Flood risk assessment and coping capacity of floods in central Vietnam

In the perspective of improving and disseminating risk assessment methodologies and rise preparedness of people to flood hazard this paper presents flood hazard maps estimated in the Quang Ngai province, in central Vietnam, for different return periods in terms of depth, duration and velocity using the FLO-2D, hydrodynamic model with a 90 m × 90 m resolution grid. Then, based on the vulnerability functions determined from field surveys and the feedback to 400 questionnaires distributed to people regarding residential areas, paddy rice, road networks and the number of deaths and injuries, the total amount of tangible and intangible damage at each point in the study area is estimated and mapped, indicating risk levels and expected annual damage in case of flooding. The resulting damage functions are quite different from others available in the literature, as a result of the adaptive capacity and the resilience of the population to floods in the investigated area. Damage functions to buildings, agricultural areas, road infrastructures and people are normalised with respect to mean flooding depth and flooding hazard so that they can be generalized to areas with similar geographical conditions. In this way, a more comprehensive knowledge on the negative effects of floods is carried out, providing an important input to flood management plans in order to mitigate flood damage in tropical areas similar to the Quang Ngai province.     

基于流域洪水危险分析的社工坑整治方案

为优化位于广州市白云新机场配套综合开发区范围内的社工坑整治方案,采用MIKEFLOOD耦合一维MIKE11和二维MIKE21水动力模型对铁山河流域进行洪水危险分析,模拟流域遭遇不同重现期洪水时的淹没状况。洪水危险分析结果表明,当遭遇20年一遇设计洪水时,社工坑流域淹没面积达4.03 km2,最大淹没水深达0. 93 m,淹没区域主要位于开发强度较大的中下游地区,而干流铁山河下游段尚有一定行洪能力;提出新建两条支涌将社工坑中下游洪水引入铁山河下游的整治方案。     

Uncertainty Estimation in Flood Inundation Mapping: An Application of Non‐parametric Bootstrapping

Disaster prevention planning is affected in a significant way by a lack of in‐depth understanding of the numerous uncertainties involved with flood delineation and related estimations. Currently, flood inundation extent is represented as a deterministic map without in‐depth consideration of the inherent uncertainties associated with variables such as precipitation, streamflow, topographic representation, modelling parameters and techniques, and geospatial operations. The motivation of this study is to estimate uncertainties in flood inundation mapping based on a non‐parametric bootstrapping method. The uncertainty is addressed through the application of non‐parametric bootstrap sampling to the hydrodynamic modelling software, HEC‐RAS, integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). This approach was used to simulate different water levels and flow rates corresponding to different return periods from the available database. The study area was the Langat River Basin in Malaysia. The results revealed that the inundated land and infrastructure are subject to a flooding hazard of high‐frequency events and that the flood damage potential is increasing significantly for residential areas and valuable land‐use classes with higher return periods. The proposed methodology, as well as the study outcomes, of this paper could be beneficial to policymakers, water resources managers, insurance companies and other flood‐related stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于MIKE FLOOD的中小河流溃堤洪水风险分析

近年来洪水引发的中小河流堤防溃决等洪水灾害风险问题凸显,因此进行溃堤洪水风险分析对于加强中小河流的洪水管理及减少溃堤洪水带来的损失具有十分重要的意义。以江西省罗塘河为例,借助MIKE软件中的MIKE 11、MIKE 21及其耦合模块对罗塘河遭遇10a一遇及20a一遇洪水进行溃堤洪水演进模拟。然后依据灾害系统理论从洪水的危险性和易损性两方面选择淹没水深、淹没流速、淹没历时等7个指标构建溃堤洪水风险评价指标体系。最后利用GIS技术与层次分析法对罗塘河洪水风险进行了评价。结果表明:洪水危险区面积为0.19 km~2,占研究区总面积的2.18%,主要分布在地势低洼的富港地区;重灾区和中灾区面积为1.25 km~2,占研究区总面积的14.37%,主要分布在重文和蒋元乐家;安全区为研究区域内洪水没有到达并且地物覆盖价值较低的地区,包括游家店、下胡、大塘杨家和马山等处。研究成果可为中小河流防洪规划、避洪转移等提供参考依据。     

Spatial distribution of interstitial assemblages in the floodplain of the rhǒne river

Interstitial invertebrate assemblages of the Rhǒne River were studied at the scale of the entire alluvial plain. Ten stations, located in five former channels, were sampled with a Bou-Rouch pump at 50 and 100 cm depth. The chemical characteristics of the interstitial water allowed the differentiation of stations without hydrological connections with the subterranean habitats, stations fed by surface water coming through the bank sediments and stations fed by true groundwater. The faunal assemblages reflect the difference between connected and isolated stations but did not demonstrate any differences related to the origin of the water. In fact the interstitial assemblages are distributed along a gradient from the margin of the floodplain (stations with a high physical stability associated with the absence of flood periods) to the area close to the main channel regularly influenced by floods. These results demonstrate that both groundwater characteristics and the position of the station in the floodplain influence the spatial distribution of interstitial fauna in the alluvial valley of the Rhǒne River.     

