Physics of Seismic Source Ⅲ. Statistical Mechanics of Earthquakes

The statistical mechanics of earthquakes adopts the concepts and methodology of statistical mechanics, especially the theory of critical phenomena, in studying the preparation, initiation, propagation and healing of earthquake rupture, which forms a new branch in the physics of seismic source in recent years. This article introduces to the fundamental concepts of the statistical mechanics of earthquakes. The introduction includes the seismic Hamiltonian, percolation model, earthquake rupture nucleation, and Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. It is pointed out that some of the statistical mechanical models of earthquakes have a sound seismological basis. There is a smooth "transition" from the "classical" theory to the "modern" theory of seismic source.     

新疆于田两次7.3级地震之后南北地震带Benioff应变比分布特征研究

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity, the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center, the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21, 2008 and February 12, 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, M 〉 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas, the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area, which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.     

Study of the Non-Uniform Distribution of Earthquake Risk Within Potential Sources

Potential sources are aggregates of probable future epicenters.In this area,for source models currently,in common use for seismic risk analysis in China,the mean area of each potential source is about 3000-4000 km2.It is assumed that seismic risk has a uniform distribution within the range of each potential source,but studies have shown that the uniform distribution model to a large extent may give an underestimation of the seismic risk.In this paper,the relative distribution of historical epicenters in space within potential sources is discussed,a method is proposed to quantitatively describe the non-uniform distribution of strong earthquakes within potential sources,and some preliminary results are given.By using the results of this paper,seismic risk analysis and seismic zonation can be made more scientific and more reasonable.     

Corresponding Relation Between the Space-time Evolution of Seismic Apparent Strain and the Region of Strong Earthquakes in Yunnan

On the basis of our predecessors' research,we study the distribution and the space-time evolution characteristics of the seismic apparent strain field in Yunnan since the 1970's using the seismic data of Yunnan and its surrounding areas.The result shows that there is a rather strong corresponding relationship between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and strong earthquakes.In the nine earthquakes studied,anomaly areas of seismic apparent strain had appeared before eight earthquakes,including five occurring in the anomaly region and three on the edge.Finally,the investigative result is demonstrated primarily.     

Potential rupture surface model and its application on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influ-ence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. 1 This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; 2 The attitudes of poten-tial rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.     

Seismic imaging of the double seismic zone in the subducting slab in Northern Chile

Double seismic zones are commonly observed in the subducting slabs in a global scale, serving as ideal examples for studying the seismogenetic mechanism of the intermediate-depth earthquakes. In this study, we relocate earthquakes and determine seismic velocity models using the double-difference seismic tomography method in the northern Chile subduction zone where a double seismic zone exists. The results suggest that the double seismic zone in northern Chile is located at about 50–140 km depth, with an interval of approximately 20 km between the two zones. The upper seismic zone is characterized by relatively low Vp(～7.8–8.0 km/s), low Vs(～4.4–4.5 km/s) and high Vp/Vs(～1.85) above the depth of ～90 km, while the region below ～90 km is distinguished by relatively high Vp(～8.2 km/s), high Vs(～4.8 km/s) and slightly high Vp/Vs(～1.75), which may be related to a series of dehydration reactions of hydrous minerals in the subducted oceanic crust. In comparison, the lower seismic zone is featured by the anomaly of low Vp/Vs(～1.7), although some local areas may consist of relatively high Vp/Vs values(～1.8), possibly due to the dehydration reaction of serpentine. Based on the Vp, Vs, Vp/Vs anomalies combined with previous petrological experiments and thermodynamic models, it can be derived that intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly related to the dehydration of various hydrous minerals in the subducting slab. The dehydration process of hydrous minerals releases water into the subducting slab and subsequently leads to the increase of pore fluid pressure and the decrease of effective normal stress, thus causing the occurrence of brittle failure and intermediate-depth earthquakes in subduction zones. The imaging results of the northern Chile subduction zone further indicate that the existence of the double seismic zone is related to the dehydration process of different hydrous minerals.     

Investigation on the Site of the 2003 South Bomi （Tibet） MsS. 7 Earthquake

An earthquake with magnitude of 5.7 took place on Aug. 18, 2003 in the Nyingchi Region, Tibet. The macroseismic epicenter was located in the unpopniated high mountain area, 13 km south of Zhamo town, Bond County. The seismic intensity in the meizoseismal region was Ⅶ degree. The Ⅶ and Ⅵ areas were 2000 km^2 and 11000 km^2 , respectively. This seismic event is related to the movements of the Lhari fault trending in the NW direction and the ZhamoManiweng fault trending in the NE direction. As a result of this earthquakes, the buildings in the areas were badly damaged.     

Deformation Model Inferred from Focal Mechanisms in the Chinese Mainland and Its Adjacent Areas

We collect seismic moment tensors of the earthquakes occurring from 1900 to 2013 in and around the Chinese mainland and summarize the surface ruptures and displacements of 70 earthquakes with M S≥7. 0. We divide these large earthquakes into three types. Type A contains earthquakes with surface ruptures and displacements. Type B is earthquakes without displacements and Type C is those without any of this data. We simulate a triangular distribution of displacements for Type B and C. Then,we segment these large earthquakes by using their displacements and surface ruptures. Finally,kinematic models are determined from earthquake data and Bicubic Bessel spline functions. The results show that,first of all,the reasonability and spatial consistency of defined models are advanced.Strain rates have better continuity and are comparable with geologic and geodetic results in Himalaya thrust fault zones. The strain rates decrease in the Tarim basin and the Altun Tagh fault zones because of their low seismicity. The direction of compressional deformation in Gobi-Altay is changed from SE to NE and its extensional direction is changed from NE to NW. The extensional deformation in the Ordos block is diminished obviously. Secondly,earthquakes account for 30- 50% of expected motion of India relative to Eurasia determined from the NUVEL-1A model,with a missing component of 20 mm / a which may contain aseismic deformation such as fault creep and folds,the missing parts of earthquake data and elastic strain energy released by potential earthquakes.     

