the open bog site and the migration centre of ¹³⁷Cs was at a depth of 10.7, while the rate at the low pine site was 0.78 cm yr⁻¹ and the migration centre was at 14.9 cm. Heather (Calluna vulgaris) was the plant species with the highest ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations at both sites, 43.5 k Bq⁻¹ DM in 1989 decreasing to 20.4 in 2004–2007 on open bog and 22.3 k Bq kg⁻¹ DM in 1989 decreasing to 11.2 k Bq⁻¹ DM by the period 2004–2007 on the low pine site. ¹³⁷Cs transfer factors in plants varied between 0.88 and 1.35 on the open bog and between 0.48 and 0.69 m² kg⁻¹ DM at the low pine site.     

流域土地利用变化的水质响应研究进展

探讨流域土地利用变化的水质响应,有利于从源头上控制水污染。不同学者在多种边界条件下研究了流域土地利用变化的水质响应,发现流域土地利用变化是造成河流水质发生变化的重要原因。根据是否可以将土地利用活动概化为点状,流域土地利用变化的水质响应研究可分为点状土地利用的水质响应和非点状土地利用的水质响应。准确边界土地利用的水质响应一般是研究流域土地利用空间特征和土地利用结构与水质变化的关系。对于用全流域尺度还是用缓冲区的尺度分析土地利用的水质响应更准确仍存在争论。水域边缘几何形状影响了土地利用与水质的关系。     

Formaldehyde in conventional homes in Taiwan

A survey was conducted in the humid environment of Taipei City during April and May of 1991, to investigate the indoor formaldehyde exposure and its health effects on 117 conventional households. The levels of formaldehyde were measured by the pararosaniline method. The details regarding construction, ventilation, combustion of fuel, burning of Chinese incense, and the complaints concerning the respiratory system were obtained by a questionnaire. The results show that the age of the pressed wood used in furniture and indoor decoration, the ventilation rate, the combustion of fuel, and the burning of Chinese incense significantly affect the levels of formaldehyde. The respiratory complaints found in this study were concluded here to be only partially accounted for by exposure to formaldehyde.     

Present status of Rn in groundwater in Extremadura

Radon-222 was measured in groundwater sources of Extremadura (Spain), analyzing 350 samples from private and public springs, wells, and spas by liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and gamma spectrometry. The ²²²Rn activity concentrations ranged from 0.24 to 1168 Bq L⁻¹. The statistical analysis showed a log-normal distribution with a mean of (111 ± 7) Bq L⁻¹ and a median of (36 ± 3) Bq L⁻¹. A hydrogeological study revealed correlations between the activity concentration and the aquifer material's characteristics. A map of ²²²Rn in groundwater was elaborated and compared with the natural gamma radiation map for this region. About 35% of the samples showed ²²²Rn activity concentrations above the Euratom recommended limit of 100 Bq L⁻¹. Three uranium series radionuclides (²³⁸U, ²³⁴U, and ²²⁶Ra) were also assayed by alpha-particle spectrometry, estimating the annual effective dose due to the presence of these natural radionuclides in drinking water.     

Reuse of mining wastewater in agricultural activities in Jordan

A pilot study was completed in the Al-Abyad area near phosphate mining activity in Jordan. Six plots of 50 m² each were planted with two types of plant species (Zea mays spp. and Medicago lupulina spp.) and irrigated using three types of water (fresh groundwater, mine wastewater, and hydride water consisting of 50% fresh and 50% mine wastewater) to investigate the suitability of utilizing mine wastewater for food production in the area. Water, soil and plant sampling was completed for each plot over different time intervals and analyzed for heavy metal (Cr⁺⁶, Ni⁺², Zn⁺² and Pb⁺²) in addition to major ionic composition of the water used for irrigation. Crop yield was estimated at the end of the experiment. Plots irrigated with mine wastewater showed slightly higher heavy metals concentrations and soil salinity during the experiment period was higher for plots irrigated with mine wastewater compared to plots irrigated with fresh water, and it was uniform through the upper 45 cm of the soil profile due to the high amount of irrigation water used during the experiment. Crop yield was inversely proportional to salinity as an increase of salinity by 2-folds resulted in reducing yield by almost 50%. However, no risk of heavy metals contamination was found in plants and soil. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Evaluation of Urban Sustainability in Specific Sectors in Latvia

In Latvia, the concept of sustainability is only slowly gaining recognition. An analysis of Development Plans prepared by the four largest cities of Latvia indicates that sustainability is presented as one of the guiding principles. However, a comparison of Development Plan policies against the urban sustainability issues reveals a great deal of ambiguity and contradiction.At the municipal level, planners and politicians lack indicators to gauge whether the long-term goals of Development Plans and the principles of sustainable development are being achieved. As a consequence, the broad public is deprived of the opportunity to assess for itself the process of development in relation to Development Plan policies, thus limiting accountability in development decision-making. Relevant statistical data collected on a regular basis are required to create sustainability indicators reflecting sustainability issues, to supplement and replace existing statistical compilations pertaining almost exclusively to economic growth and consumption. Development and utilisation of sustainability indicators can be an effective instrument for promoting the values of sustainable development amongst politicians, planners and the broad public and for enhancing accountability in decision-making.     

Natural radionuclides in bottled water in Austria

Concentration levels of 226Ra, 222Rn and 210Pb were analyzed in domestic bottled waters commercially available in Austria. Concentrations up to 0.23 Bq/l, with a geometric mean of 0.041 Bq/l were found for 226Ra. Concentrations for 222Rn ranged from <0.12-18 Bq/l, the geometric mean being 0.54 Bq/l. Lead-210 was analyzed in selected samples, the concentrations ranging from <2 to 34 mBq/l, with a geometric mean of 4.7 mBq/l. Ingestion doses resulting from consumption of these waters were calculated for the geometric mean and the maximum concentrations of the three radionuclides. The effective dose equivalents for different age groups of the population due to the intake of 226Ra range from 0.001 to 0.22 mSv/y and of 210Pb from 0.0003 to 0.05 mSv/y. Ingestion doses from 222Rn are low compared to those from 226Ra and 210Pb, ranging from 0.0001 to 0.011 mSv/y for adults and children, respectively. The doses are compared to the total ingestion dose from dietary intake of natural radionuclides on an annual basis.     

Radon concentrations in a spa in Serbia

The paper presents the results of indoor radon concentration survey in 201 homes and offices in Niska Banja (the Spa of Nis), a well-known health resort and a spa in the South-East of Serbia. Radon indoor concentrations were determined by active charcoal method, according to standard EPA procedure. The indoor radon concentrations were in the range of up to 200 Bq/m(3) (47%), from 200-600 Bq/m(3) (26%) and over 600 Bq/m(3) (27%). Three areas of extremely high average radon concentrations were found (1,340-4,340 Bq/m(3)), with a maximum above 13,000 Bq/m(3). The content of natural radionuclides ((226)Ra, (214)Pb, (214)Bi, (235)U, (228)Ac, (212)Pb, (212)Bi, (208)Tl, (40)K) and (137)Cs, as well as the content of total uranium, thorium and potassium in mud used in peloidotherapy in the Health Institute "Niska Banja" was determined, too. The activities of the radionuclides were determined on an HPGe detector, by standard gamma spectroscopy. The results indicated considerably high amounts of total uranium and thorium (0.021 g/kg mud and 0.003 g/kg mud, respectively), due to the karsts origin of the soil.