Flood risk assessment in the region surrounding the Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments were conducted in the area surrounding the new Bangkok International Airport. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the flood flow through the study area. Results show different levels of flood hazard for risk zones for 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods of rainfall.     

基于HEC-RAS及HEC-GeoRAS的溃坝洪水分析

洪水漫顶、渗漏等原因引起的垮坝失事,将会给下游人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,因此,对溃坝洪水引起的淹没范围的准确预测至关重要。通过对大渡河上22座梯级水电站进行对比分析,选定长河坝电站水库大坝为研究对象,分析洪水漫顶引起的长河坝溃坝,及由其引起的下游黄金坪、泸定水电站的连续溃坝对泸定县的淹没范围。首先利用HEC-GeoRAS和Google地球提取研究区域的地形数据,然后将建好的模型导入到一维溃坝洪水计算工具HEC-RAS中进行溃坝洪水演进模拟,最后通过HEC-GeoRAS分析研究区域的洪水淹没范围及流速分布。结果表明:由长河坝溃坝引起的下游泸定县的洪水淹没范围为左右岸平均漫堤宽度约200 m,已经淹没到了城区;从流速分布图得出河道中心的流速均较大,最大流速为16.217 m/s。研究结果可为洪水风险图的制作及防洪决策提供一定的技术支持。     

三峡水利枢纽大江截流设计

三峡工程施工导流采用“三期导流、明渠通航”方案。二期施工围左岸，进行主河床截流，迫使江水从右岸导流明渠下泄。截流流量为11月下旬的20年一遇最大日平均流量14000m3／s，截流时间选在1997年11月中旬，采用上游单戗堤立堵截流方案。龙口位于主河床深槽右侧，龙口宽130m，最大水深达60m。为防止戗堤头部坍塌，在龙口段先行平抛垫底。龙口进占由两岸同时进行，投抛材料为块石和石渣。设计龙口水位落差0．51～0．71m，口门流速2．13～2．73m／s。     

Use of L-Moments Approach for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in Sicily, Italy

Extremely great floods are among environmental events with the most disastrous consequences for the entire world. Estimates of their return periods and design values are of great importance in hydrologic modeling, engineering practice for water resources and reservoirs design and management, planning for weather-related emergencies, etc. Regional flood frequency analysis resolves the problem of estimating the extreme flood events for catchments having short data records or ungauged catchments. This paper analyzes annual maximum peak flood discharge data recorded from more than 50 stream flow gauging sites in Sicily, Italy, in order to derive regional flood frequency curves. First these data are analyzed to point out some problems concerning the homogeneity of the single time series. On the basis of the L-moments and using cluster analysis techniques, the entire region is subdivided in five subregions whose homogeneity is tested using the L-moments based heterogeneity measure. Comparative regional flood frequency analysis studies are carried out employing the L-moments based commonly used frequency distributions. Based on the L-moment ratio diagram and other statistic criteria, generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area. Regional flood frequency relationships are developed to estimate floods at various return periods for gauged and ungauged catchments in different subregions of the Sicily. These relationships have been implemented using the L-moment based GEV distribution and a regional relation between mean annual peak flood and some geomorphologic and climatic parameters of catchments.     

三座店水库运行50年后取水塔含沙量数值模拟分析

三座店水库所属河流含沙量高,工程建成运用后河道的水沙条件将会发生改变,可能会影响整体河势调整和行洪能力。为准确掌握库区泥沙淤积状况,采用 Delft3D 三维水动力泥沙输移数学模型,对水库运用50年后取水塔各层取水窗口的含沙量进行数值模拟,分析含沙量与流速、含沙量持续时间等特征关系。模拟结果表明：水库运用50年后,左、右泄洪洞和取水塔的含沙量大于原地形含沙量;50年一遇频率洪水含沙量较100年和20年高,垂线平均含沙量由大到小依次为右洞、左洞、取水口;50年系列大于3 kg／m3的含沙量持续时间不超过23．5 d 。     

山东对黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的作用不可替代

黄河河口自然状况特殊,仅黄河口治理及其三角洲湿地保护这方面,即可说明山东对于黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有不可替代性.研究表明:(1)应在竭力维持清水沟流路稳定前提下,将刁口河流路作为防洪与生态补水的辅助流路,使黄河三角洲成为统筹推进山水林田湖海草沙综合治理、系统治理的典范.(2)宽河段应采用"两道防线"布局与河道生...     

