准噶尔盆地箭杆杨生长模型及生长进程动态分析

揭示树高、胸径和材积的动态变化过程,对掌握树木个体生长的基本规律和制定相应的抚育管理措施具有重要的现实意义。以准噶尔盆地防护林树种箭杆杨为研究对象, 运用树干解析法,对19 a生箭杆杨的树高、胸径、材积的生长规律进行调查研究。结果表明：箭杆杨的树高速生阶段集中在第3~14 a,胸径速生期为第2~19 a,材积速生期为第2~18 a。树高早期生长缓慢, 其速生期比胸径和材积晚,材积表现为早期速生。在胸径快速增长期间适当进行施肥管理,有利于培育优质大径材。箭杆杨成熟年龄在第27~30 a。建立的箭杆杨树高、胸径和材积生长的6种模型：幂函数型、二、三次多项式回归型、对数型、Logistic以及Richards方程均取得显著的拟合效果(P<0.01),Richards方程是模拟箭杆杨树高、胸径和材积生长进程的最佳模型。     

Stand structure and height-diameter relationship of a degraded Populus euphratica forest in the lower reaches of the Tarim River,Northwest China

Understanding stand structure and height-diameter relationship of trees provides very useful information to establish appropriate countermeasures for sustainable management of endangered forests. Populus euphratica, a dominant tree species along the Tarim River watershed, plays an irreplaceable role in the sustainable development of regional ecology, economy and society. However, as the result of climate changes and human activities, the natural riparian ecosystems within the whole river basin were degraded enormously, particularly in the lower reaches of the river where about 320 km of the riparian forests were either highly degraded or dead. In this study, we presented one of the main criteria for the assessment of vitality of P. euphratica forests by estimating the defoliation level, and analyzed forest structure and determined the height-diameter(height means the height of a tree and diameter means the diameter at breast height(DBH) of a tree) relationship of trees in different vitality classes(i.e. healthy, good, medium, senesced, dying, dead and fallen). Trees classified as healthy and good accounted for approximately 40% of all sample trees, while slightly and highly degraded trees took up nearly 60% of total sample trees. The values of TH(tree height) and DBH ranged from 0–19 m and 0–125 cm, respectively. Trees more than 15 m in TH and 60 cm in DBH appeared sporadically. Trees in different vitality classes had different distribution patterns. Healthy trees were mainly composed more of relatively younger trees than of degraded tress. The height-diameter relationships differed greatly among tress in different vitality classes, with the coefficients ranging from 0.1653 to 0.6942. Correlation coefficients of TH and DBH in healthy and good trees were higher than those in trees of other vitality classes. The correlation between TH and DBH decreased with the decline of tree vitality. Our results suggested that it might be able to differentiate degraded P. euphratica trees from healthy trees by determining the height-diameter correlation coefficient, and the coefficient would be a new parameter for detecting degradation and assessing sustainable management of floodplain forests in arid regions. In addition, tree vitality should be taken into account to make an accurate height-diameter model for tree height prediction.     

准噶尔盆地农田防护林树种青杨的生长规律研究

揭示杨树人工林在生长特性方面的变化规律对进一步挖掘杨树人工林的生产潜力和保证林木速生丰产具有十分重要的意义。以新疆准噶尔盆地农田防护林21a生青杨为研究对象,运用树干解析法对其树高、胸径、材积的生长规律进行调查研究。结果表明:青杨生长过程可以分为三个时期,第0～6a为幼树期,第7～15a为速生期,第16～21a为成熟期。树高速生阶段集中在第3～14a,胸径速生期为第6～16a,材积速生期为第7～15a。在胸径快速增长期间适当进行施肥管理,有利于培育优质大径材。青杨数量成熟年龄约为18a,初始防护成熟龄在第8a。建立的青杨树高、胸径和材积生长的六种模型:幂函数型、对数型、指数型、二/三次多项式回归型以及Logistic生长方程均取得较好的模拟效果(R2>0.809),三次多项式方程是模拟青杨树高和胸径生长进程的最佳模型,Logistic模型是模拟青杨材积生长进程的最佳模型。     

新疆山地针叶林乔木胸径-树高关系分析

树木的生长包括了径向生长和垂直生长两个方面,这两方面具有密切的关系,这一关系既受到树木本身的控制,同时也受森林立地条件的影响.通过分析新疆阿尔泰山、天山南北坡以及昆仑山区11个地点120个样方的胸径-树高关系.结果表明:昆仑山的尖削度(taper)显著大于其余3地,其潜在最大树高(potential height,H*...     

