Mapping inundation probability due to increasing sea level rise along El Puerto de Santa María (SW Spain)

Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions.     

国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评

海平面上升是全球变暖的主要后果之一。尽管有少数冰川学家认为,气候变暖并不能确保雪积累量的显著增加,同时可能出现冰流的突然变化,因此南极冰盖在未来海平面变化中的作用存在很大的不确定性。但近几十年来南极半岛气温的急剧上升,已使大量的冰架崩解。冰架崩解并不对海平面产生真正的影响,但反映出南极洲气候与冰川存在急剧变化的可能。     

Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations

Storm surges in the North Sea are one of the threats for coastal infrastructure and human safety. Under an anthropogenic climate change, the threat of extreme storm surges may be enlarged due to changes in the wind climate. Possible future storm surge climates based on transient simulations (1961–2100) are investigated with a hydrodynamical model for the North Sea. The climate change scenarios are based on regionalized meteorological conditions with the regional climate model CCLM which is forced by AR4 climate simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM under two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES A1B and B1) and two initial conditions. Possible sea level rise in the North Sea is not taken into account. The analysis of future wind-induced changes of the water levels is focused on extreme values. Special emphasis is given to the southeastern North Sea (German Bight). Comparing the 30-year averages of the annual 99 percentiles of the wind-induced water levels between the four climate realizations and the respective control climates, a small tendency toward an increase is inferred for all climate change realizations toward the end of the twenty-first century. Concerning the German Bight, the climate change signals are higher for the North Frisian coastal areas than for the East Frisian ones. This is consistent with an increase in frequency of strong westerly winds. Considering the whole time series (1961–2100) for selected areas, this tendency is superimposed with strong decadal fluctuations. It is found that uncertainties are related not only to the used models and emission scenarios but also to the initial conditions pointing to the internal natural variability.     

中国东海海平面变化多尺度周期分析与预测

海平面变化规律尤其是对海平面变化周期和上升趋势的研究,已成为国内外科学界研究的热点问题.使用1992-2009年海平面卫星测高仪数据资料,运用小波变换方法对中国东海海平面变化的周平均数据信号进行多尺度周期分析,并通过Winters指数平滑法对未来海平面变化进行预测,结果显示:①1992-2009年东海海平面呈现波动上升...     

Designing a long-term flood risk management plan for the Scheldt estuary using a risk-based approach

The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs.     

Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. However, many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider sea level rise when assessing storm surge risk. Here we apply a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to sea level rise on Long Island, New York. We demonstrate a method for combining hazard exposure and community vulnerability to spatially characterize risk for both present and future sea level conditions using commonly available national data sets. Our results show that sea level rise will likely increase risk in many coastal areas and will potentially create risk where it was not before. We find that even modest and probable sea level rise (.5 m by 2080) vastly increases the numbers of people (47% increase) and property loss (73% increase) impacted by storm surge. In addition, the resulting maps of hazard exposure and community vulnerability provide a clear and useful example of the visual representation of the spatial distribution of the components of risk that can be helpful for developing targeted hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation strategies. Our results suggest that coastal agencies tasked with managing storm surge risk must consider the effects of sea level rise if they are to ensure safe and sustainable coastal communities in the future.     

Volume of Antarctic Ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, and its impact on global sea level change