Applying Bivariate Normal Distribution to Flood Frequency Analysis

Abstract

This article provides a procedure for using the bivariate normal distribution to describe the joint distributions of correlated flood peaks and volumes as well as correlated flood volumes and durations. The Box-Cox transformation (power-transformation) method is used to normalize original marginal distributions of flood peaks, volumes, and durations regardless of the original forms of these distributions. The power-transformation parameter is estimated using the maximum likelihood method. The joint cumulative distribution function, the conditional cumulative distribution function, and the associated return periods can be readily obtained based on the bivariate normal distribution. The method is tested and validated using observed flood data from the Batiscan River basin in the province of Quebec, Canada. The resulting theoretical distributions show a good fit to observed ones.     

基于GIS和遥感数据的洪水风险分析

随着城市化进程的不断深化,洪涝灾害已经成为威胁人类生存的一种主要自然灾害。人们逐步认识到,仅仅使用工程措施来防御洪水是远远不够的,非工程措施近年来已进入到防洪领域。管理洪水、分析洪水灾害是非工程措施的一个重要方面。应用GIS工具研究ASAR数据和DEM数据获取研究区域的水深信息。以东洞庭湖区域为研究对象,运用3种常用的插值方法（IDW、Kriging和Topo to Raster）进行水面插值．但这些方法的插值效果不是很好。一种新的插值方法（ADDM,基于平均距离插值方法）被用来进行水面插值。相互比较的结果表明,ADDM方法在水深精度和水面连续性方面都优于其他3种方法。最后,根据ADDM方法获取的水深信息和洪水频率图制作东洞庭湖区洪水风险图。     

Hydrological response to climate change and human activities: A case study of Taihu Basin,China

Climate change and human activities have changed a number of characteristics of river flow in the Taihu Basin. Based on long-term time series of hydrological data from 1986 to 2015, we analyzed variability in precipitation, water stage, water diversion from the Yangtze River, and net inflow into Taihu Lake with the Mann-Kendall test. The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and water stage was first analyzed for the Taihu Basin and the Wuchengxiyu(WCXY) sub-region. The optimized regional and urban regulation schemes were explored to tackle high water stage problems through the hydrodynamic model. The results showed the following:(1) The highest, lowest, and average Taihu Lake water stages of all months had increasing trends. The total net inflow into Taihu Lake from the Huxi(HX) sub-region and the Wangting Sluice increased significantly.(2) The Taihu Lake water stage decreased much more slowly after 2002; it was steadier and higher after 2002. After the construction of Wuxi urban flood control projects, the average water stage of the inner city was 0.16 e0.40 m lower than that of suburbs in theflood season, leading to the transfer of flooding in inner cities to suburbs and increasing inflow from HX into Taihu Lake.(3) The regional optimized schemes were more satisfactory in not increasing the inner city flood control burden, thereby decreasing the average water stage by0.04 e0.13 m, and the highest water stage by 0.04 e0.09 m for Taihu Lake and the sub-region in the flood season. Future flood control research should set the basin as the basic unit. Decreasing diversion and drainage lines along the Yangtze River can take an active role in flood control.     

MIKE21模型在南新联圩洪水模拟中的应用

为了分析江西省南新联圩防洪保护区在圩提溃决后洪水在区内的演进过程,根据南新联圩防洪保护区周围湖泊、河流及圩区情况,建立了模拟保护区内洪水演进的MIKE21模型。分别采用2010年和2012年实测洪水资料对模型进行率定和验证,结果表明模型具有较高的模拟精度。在赣江50 a一遇洪水叠加湖口22.5 m洪水位(1954年型)的工况下,利用所建立的模型对防洪保护区内的淹没水深、流速和洪水演进过程等进行计算分析,获得了南新联圩防洪保护区发生溃堤后的受灾发展情况。研究成果可为南新联圩防洪预警及时发布、转移财产、逃生避险等提供技术支撑。     

Flood Control in the Cuiabá River Basin, Brazil, with Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