祁连山青海云杉种群种内竞争分析

采用逐步扩大范围的方法和改进的单木竞争指数模型对祁连山亚高寒山区青海云杉（Picea crassifolia）]林内设置的1 hm²样地内的青海云杉种内竞争状况进行了分析.结果表明：① 在青海云杉种群中,随着样圆半径的增加,竞争强度逐渐减弱,青海云杉个体的竞争影响样圆半径为6 m。② 青海云杉种内竞争强度随着对象木胸径的增加,竞争强度不断减小,在径级为5~10 cm、25~30 cm时,竞争强度随径级的增加急剧减小,并在径级25~30 cm形成明显拐点。随着径级的继续增大,青海云杉受到的竞争压力变化较为平缓,竞争主要发生在径级小于25~30 cm植株上。③ 青海云杉种内竞争强度和对象木胸径大小服从乘幂函数,并达到显著水平。实验数据表明,该模型能很好的用于青海云杉种群种内竞争强度的预测。     

Exploring tree diversity and stand structure of savanna woodlands in southeastern Sudan

Savanna woodlands in Sudan host great biodiversity, provide a plethora of ecosystem goods and services to local communities, and sustain numerous ecological functions. Although the importance of the Acacia trees in these areas is well known, up-to-date information about these woodlands' diversity is limited and changes in their woody vegetation composition, density, diversity and relative frequency are not monitored over time. This study explored tree diversity and stand stage structure in Nuara Reserved Forest, a typical savanna woodland ecosystem in southeastern Sudan. A total of 638 circular sample plots (1000 m² for each) were established using a systematic sampling grid method. The distance between plots was 200 m. In each plot, all living trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥5.00 cm were identified and counted, and their DBH values were recorded. From these data, tree composition, diversity, density and stage structure were assessed. There were 12,259 individual trees representing four species (Acacia seyal, Balanites aegyptiaca, Acacia Senegal and Acacia mellifera) that belong to two families. The dominant species was Acacia seyal. Average tree density was 191 trees/hm² and the Shannon-Weiner index for trees diversity was 0.204. Overall, young trees comprised 86.30% of the forest. The state of tree richness and density in the study area was low compared to other similar environments in the region and around the world. We recommended adoption of a proper management system that includes monitoring of woody vegetation diversity in this forest, and management actions to enhance tree diversity and sustain ecosystem services to local communities. In addition to care for the dominant Acacia seyal stands, more attention and conservation should be devoted to reestablishing Acacia senegal and Acacia mellifera trees because of their high ecological and economic values for local communities.     

Effects of defoliation caused by the processionary moth on growth of Crimean pines in western Turkey

An outbreak of the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea wilkinsoni Tams (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae), began in spring 1998 and lasted 6 years in a Crimean pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) plantation in western Turkey. The effects of PPM on the radial, height and volume growth of Crimean pine trees were investigated by examining the increment losses for three defoliation intensities (groups). PPM activity in Crimean pine stand was assessed through radial increment analysis of cores extracted at breast height. In 2004, increment cores were collected from moderate and high defoliation and low defoliation dominant or co-dominant trees. Based on the sample, annual radial growth indices from 1998 to 2004 were calculated. Growth functions were defined as the cumulative sum of radial, height and volume increment graphically compared between Crimean pine defoliation group sample trees. The sample trees are the same subspecies and varieties. After the defoliations, radial, height and volume growth of low defoliation group trees was found to be significantly greater than that of the other affected groups. During the 1998–2004 period the total radial growth of low, moderately affected and highly affected trees was, respectively, 49, 33 and 31 mm; the total height growth was 3.1, 1.8 and 1.0 m; and the total volume growth was 50, 14 and 10 dm³.     

