东海盆地西湖凹陷沉积记录的天文旋回响应

基于东海陆架盆地古新世-始新世前人解释的三级层序成果,认为东海陆架盆地现有的三级层序划分不足以满足当下研究的需要,由此开展了旋回地层与层序地层研究,重新将三级层序界面的与基于对岩性及地震相特征变化的解释相结合,加入了天文旋回驱动的机制,阐明海平面变化驱动三级层序的特征。以东海陆架盆地西湖凹陷的BSH-1井及其相邻的NB-25-2-1井为研究对象,结合地层学研究基础,选取GR测井曲线为古气候替代指标,应用旋回地层学的理论及其时间序列分析、频谱分析技术的方法,对两口典型钻井进行了天文旋回分析,借助邻井时间锚点建立了有效的天文年代标尺,探讨了斜率周期信号变化的振幅调制的约1.2 Ma长周期与海平面变化以及三级层序发育的关系,认为东海陆架盆地三级层序受控于稳定的约1.2 Ma的斜率振幅调制周期。最终形成一套绝对天文年代标尺与一套三级层序划分方案。     

东海陆架全新统高分辨率层序地层学研究

在高分辨率１４Ｃ测年、岩石、生物、化学、同位素、气候及磁性地层学研究成果基础上,通过不同沉积背景典型钻孔的沉积学分析,运用层序地层学理论,对东海陆架全新统进行了高分辨率层序划分及对比;建立了全新世层序地层格架及海平面变化过程;提出了相应的层序成因模式。研究结果表明,东海陆架全新统相当于一个发育中的六级（１～１０ｋａ）层序,可进一步划分为３个七级（０．１～１ｋａ）层序和若干个更次级层序。代表１个六级或３个七级周期相对海平面变化过程中叠加有若干更次级的海平面波动,它们与地球旋回谱系中的太阳带、历法带密切相关。七级层序具有与三级层序相近的内部构型和成因格架。在东海陆架全新世沉积演化过程中,长江三角州至少有３次不同程度地越过东海陆架进入冲绳海槽,并滞留有至少３层海侵改造“残积砂”沉积。在东海陆架全新世海平面变化期间,最大海平面时期为约距今６～５ｋａ,大致高于现今海平面２～４ｍ,最低海平面在距今１０ｋａ左右,大约低于现今海平面１３０ｍ。目前,由于温室效应的影响,海平面仍呈小幅度波浪式上升。事实证明,层序地层学不仅丰富了现代海洋沉积学的内容,而且解决了许多海洋沉积学未能解决的问题。     

中国沿岸海平面变化原因的探讨

对中国沿岸的月均海平面的变化原因进行了较为细致的分析，讨论了温、压、降水对中国沿岸海平面的影响。得出渤海是我国月均海平面变化最大的海区；黄海月均海面的变化仅次于渤海；东海更次；南海最小。出现极值的时间自北向南依次滞后。静压效应的影响也是自北而南逐渐变小。月均海面中除包含了８～９年及１０多年的长周期变化外，１４．０和１８．０个月左右的周期对海平面有明显的影响，３年的周期不是一种沿岸传播的波动周期。ＥｌＮｉｎｏ对中国沿岸海平面起补偿平衡作用。黑潮的增强使中国沿岸海平面均有明显的抬升。     

中国近海潮汐变化对外海海平面上升的响应

针对外海海平面上升对中国沿海潮波系统和潮汐水位可能带来的影响,通过西北太平洋潮波数学模型对边界海平面上升后潮波变化进行了数值模拟。研究发现边界海平面上升后,在无潮点附近东侧迟角增加,西侧迟角减小;无潮点北侧振幅增加,南侧振幅减小;辽东湾、渤海湾顶、辽东半岛东海域、海州湾至鲁南沿海、苏北沿海、台湾海峡至浙东沿海和南海平均潮差增加,海平面上升0.90 m后潮差最大增幅达0.40 m;长江口、杭州湾至对马海峡、朝鲜西海岸和莱州湾海域潮差减小。随着海平面上升量值的增加,渤海、台湾海峡潮差变化速率相对稳定,黄海、东海和南海站位变化速率有所变动;平均高水位的变化趋势与潮差一致;潮差增加的区域,高水位抬升幅度超过边界海平面上升幅度。海平面上升引起的高水位超幅变化,增加了沿海地区对风暴潮和其他灾害防护的风险。     