The volume of Antarctic ice at the Last Glacial Maximum is a key factor for calculating the past contribution of melting ice sheets to Late Pleistocene global sea level change. At present, there are large uncertainties in our knowledge of the extent and thickness of the formerly expanded Antarctic ice sheets, and in the timing of their release as meltwater into the world’s oceans. This paper reviews the four main approaches to determining former Antarctic ice volume, namely glacial geology, glacio-isostatic studies, glaciological modelling, and ice core analysis and attempts to reconcile these to give a ‘best estimate’ for ice volume. In the Ross Sea there was a major expansion of grounded ice at the Last Glacial Maximum, accounting for 2.3–3.2 m of global sea level. At some time in the Weddell Sea a large grounded ice sheet corresponding to c. 2.7 m of global sea level extended to the shelf break. However, this ice expansion has not yet been confidently dated and may not relate to the Last Glacial Maximum. Around East Antarctica there was thickening and advance offshore of ice in coastal regions. Ice core evidence suggests that the interior of East Antarctica was either close to its present elevation or thinner during the last glacial so the effect of East Antarctica on sea level depends on the net balance between marginal thickening and interior thinning. Suggested East Antarctic contributions vary from a 3–5.5 m lowering to a 0.64 m rise in global sea level. The Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet thickened and extended offshore at the Last Glacial Maximum, with a sea level equivalent contribution of c. 1.7 m. Thus, the Antarctic ice sheets accounted for between 6.1 and 13.1 m of global sea level fall at the Last Glacial Maximum. This is substantially less than has been suggested by most previous studies but the maximum figure matches well with one modelling estimate. The timing of Antarctic deglaciation is not well known. In the Ross Sea, terrestrial evidence suggests deglaciation may have begun at c. 13,000 yr BP¹ but that grounded ice persisted until c. 6,500 yr BP. Marine evidence suggests the western Ross Sea was deglaciated by c. 11,500 yr BP. Deglaciation of the Weddell Sea is poorly constrained. Grounded ice in the northern Antarctic Peninsula had retreated by c. 13,000 yr BP, and further south deglaciation occurred sometime prior to c. 6,000 yr BP. Many parts of coastal East Antarctica apparently escaped glaciation at the LGM, but in those areas that were ice-covered deglaciation was underway by 10,000 yr BP. With existing data, the timing of deglaciation shows no firm relation to northern hemisphere-driven sea level rise. This is probably due partly to lack of Antarctic dating evidence but also to the combined influence of several forcing mechanisms acting during deglaciation.     

The extent of saltwater intrusion in southern Baldwin County,Alabama

Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays, Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore, geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses.     

Flooding scenarios due to land subsidence and sea‐level rise: a case study for Lipari Island (Italy)

Archaeological and instrumental data indicate that the southern sector of the volcanic island of Lipari has been subsiding for the last 2100 years due to isostatic and tectonic factors, at variable rates of up to ~11 mm a^?1. Based on this data, a detailed marine flooding scenario for 2100 AD is provided for the bay of Marina Lunga in the eastern part of the island from (1) an ultra‐high‐resolution Digital Terrain and Marine Model (DTMM) generated from multibeam bathymetry (MB) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), (2) the rate of land subsidence from Global Positioning System (GPS) data and (3) the regional sea‐level projections of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). When land subsidence is considered, the upper bound of sea‐level rise is estimated at 1.36 m and 1.60 m for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, respectively. Here, we show the expected impact of marine flooding at Lipari for the next 85 years and discuss the hazard implications for the population living along the shore.     

Contamination of the cement raw material in a quarry site by seawater intrusion,Darica-Turkey

The open pit mining nearby shoreline is planned to be extended into below sea level in order to use additional reserves of the cement raw material (marl). The raw material is currently contaminated by seawater intrusion below a depth of 20 m up to the distance of 90 m from shoreline. Seawater intrusion related contamination of the material used for the cement production was investigated by means of diffusion process for the future two below sea level mining scenarios covering 43 years of period. According to the results, chloride concentrations higher than the tolerable limit of a cement raw material would be present in the material about 10–25 cm inward from each discontinuity surface, controlling groundwater flow, located between 170 and 300 m landward from the shoreline at below sea level mining depths of 0–30 m. The estimations suggest that total amounts of dilution required for the contaminated raw material to reduce its concentration level to the tolerance limit with uncontaminated raw material are about 113- to 124-fold for scenario I (13 years of below sea level mining after 30 years of above sea level mining) and about 126- to 138-fold for scenario II (43 years of simultaneous above and below sea level minings).     

On the recent global mean sea level changes: Trend extraction and El Niño's impact

The spatial sampling offered by TOPEX and Jason series of satellite radar altimeters and its continuity during the last twenty years are major assets to provide an improved vision of the global mean sea level (GMSL). The objective of this paper is to examine the recent GMSL variations (1993–2012) and to investigate the correlation between the GMSL and ENSO (El Niño-southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, a mean sea level anomalies time series, obtained from TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 measurements, is used to determine the trend of GMSL changes by using a simplified form of an unobserved components model (namely UCM). Then, to investigate the impact of the ENSO phenomenon on the GMSL changes, we considered the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3 region (5N–5S 150W–90W). Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis are performed to expose common power between the GMSL changes and the SSTA index and their relative phase in the time–frequency space. The results indicate that there are in the estimated GMSL's trend a number of fluctuations over short periods that are least partly related to the El Niño/La Niña episodes. Cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis indicate that a significant correlation between GMSL and ENSO occurred during 1997–1998, 2006–2007, 2009–2010 El Niño events and 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 La Niña ones. All these areas show in-phase relationship, suggesting that GMSL and SSTA index vary synchronously.     