祁连山青海云杉林群落结构特征分析

通过区域尺度,以祁连山国家自然保护区东段的哈溪林场、中段的西水林场和西段的祁丰林场3个典型分布区的青海云杉纯林为研究对象,以设立的典型临时样方调查材料为研究基础,对祁连山青海云杉的群落结构特征进行了分析,包括青海云杉林成层结构、胸径结构、树高结构和冠幅结构的静态分布,并对胸径、树高和冠幅三者之间的相互关系进行了曲线拟合。结果表明：① 青海云杉林群落成层现象明显,可划分为乔木层、灌木层、草本层和苔藓层,祁连山东、中、西段青海云杉林乔木层结构参数与林下灌木层、草本层结构参数在一定程度上呈负相关,祁连山中段苔藓较为发达;② 祁连山东段青海云杉胸径结构呈“间歇”型,中段呈“倒J”型,西段呈“单峰”型,同时树高和冠幅结构表明,青海云杉林普遍存在更新不良的问题;③ 对祁连山不同研究区域青海云杉个体及3个调查区域所有个体的胸径、树高与冠幅进行曲线拟合,发现三者之间相关显著,均可用乘幂曲线模型Y=aX^b 进行较好的描述（P＜0.01）。上述结论可为祁连山青海云杉的可持续经营、群落恢复和抚育管理提供科学依据。     

天山北坡天山云杉的种群结构特征和空间分布格局

从径级结构、静态生命表、存活曲线和个体空间分布格局等方面研究新疆天山北坡天山云杉的种群结构特征与空间分布规律。研究结果表明:1)种群年龄结构中幼苗幼树(Ⅰ级)比例最大(82.11%),中树(Ⅲ-Ⅵ级)和大树(Ⅶ-Ⅹ级)比例次之,小树(Ⅱ级)比例最小(0.26%)的规律;2)种群死亡率在Ⅰ径级最高(99.70%),随着径级的增加,死亡率呈现"高-低-高"模式,种群生命期望呈现"低-高-低"的模式;3)天山云杉种群的存活曲线接近于DeeveyⅢ型,即Ⅰ径级存活指数最高(6.91),Ⅱ径级(1.16)急剧下降,Ⅱ-Ⅴ径级逐渐上升,随后逐渐下降;4)种群格局随取样尺度由25-400m2增加,聚集强度逐渐降低,其中,在取样规模为25和150m2尺度上聚集分布强度较大;5)随着种群年龄增加,分布格局由聚集型向随机型过渡,聚集强度减弱。幼苗幼树在取样规模为25和150m2尺度上聚集分布强度较大;中树在50m2和150m2尺度上较大;而小树和大树聚集强度不受取样面积影响。因此,天山北坡的天山云杉天然林应适当间伐以促进更新,种群更新的最适林隙面积为25m2。     

Allometric biomass equations of Larix sibirica in the Altay Mountains,Northwest China

Boreal forests are important carbon sinks and have tremendous potential to mitigate climate change. Aboveground biomass of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) stands in the Altay Mountains, Northwest China was studied and allometric equations that are related to the biomass of aboveground components using diameter at breast height (DBH) or both DBH and height (H) as independent variables for L. sibirica trees were derived in this paper. A linear simultaneous equation system by using either DBH or both DBH and H (DBH&H) indices, was used to ensure additivity of the biomass of individual tree components, and was fitted for L. sibirica. Model performance was validated using the jackknifing test. Results indicate that the goodness-of-fit for the regressions was lowest for the needles (R² ranging from 0.696 to 0.756), and highest for the stem wood (R² ranging from 0.984 to 0.997) and the aggregated biomass components (R² ranging from 0.994 to 0.995). The coefficient of determination for each component was only marginally improved in terms of model fit and performance in the biomass equations that used DBH&H as the independent variables compared to that used DBH as the independent variable, and needles yielded an even worse fit. Stem biomass accounted for the largest proportion (87%) of the aboveground biomass. Based on the additive equations that used DBH as the single predicitor in this study, the mean aboveground carbon stock density and the carbon storage values of L. sibirica forests were 74.07 Mg C/hm² and 30.69 Tg C, respectively, in the Altay Mountains. Empirical comparisons of published equations for the same species growing in the Altay Mountains of Mongolia were also presented. The mean aboveground carbon stock density estimated for L. sibirica forests was higher in the Chinese Altay Mountains than in the Mongolian Altay Mountains (66.00 Mg C/hm²).     