东海陆架盆地第三纪海平面变化

东海陆架盆地是建立西太平洋新生代海平面变化的关键地区。本文以层序地层和沉积体系分析为基础,利用微体古生物带化石资料,建立了东海陆架盆地第三系相对精度较高的年代地层格架。通过古生态分析、成因相及特征沉积构造分析和反射地震剖面的海岸上超分析,辅以地球化学参数变化研究,首次编制了东海陆架盆地第三纪海平面变化曲线。自第三纪以来,能识别的长周期二级旋回海平面变化4次,短周期三级旋回变化26次,相对海平面变化幅度在0-150m.分析发现海平面变化具有不对称性,即海侵作用速度大于海退作用速度。与Haq曲线对比也有较大的差异。     

二叠纪-三叠纪之交全球海平面变化研究

二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的全球海平面变化是当前沉积学研究的热点和难点问题,其与当时的显生宙最大规模生物灭绝事件存在一定关联,具有重要的研究意义。然而二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的全球海平面变化存在较多争议,受单剖面或区域范围内相对海平面变化研究程度的制约,在缺乏从沉积学角度的综合对比研究的情况下,可能会影响对全球海平面变化过程与持续时间的判识。综述了二叠纪-三叠纪界线附近的海平面变化研究进展,整合了多位学者的研究剖面、主要观点及认识,梳理了全球海平面变化的主要观点（“上升论”和“下降-上升论”）,包括其各自的发展历程、代表剖面及海平面变化识别特征、海平面上升/下降的原因以及海平面变化与生物灭绝的关系等,并在此基础上,探讨了二叠纪-三叠纪全球海平面变化研究过程中产生争议的原因。本文旨在为二叠纪-三叠纪界线（PTB）附近海平面变化研究提供线索,同时为研究全球PTB地质事件发生的背景及差异性原因提供基础证据。     

东海盆地第三系层序地层学初探

在前人研究成果基础上,运用沉积学、生物地层学 、测井地层学及地震地层学,对东海盆地第三系进行了较系统的层序地层学研究,结果表明东海盆地第三系可划分为５个二级层序和１２个三级层序以及若干次一级层序在三级层序中,Ⅰ型层序７个,Ⅱ型层序５个,平均年限５．３Ｍａ,它们代表１２次三级周期海平面变化产物,其中最高海平面期为伊普雷斯晚期,最低海平面工矿企业有鲁珀利早期。根据有孔虫带和钙质超微化石组合,它们大致可     

华北石炭二叠纪海平面变化对聚煤作用的控制

根据层序地层研究,华北石炭二叠纪沉积建造形成于一个二级海平面变化周期内,其中包括4个三级和26个四级海平面变化旋回,而几次大的聚煤作用都发育在三级海平面下降至上升的转折时期,在层序地层格架中处于高位体系域的顶部。薄煤层的形成与四级海平面变化旋回相对应,发育于准层序的顶部。聚煤作用的发育受到海平面变化的控制,海平面变化提供了有机质堆积的潜在容纳空间,海平面升降周期的长短决定了聚煤作用持续发育的时间,周期性的海平面变化控制了聚煤作用的时空演化。      

应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害与生态环境问题

海平面上升已引起各国政府和科技界的高度关注。预计未来30年,浙江沿海海平面将比2009年升高88~140 mm。海平面上升与浙江沿海平原地面沉降迭加将进一步恶化地质与生态系统,引发许多灾害问题,制约沿海区域经济社会的可持续发展。本文主要就如何应对海平面上升与地面沉降迭加引发的地质灾害链与生态环境问题进行了探讨,认为要从地球系统科学角度,重视对陆-海相互作用机制与生态环境效应的研究,着手考虑建立陆海(包括入海河流)统筹的海岸带地质与生态环境监测评价系统。     

中国全新世海平面变化周期与世界未来海平面变化规律

从发现海滩岩断代序列模式后,通过多学科综合研究又发现气候变化周期、闽粤海岸升降周期和海平面变化周期等皆为500a 左右。在13000aB.P.前中国气候变暖,海平面为以上升为主的升降期;近6000多年海平面以周期性上下波动为特征;而近3100年寒冷气候以每1000年7个纬度的速度南移,海平面向上波动幅度变小。按气候变化周期,现阶段为变寒期,将抵消一部分“温室效应”,世界未来50—100年的海面可能与今持平或有所下降。按照冰期和间冰期的时间规律,未来6000—7000年的海平面将下降几十米。     