The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km² is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km², 4000 km², 5300 km² and 7200 km², respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。     

Managed Retreat of Saline Coastal Wetlands: Challenges and Opportunities Identified from the Hunter River Estuary,Australia

We analyse the potential impacts of sea-level rise on the management of saline coastal wetlands in the Hunter River estuary, NSW, Australia. We model two management options: leaving all floodgates open, facilitating retreat of mangrove and saltmarsh into low-lying coastal lands; and leaving floodgates closed. For both management options we modelled the potential extent of saline coastal wetland to 2100 under a low sea-level rise scenario (based on 5 % minima of SRES B1 emissions scenario) and a high sea-level rise scenario (based on 95 % maxima of SRES A1FI emissions scenario). In both instances we quantified the carbon burial benefits associated with those actions. Using a dynamic elevation model, which factored in the accretion and vertical elevation responses of mangrove and saltmarsh to rising sea levels, we projected the distribution of saline coastal wetlands, and estimated the volume of sediment and carbon burial across the estuary under each scenario. We found that the management of floodgates is the primary determinant of potential saline coastal wetland extent to 2100, with only 33 % of the potential wetland area remaining under the high sea-level rise scenario, with floodgates closed, and with a 127 % expansion of potential wetland extent with floodgates open and levees breached. Carbon burial was an additional benefit of accommodating landward retreat of wetlands, with an additional 280,000 tonnes of carbon buried under the high sea-level rise scenario with floodgates open (775,075 tonnes with floodgates open and 490,280 tonnes with floodgates closed). Nearly all of the Hunter Wetlands National Park, a Ramsar wetland, will be lost under the high sea-level rise scenario, while there is potential for expansion of the wetland area by 35 % under the low sea-level rise scenario, regardless of floodgate management. We recommend that National Parks, Reserves, Ramsar sites and other static conservation mechanisms employed to protect significant coastal wetlands must begin to employ dynamic buffers to accommodate sea-level rise change impacts, which will likely require land purchase or other agreements with private landholders. The costs of facilitating adaptation may be offset by carbon sequestration gains.     

环渤海海平面上升与三角洲湿地保护

环渤海地区三角洲是我国滨海重要的湿地发育区,在淤泥质滩地型湿地上发育着众多的动、植物群落,成为若干珍稀水禽的栖息地。从地面垂直形变与潮位资料等分析,黄河三角洲和辽河三角洲的地面下降速率为3～4mm/a和3.5～4.5mm/a,而相对海平面上升速率为45～5.5mm/a和5～6mm/a,预计至2050年总体的相对海平面上升量可达40～55cm。海平面上升对三角洲湿地的影响首先是直接淹没大片农田、油井和市区,其次是加剧海岸线的侵蚀与后退,还有风暴潮与洪涝灾害的加剧。针对三角洲湿地生态系统所面临的生态风险与人为活动干扰,有必要采取更加科学合理的保护与开发模式。本文介绍了生境更新与湿地调整的管理策略,以及淤长型滨海湿地的滚动开发模式。交替采用“渐进”与“跃进”的滚动开发,可保持湿地总量的动态平衡,有利于三角洲的可持续发展。     

面向未来的海面变化研究

长期以来以地质时期海面变化过程等理论性研究为主要方向的海面变化研究经过７０年代在观念、方法和资料积累方面的突破，自８０年代初期以来进入了以“面向未来”为基调的成熟发展的新阶段，出现了一大批关于未来海面变化幅度及其影响和对策的研究成果，形成了较为完整的研究体系。９０年代初以来的几年间，世界海面研究的活跃领域是地质历史时期（例如ＬＧＭ，５ｅ等阶段）的海面实况、极地冰原对气候变化的反应、海面控制原理、海面模型以及绝对海面的航天测量技术与应用等方面。这一情况在一定程度上体现了“预测热”之后的“冷思考”。中国海面变化研究近年来取得了令世人瞩目的迅速发展，今后应注意引进先进技术方法，加强学科间的交叉合作，发掘自身的优势，向纵深发展     