Sampling plans for aphids and their parasitoids in blueberry fields in Argentina

Densities of aphids (Aphis gossypii and A. spiraecola) and mummified aphids at different phenological stages of a blueberry crop were estimated for the purpose of developing sampling plans. Our data set comprised 99 samples taken during the period 2006–2008 in four fields in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. Estimation of population density based on the proportion of sample units infested by individuals was investigated. We also calculated the minimum number of sample units to estimate the density of individuals on buds and buds + flowers using enumerative sampling. The relative precision of both methods was compared. Moreover, an enumerative sequential sampling protocol was developed. The presence–absence sampling plan gave density estimates with large variances (as measured by confidence intervals and large standard errors). The aggregation of mummies was similar on buds and buds + flowers, so the required number of sample units for density estimates was the same. Relative precision of estimates was much lower for the presence–absence sampling than the enumerative sampling, even at intermediate densities. An enumerative sequential plan would be the most appropriate and useful method in management plans for aphids and mummified aphids in blueberries.     

Detection of Citrus Leaf Blotch Virus Using Digoxigenin-Labeled cDNA Probes and RT–PCR

Citrus leaf blotch virus (CLBV) was detected by dot-blot hybridization (DBH), and tissue print hybridization (TPH) and by one-step RT–PCR in citrus plants growing both in the greenhouse and in the field. DBH with digoxigenin-labeled cDNA probes allowed CLBV detection in dsRNA-rich and total RNA preparations equivalent to 5 and 0.1mg of infected tissue, respectively. DBH gave intense signals with RNA extracts from young bark, tender shoots and young leaves, whereas the best hybridization signals with TPH were obtained using tender shoots and young leaf petioles. One-step RT–PCR was 10-fold more sensitive than DBH and amplification was obtained with all infected tissues. CLBV was readily detected in young leaves of infected Eureka lemon, Marsh grapefruit, Nules clementine, Navelina orange and Nagami kumquat in the greenhouse, using either hybridization or RT–PCR, but not in leaves of Pineapple sweet orange. Detection in field trees was less consistent and was only achieved by RT–PCR and DBH. CLBV was detected by DBH and RT–PCR in different citrus varieties from several geographic areas showing bud union crease on trifoliate rootstocks, but not in neighbor trees with the same symptoms or in other varieties showing bud union crease on those rootstocks. Failure to detect CLBV in trees with bud union crease could be due to low virus titer or uneven distribution within the plant. Alternatively, a different agent could be involved in causing bud union crease.     

Prevention of pine wilt disease induced by Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and Monochamus galloprovincialis by trunk injection of emamectin benzoate

The pine wood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer) Nickle is the causal agent of pine wilt disease. We evaluated the efficacy of emamectin benzoate (EB) for preventing wilt disease in the field and its effect on the vector Monochamus galloprovincialis (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Four experimental plots were delimited in a maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) forest in Portugal. Trunk-injection trials with EB included three dose-rates: 0.032 g a.i. cm^?1 diameter at breast height—DBH, n?=?75 trees; 0.064 g a.i. cm^?1 DBH, n?=?75 trees; and 0.128 g a.i. cm^?1 DBH, n?=?50 trees; along with an untreated control plot (n?=?75 trees). EB was successfully injected and translocated in pines at an effective concentration. None of the treated trees died after a period of 26 months, contrasting with a 33% mortality of non-treated pines. Analysis of residues successfully detected EB in branches of treated pines, with the quantity increasing relative to the injection dose rate, and was found to have a clear effect on the longevity and feeding activity of adult M. galloprovincialis feeding on branches. EB was efficient in preventing wilt disease and bark beetle attacks in the terrain, and its application by trunk injection is a new option for wilt disease management programs in Portugal and in Europe.     