全球海平面变化与中国珊瑚礁

本文以政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）于2001年专门报告中关于21世纪内全球气候变化的温度和海平面变化的预估为前提。简要介绍了中国珊瑚礁的定位、类型和分布,对其进行了成熟度分类,评估了全球海平面变化对中国珊瑚礁的影响。据预测,21世纪我国各海域海平面上升以南海最大,为32 ~ 98cm,其平均上升速率为0.32 ~ 0.98cm/a。从海平面上升速率与珊瑚礁生长速率的理论对比分析,中国珊瑚礁基本上能与前者同步生长,即使海平面以预估高值上升,也不会威胁其生存。从中国珊瑚礁成熟度较高、其生长趋势以侧向生长为主的现实状况出发,未来全球海平面上升能为其创造向上生长的有利条件。从古地理学“将古论今”观点出发,自全新世6000aBP以来曾存在过的高海平面和较高表层海水温度的历史,也可以佐证,21世纪的全球海平面上升不会对中国珊瑚礁的存在和发育造成威胁。现存的珊瑚礁岛应对于全球海平面上升,可以做到“水涨岛高”,它们能够屹立于上升了的未来海平面之上;但对于岛上的人工建筑物则会被浸、被淹,或被淘蚀和破坏,因此必须根据海平面上升的幅度和速率,采取相应的防御措施。     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

The impact of sea-level rise on the coast of Tianjin-Hebei,China

Bulletins of China’s National Sea Level show that the average rising rate of sea-levels in China is 3.3 mm/a over the past 40 years, with an obviously accelerated rising trend in the last decade. The rate of relative sea-level rise of the Yangtze River Delta reached >10 mm/a after considering the land subsidence, and Bohai Bay is even greater than 25 mm/a. The impact of the sea level rise to the coastal area will be greater in the coming years, so carrying out an assessment of this rising trend is urgent. This paper, taking the coastal area of Tianjin and Hebei as examples, comprehensively evaluates the impact of sea-level rise through multitemporal remote sensing shoreline interpretation, ground survey verification, elevation measurements for both seawall and coastal lowlands. The results show that the average elevation of the measured coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei is about +4 m, and the total area of >100 km² is already below the present mean sea level. More than 270 km, ca. 31% of the total length of the seawall, cannot withstand a 1-in-100-year storm surge. Numerical simulations of the storm flooding on the west coast of Bohai Bay, for 1-in-50-years, 1-in-100-years, 1-in-200-years and 1-in-500-years, show that if there were no coastal dykes, the maximum flooding area would exceed 3000 km², 4000 km², 5300 km² and 7200 km², respectively. The rising sea has a direct and potential impact on the coastal lowlands of Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the latest development in international sea-level rise prediction research, this paper proposes 0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m as low, middle and high sea level rise scenarios by 2100 for the study area, and combines the land subsidence and other factors to the elevation of the existing seawall. Comprehensive evaluation results indicate that even in the case of a low scenario, the existing seawall will not be able to withstand a 1-in-100-years storm surge in 2030, and the potential flooding areas predicted by the model will become a reality in the near future. Therefore, the seawall design in the coastal areas of Tianjin and Hebei must consider the combined effects of land subsidence, sea level rise and the extreme storm surges caused by it.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。     

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: seasonal adjustment and trend extraction within the framework of SSA

The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the past years are the major assets to provide an improved vision of the Mediterranean sea level changes. In this paper, an automatic signal extraction approach, based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), is utilized for analysis and seasonal adjustment of the Mediterranean Sea level series. This automatic approach enables us to overcome the difficulties of visual identification of trend constituents that sometimes we encounter when using the conventional SSA method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean mean sea level is dominated by several harmonic components. The annual signal is particularly strong and almost covers 73.62 % of the original sea level series variation whiles its amplitude is about 15 cm. The extracted trend also indicates that the Mediterranean main sea level has significantly been raised during the period 1993–2012 by 2.44?±?0.4 mm yr^?1. As an important consequence, considering the current situation, if this trend continues, the Mediterranean Sea level will be raised about 22 cm by the end of this century, which makes a dramatic effect on several issues such as land, flora, fauna, and people activities established along the Mediterranean coastlines.     