An integrated methodology to assess future water resources under land use and climate change: an application to the Tahadart drainage basin (Morocco)

The assessment of freshwater resources in a drainage basin is not only dependent on its hydrologic parameters but also on the socio-economic system driving development in the watershed area; the socio-economic aspect, that is often neglected in hydrologic studies, is one of the novelties of this study. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) presenting an integrated working methodology and (2) studying a local case of a North African watershed where scarce field data are available. Using this integrated methodology, the effects of climate and land use change on the water resources and the economic development of the Tahadart drainage basin in Northern Morocco have been evaluated. Water salinization, tourism, urbanization, and water withdrawals are a threat to water resources that will increase with future climate change. The Tahadart Basin (Morocco 1,145 km²) is characterized by rain-fed agriculture and by the presence of two water retention basins. Assessment of the effects of climate and land use change on this drainage basin was based on current and future land cover maps obtained from spatial interactions models, climate data (current and future; scenario A1b for the period 2080–2100), and hydrological models for water budget calculations. Land use suitability maps were designed assuming a A1b Special Report on Emissions Scenarios socio-economic development scenario. The most important conclusions for the period 2080–2100 are the following: (1) Freshwater availability within the watershed will likely be affected by a strong increase in evaporation from open water surface bodies due to increased temperature. This increase in evaporation will limit the amount of freshwater that can be stored in the surface reservoirs. (2) Sea level rise will cause flooding and salinization of the coastal area. (3) The risk for drought in winter is likely to increase. The methodology used in this paper is integrated into a decision support tool that is used to quantify change in land use and water resources.     

南极冰盖消融对全球海平面的影响(英)

In this paper, supposing that the earth is a spherically symmetric, perfectly elastic and isotropic, we derive the equation of the variation of relative sea level, utilize our previous results of the surface load Love numbers for PREM (1981) model, and compute the global relative sea level rise on the assumption that 10 meters thickness of Antarctic ice sheet would be melted in the future fifty years.     

Geological Drilling in Polar Regions: Progress and Perspectives

The Antarctic and the Arctic regions play a key role in global sea level change and carbon cycle, and reserve key information of the Cenozoic transition from a green-house to an ice-house Earth. They have become hot spots in earth science studies. The geological drilling projects in both polar regions (e.g., DSDP/ODP/IODP/ICDP) have achieved remarkable successes, which have freshened the knowledge of global environmental and climatic evolution. Along with the Cenozoic global cooling, the timing of glaciation was almost synchronous on both the Antarctic and the Arctic. Accompanied with the Antarctic ice sheet build-up and increased terrestrial weathering, the enhanced formation of Antarctic Bottom Water exerts significant impact on global ocean circulation. The volume of unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuates during glacial-interglacial periods showing 40 ka obliquity cycles, its volume significantly reduced or collapsed during several peak interglacials or long warm intervals. The Southern Ocean plays a significant role modulating atmospheric CO₂ concentration, global deep water circulation and nutrient distribution, productivity at different time scales. Sea level responses to the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets at different time intervals were tested, which provide valuable clue for predicting future sea level changes. The upcoming IODP drilling projects on polar regions will keep focusing on the high latitude ice sheet development, Southern Ocean paleoceanographic evolution, land-ocean linkages in the Arctic, and the impacts on the global climate, which will provide important boundary conditions for predicting global future climate evolution.     

Mid-Holocene evolution of a tidal basin in the western Netherlands: a model for future changes in the northern Netherlands under conditions of accelerated sea-level rise?

A scenario for the future development of the Dutch Wadden Sea is derived from an evolutionary model for tidal basins during a rise in sea level. The model is based on the evolution of the Atlantic/Subboreal Holland tidal basin, between 7000 BP and 3500 BP. It emphasizes the balance between the storage capacity created by a sea-level rise and the amount of sediment available.

If the rate of relative sea-level rise exceeds the rate of sediment supply, the innermost (central) portions of the basin will not receive sufficient sediment for an intertidal morphology to be preserved. Eventually, sand will be deposited only in tidal channels and in the flood-tidal delta through which the sediment is supplied, mud deposition will occur in the interchannel areas and salt marshes will disappear.