Experimental design and parameter estimation for threshold models in seed germination

Hydrotime threshold models are used to describe the dynamics of seed germination in response to reduced water availability. Although these models provide several biologically relevant parameters, it is unclear which statistical technique is best suited to their estimation. Most commonly, these models are fitted to the observed cumulative proportions of germinated seeds, using nonlinear regression. However, this approach has been questioned, due to its inability to account for some characteristics of data sets obtained from germination assays, such as interval censoring and correlated observations. We used Monte Carlo simulations to determine the bias and precision of nonlinear regression estimators for a wide range of experimental designs and hypothetical plant species. Results showed that point estimates of model parameters were almost unbiased, while standard errors obtained from nonlinear regression were on average 3–4 times smaller than the Monte Carlo precision. Standard errors obtained by nonparametric resampling methods were comparable to Monte Carlo precision and provided good coverage (very close to the nominal 95% value), with at least 4–8 treatments by four replicates and 50 seeds per Petri dish. With 10 seeds per Petri dish, a higher number of replicates were necessary to achieve good coverage. In particular, good results were obtained with the grouped jackknife (delete‐a‐Petri‐dish), which accounts for repeated observations on the same Petri dish. It is suggested that nonlinear regression may be used to fit the hydrotime model, in association with resampling methods, particularly when the purpose is to compare ‘hydrotime’ parameters across treatments or plant species.     

毛乌素沙地引种樟子松生长特性的研究

毛乌素沙地引种樟子松生长特性的研究结果表明 ,樟子松在该地区的适应性强 ,生长快 ,树高、胸径及材积的速生期分别在 4— 1 5年、6— 1 5年及 9— 2 1年。根据樟子松的生长特性 ,通过浇水灌溉等抚育措施 ,提高樟子松的成活率和发挥早期快速生长潜力更为重要 ,同时樟子松的生长比油松好 ,在该地区防风固沙林建设中樟子松值得大力推广 ,逐渐替换油松和杨树     

Growth loss of Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani) stands as related to periodic outbreaks of the cedar shoot moth (Dichelia cedricola)

An outbreak ofDichelia cedricola (Diakonoff) (Lep.: Tortricidae), the cedar shoot moth (CSM), began in spring 1998 and lasted 3 years. This was the first monitored outbreak of the CSM in Isparta, Turkey. Tree crowns recovered to near normal condition by the middle of each growing season (in early June) during the outbreak. Tree volume and volume element increments were examined throughout the outbreak cycle from 1954 to 2001. In the past, CSM activity in stands of Lebanon cedar (Cedrus libani A. Rich.) was assessed through radial increment analyses. Cedar tree ring chronologies were analyzed for evidence of the CSM. Tree-ring chronologies from nonhost cedar (nondefoliated sample trees) were used to estimate potential growth in the host cedar (defoliated sample trees) during current and past outbreaks; all trees selected were the same subspecies and varieties. Regional outbreaks of the CSM were identified by synchronous and sustained growth periods of the trees. In 2001, increment cores were collected from 17 host and 16 nonhost dominant or codominant trees and annual radial growth indices from 1954–2001 were calculated for each of two host and two nonhost sample plots. Growth functions were defined as the cumulative sum of radial, height, and volume increment, and were graphically compared between CSM host cedar and nonhost cedar trees. Tree ring evidence suggests that a large-scale outbreak occurred in 1955 (from 1955 to 1966) and a small outbreak occurred in 1985 (1985–1990) and in 1998 (1998-continued) in the study area. The average diameter growth reductions around 1955, 1985 and 1998 were 40%, 46% and 7% of potential, respectively. It was concluded that a narrow latewood band is significant indicator of defoliation by the CSM and the outbreaks appear to be associated with dry winter and spring weather prior to the autumn and winter in which wood feeding occurred. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Nov. 24, 2004.     

Impact of defoliation by the pine processionary moth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Thaumetopoea pityocampa</Emphasis>) on radial,height and volume growth of calabrian pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus brutia</Emphasis>) trees in Turkey