渤海湾西岸CZ01钻孔沉积物粒度端元分析及其气候—海平面变化响应*

沧州地区位于海陆交互的渤海湾西岸,易受到海平面变化和极端气候事件的影响,对于全球气候变化的响应十分敏感。应用非参数化端元分析模型将沧州地区CZ01钻孔中更新世晚期以来的沉积物粒度划分出6个端元并分析其物源,结合已有地质记录,揭示不同时间尺度下各端元对气候—海平面变化的响应。结果表明: (1)EM1(5.01 μm)主要为远源的风尘输入,EM2(13.18 μm)和EM3(39.81 μm)为古黄河所携带的沉积物,EM4(69.18 μm)和EM5(138.04 μm)为海相沉积物,EM6(275.42 μm)可能指示古洪水等极端气候事件。(2)深海氧同位素(MIS)Ⅰ 阶段,气候温暖湿润,EM4+5含量指示渤海海平面整体呈波动上升的趋势并逐渐接近现代海平面。该阶段内由于11.5 ka BP左右的新仙女木事件以及5.1 ka BP左右冷干事件的发生,渤海海平面在稳定上升状态后出现停滞或小幅下降的现象; 而在9.5 ka BP、7.5 ka BP、5.8 ka BP和1.7 ka BP左右,东亚夏季风增强导致降水增加,渤海海平面升高。(3)MIS Ⅵ 阶段北半球气候冷干,150~132 ka BP左右因喜马拉雅运动减弱造成的区域沉降中心转移致使渤海海面升高。MIS Ⅴ 阶段气候波动剧烈: 在间冰期暖期(5a、5c和5e)气候暖湿,渤海海平面上升; 而MIS5b和5d时期渤海海面高度较低。MIS Ⅳ 阶段较MIS5a末期海平面突然下降后趋于稳定,期间出现若干次小规模海侵事件,可能与东亚夏季风频繁变化有关。MIS Ⅲ 阶段至末次冰盛期海平面大幅度下降且存在周期性升降变化,并在46 ka BP左右出现大规模海侵事件。MIS Ⅱ 阶段较MIS Ⅲ 阶段海平面出现小幅度下降,为低海平面时期; 伴随15 ka BP左右冰盛期的结束,东亚夏季风增强,海平面开始上升。渤海海平面180 ka BP以来的变化记录与北半球乃至全球范围内的地质记录存在一致性,与太阳辐射波动引起的冰川消融及东亚夏季风变化密切相关。     

Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management

Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.     

Microatoll record for large century-scale sea-level fluctuations in the mid-Holocene

Coral microatolls have been long used as precise indicators of past sea level, but their use for precise definition of detailed sea-level fluctuations is still rare. Here we report twelve high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometric ²³⁰Th ages for twelve rims of five mid-Holocene microatolls from an emerged reef terrace at Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea. This is a tectonically stable area, enabling us to reconstruct both the timing and trajectory of local sea-level fluctuations accurately. The elevations of these microatoll rims and cores were accurately determined relative to the surface of modern living microatolls at the same site. The results indicate that the sea level during the period of 7050–6600 yr bp (years before AD 1950) was about 171 to 219 cm above the present, with at least four cycles of fluctuations. Over this 450 yr interval, sea level fluctuated by 20–40 cm on century scales.     

压实作用下广西典型红树林区沉积速率及海平面上升对红树林迁移效应的制衡

气候变化造成的海平面上升是迫使红树林向陆迁移的主要驱动力, 而其自身通过捕沙促淤不同程度的减缓了海平面上升速率的影响。基于广西典型红树林区8根短柱的210Pb测年和含水率分析, 以考虑/未考虑沉积物压实作用为研究情景, 通过对比研究红树林区潮滩地表高程抬升速率和相对海平面上升速率的大小关系, 揭示当前海平面上升对广西红树林向陆/向海迁移的驱动机制。研究发现:未考虑压实作用下的沉积速率约是考虑压实作用下沉积速率的1.00~1.34倍(平均1.12倍), 压实作用明显;压实沉积速率介于0.16~0.78 cm/a, 其底层压实沉积速率与潮滩地表高程抬升速率相等。压实作用下, 英罗湾和丹兜海红树林区的地表高程抬升速率小于相对海平面上升速率;与未考虑压实作用得到的结论相悖。由于广西红树林海岸大都建有防波堤, 限制了红树林向陆的迁移;表明英罗湾和丹兜海的红树林正面临海平面上升的威胁。压实作用校正与否对地表高程抬升速率与相对海平面上升速率相当的区域尤为重要。