Periodic flooding in the Cuiabá River Basin (CRB), which is located in the upper Pantanal region, in central-western Brazil, led to the construction of the Manso multipurpose reservoir and power plant. This study evaluates the influence of the Manso reservoir on the attenuation of downstream flooding specifically in the metropolitan area of Cuiabá, which is the capital city of the state of Mato Grosso. The flood routing provided by the Manso reservoir was simulated by means of the Puls modified method (level-pool routing method), and the translation of the flood wave during floodplain passage was calculated with the CLiv hydrodynamic model for critical hydrological events. It is demonstrated that the reservoir reduces the frequency of flood risk to downstream communities for return periods between 50 and 100 years. Despite the flood attenuation, other measures should be undertaken in addition to the reservoir operation to mitigate the impacts of flooding in a comprehensive and appropriate way. In particular, measures related to floodplain land use planning and management are important to ensure that the safety of the population does not exclusively depend on the upstream reservoir.     

嫩江下游洪水演进及对洪泛区植被影响分析

为揭示嫩江下游洪水演进规律及对洪泛区植被的影响,利用MIKE FLOOD建立了嫩江江桥—大赉河段的一、二维水动力耦合模型,选取1998年与2013年汛期实测资料对河段糙率进行了率定与验证,并模拟了典型河段4种不同重现期洪水的演进过程。在此基础上基于2000—2019年MODIS卫星的MOD13Q1数据集,获取了不同洪水频率淹没范围内的植被指数(NDVI、EVI),评估了嫩江下游不同重现期洪水扰动对植被的影响。结果表明:模型在率定期与验证期的模拟效果符合甲级预报精度,模型模拟精度较高;不同重现期内的植被指数具有较强的季节变化规律,且洪水对植被具有明显的破坏作用,但这种破坏作用在嫩江流域周期性相对较短,表明该地区植被的可恢复性较强;同时受洪水频繁淹没程度影响,不同重现期的植被指数符合中度干扰假说。     

An integrated modeling approach to predict flooding on urban basin.

Correct prediction of flood extents in urban catchments has become a challenging issue. The traditional urban drainage models that consider only the sewerage-network are able to simulate the drainage system correctly until there is no overflow from the network inlet or manhole. When such overflows exist due to insufficient drainage capacity of downstream pipes or channels, it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extents using these traditional one-phase simulation techniques. On the other hand, the traditional 2D models that simulate the surface flooding resulting from rainfall and/or levee break do not consider the sewerage network. As a result, the correct flooding situation is rarely addressed from those available traditional 1D and 2D models. This paper presents an integrated model that simultaneously simulates the sewerage network, river network and 2D mesh network to get correct flood extents. The model has been successfully applied into the Tenpaku basin (Nagoya, Japan), which experienced severe flooding with a maximum flood depth more than 1.5 m on September 11, 2000 when heavy rainfall, 580 mm in 28 hrs (return period > 100 yr), occurred over the catchments. Close agreements between the simulated flood depths and observed data ensure that the present integrated modeling approach is able to reproduce the urban flooding situation accurately, which rarely can be obtained through the traditional 1D and 2D modeling approaches.     

晋城市片区洪涝过程响应分析与马路行洪模拟

以晋城市金村区为例,利用SWMM与ICM-2D模型进行多情景洪涝过程模拟,分析降雨雨型与下垫面对晋城市片区内涝的影响;构建双层SWMM模拟马路行洪,分析金村大道和珏山路的淹没特征,并与ICM-2D模型模拟结果进行对比验证。结果表明:随着雨峰系数与降雨重现期的增大,地表洪水总量、淹没范围与水深增大,危险性等级提高;同一降雨重现期下的雨峰与洪峰间的时间间隔随雨峰系数的增大而减小;当52.53%的下垫面转化为不透水面时,同一降雨重现期下的综合径流系数约增加0.5;金村大道市委党校路段与珏山路水西村路段是主要易涝区,淹没面积分别为0.50hm²和1.31hm²;双层SWMM在识别易涝点与推求洪水淹没要素方面具有较好的适用性。     

珠江防洪 亟待加强：西,北江“94.6”大洪水灾后反思

1994年6月中旬,珠江流域西、北两江同时发生建国以来最大洪水,波及广西、广东沿江120多个市、县,造成近300亿元惨重的经济损失,直接威胁广州市和珠江三角洲等经济发达的地区。洪灾后反思,痛定思痛,深感对珠江洪水及其危害要有足够的认识,要提高水患意识,总结经验教训,加强防范。