An outbreak of the pine processionary moth (PPM),Thaumetopoea pityocampa Schiff. (Lepidoptera: Thaumetopoeidae), began in spring 1998 and lasted 5 years in aPinus brutia Ten. (Calabrian pine) stand. Tree volume and volume elements increments were examined throughout a PPM outbreak cycle from 1981 to 2003, for an even aged, pure, undisturbed, young Calabrian pine stand. Tree ring chronologies of ‘control’ Calabrian pine, which was not defoliated by PPM during the period of 1998–2003, were used to estimate potential growth characteristics in the ‘host’ Calabrian pine (moderate and high defoliation groups) for current and past outbreaks. Increment cores were collected from 70 host and 78 control dominant or co-dominant trees and annual radial growth indices from 1981–2003 were calculated for each defoliation group in a 41 point sampling. Growth functions were defined as the cumulative sum of radial, height, and volume increment, and graphically compared between host Calabrian pine (3 moderate and one high), four control Calabrian pine and one host Crimean pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) sample trees. At least three severe outbreak periods were identified (from 1981–86; 1992–97; and 1998–2003), much of the study area being severely affected by PPM. Tree ring evidence suggests that large scale (in 1981, 1992, 1998) and partial (in 1988) outbreaks occurred in the study area. Negative inflections of host radial growth curves relative to control height and volume indicated PPM activity. The periodic average diameter growth reductions (in %) in 1981, 1988, 1992 and 1998, respectively, were 0, 13, 5 and 0 for control, 12, 8, 7 and 2 for moderate, and 18, 5, 0 and 7 for high defoliation groups. Outbreaks appear to be associated with dry winter and spring weather prior to the autumn and winter in which feeding occurs. http://www.phytoparasitica.org posting Sept. 28, 2004.     

晋西刺槐人工林生长分化过程分析

提要：利用56株解析木,分析了不同密度、坡向、坡位刺槐林生长分化特征。研究表明：不同密度、坡向、坡位的林分生长量、速生期长短不一,导致了林木分化。分化过程主要表现在分级木的相互转换中。刺槐林以树高、胸径表述的转换率分别为：35．7％,21．4％。将坡向按转换率从高到低的排序为：阳坡、半阳坡、阴坡。不同坡向以树高、胸径表...     

Testing a Rapid Diagnostic Medium for Erwinia amylovora and Development of a Procedure for Sampling Blossoms in Pear Orchards

ABSTRACT The coliform agar produced by Merck was tested for rapid diagnosis of Erwinia amylovora (the causal agent of fire blight) in pear blossoms. The medium enabled the diagnosis to be completed within 36 h. Diagnoses performed with the medium were confirmed by the BIOLOG and the fatty-acid profile methods. The diagnostic medium was used to determine the spatial distribution of colonized blossoms in the orchards and it was found that E. amylovora may be distributed both in clusters and at random. These findings were used in the development of a statistical model for sampling blossoms in the orchard. The model determines the number of trees to be sampled in the orchard and the number of blossoms be taken from each tree, which would enable the true colonization incidence of blossoms in the orchard to be estimated at desired levels of accuracy and confidence. Parameters included in the model are: the total number of trees in the orchard (T), the number of trees to be sampled in the orchard (t), the number of blossoms to be sampled from each tree (n), the true colonization incidence of blossoms (pi), a coefficient of aggregation (rho), the required level of confidence (1 - alpha), and the required level of accuracy (L). Sensitivity analyses revealed that the parameter governing sample size is the required level of accuracy. Sampling of 20 blossoms from each of several hundred trees is required to achieve an accuracy of +/-1%, but only a few single trees are needed for an accuracy level of +/-10%. A sampling procedure then was developed, validated with an independent data set, and found to be accurate. It was concluded that sampling of pear blossoms and estimation of the incidence of blossom colonization by E. amylovora could improve fire blight management, but not in all cases.     

Effects of rater bias and assessment method on disease severity estimation with regard to hypothesis testing

The effects of bias (over‐ and underestimates) in estimates of disease severity on hypothesis testing using different assessment methods was explored. Nearest percentage estimates (NPE), the Horsfall–Barratt (H‐B) scale, and two linear category scales (10% increments, with and without additional grades at low severity) were compared using simulation modelling to assess effects of bias. Type I and type II error rates were used to compare two treatment differences. The power of the H‐B scale and the 10% scale were least for correctly testing a hypothesis compared with the other methods, and the effects of rater bias on type II errors were greater over specific severity ranges. Apart from NPEs, the amended 10% category scale was most often superior to other methods at all severities tested for reducing the risk of type II errors. It should thus be a preferred method for raters who must use a category scale for disease assessments. Rater bias and assessment method had little effect on type I error rates. The power of the hypothesis test using unbiased estimates was most often greater compared with biased estimates, regardless of assessment method. An unanticipated observation was the greater impact of rater bias compared with assessment method on type II errors. Knowledge of the effects of rater bias and scale type on hypothesis testing can be used to improve accuracy and reliability of disease severity estimates, and can provide a logical framework for improving aids to estimate severity visually, including standard area diagrams and rater training software.