新疆南部构造区带与地震活动状态研究

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationally by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.     

Fault geometrical model of Dujiangyan section in Longmenshan fault zone

The focal mechanism solution on the seismic fault plane can reflect the geometric and kinematic characteristics of faults, and it is an important way to further study the fine structure of fault plane. From the focal mechanism solution of the earthquakes around the Dujiangyan fault in Longmenshan fault zone, we derived the average dip angle of Dujiangyan fault is 45.1° based on the seismic moment tensor theory. In order to refine the fault geometry structure, this paper decomposed it into multiple sub-fault planes along the length and width of the fault plane and forms a number of models A13, B13, A23 a, A23 b, A23 c, B23 a,B23 b and B23 c, then calculated the sub-fault's dip of each model. In order to clarify exactly which one of the fault models is closest to the real fault model, the fault slip was carried out for each model in turn, then compared the surface displacement of each model with GPS observations. The results show that B23 c model with high dip in shallow and small dip in deep is the best model, the lengths of each subfault of Dujiangyan fault from south to north are 33 km, 21 km and 46 km, respectively. When the depth of the fault bottom is about 11 km, the dip angles are 70.56°, 67.41° and 45.55°.When the depth of the fault bottom is about 30 km, The fault dip angles are 44.55°, 29.18° and 44.25°.     

The Characteristics of Seismic Activity Before the Devastating Earthquake with M wg. 0 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra

The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the Mw9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows ： ① The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth （namely between 500km and 689km）. Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥ 7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the Mw9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③ Two deep earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M ③ 6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the Mw9.0 earthquake.     

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Introduction According to many published papers, seismicity in time-space domain shows some characteristics, such as doughnut epicenter distribution (Mogi, 1969) or quiescence of seismic activity before large earthquakes (WANG, et al, 2002), and aftershock decay (Ogata, 1998). In recent years, more and more seismologists (Lynnr, Steven, 1990) have found that many strong earthquakes are preceded by enhancing regional seismicity and accelerating strain energy release (ZHANG, et al, 2001). T…     

On the Relationship Between the Crustal Strain Rate and Seismicity:Detect the Source-Field Relation from the Crustal Strain Field

The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories, obse     

A Preliminary Study on the Phenomenon of Microseismic Fluctuations before Impending Strong Earthquake

Based on repeated comparison studies of broadband digital seismic records before the Wenchuan M_S8. 0,Yushu M_S7. 1 and Qingchuan M_S5. 4 earthquakes,the possible microseismic fluctuations before impending earthquakes were preliminarily identified. In order to verify and test this phenomenon,a real-time tracking technical system was established by using continuous waveform records of more than 200 wide-band digital seismic stations in regional networks such as Gansu,Qinghai,Sichuan,Yunnan and Tibet.Through real-time tracking and dynamic monitoring of 24 earthquakes with M≥5. 0 occurring in the Qinghai-Tibetan block during the period of 2012-2014 and the observations of stations in some non-seismic areas,the reproducibility and objectivity of the impending earthquake phenomenon were verified. The main characteristics of the microseismic fluctuation phenomena immediately preceding the strong earthquakes are as follows:(1)the spectrum range is wider,the dominant frequency is 11-16 Hz,and the spectrum shape is more regular;(2)it appears 6-24 days before the earthquake,averaging about 15 days;(3)it is possible to be recorded by the stations within the epicenter distance of 50 km,and the stations with the epicenter distance of more than 50 km generally cannot record it;(4)this phenomenon is directional,i. e. the direction in which the activity degree,N-value,varies significantly may be related to the location of the seismic source,the seismogenic fault and the distribution of aftershocks of the strong earthquake. The preliminary study shows that the impending-earthquakes microseismic phenomena may be related to the pre-activity,micro-vibration and micro-rupture in the source region in the imminent stage,or the microactivity and micro-rupture associated with the active tectonics.     

Tectonic Interpretation of the Epicenter Distribution Map of China

The 1:6,000,000 Epicenter Distribution Map of China compiled by the Center for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,has given more than 100,000 epicenters of large and small earthquakes.The images composed of these dots contain plenty of information concerning the structures in the middle-upper crust.Using the so-called visual seismic line method,a tectonic interpretation of the epicenter distribution map of shallow focus earthquakes in China mainland is given in this paper,and the seismotectonic patterns and dynamic characteristics of the Tianshan,AIxa-Qilianshan and Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)seismic belts,the S-N central axis belt as well as Northeast China,North China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeast coastal areas are analyzed and interpreted.     

Rupture model of the 2013 M_W 6.6 Lushan (China) earthquake constrained by a new GPS data set and its effects on potential seismic hazard

Vertical records are critically important when determining the rupture model of an earthquake, especially a thrust earthquake. Due to the relatively low fitness level of near-field vertical displacements, the precision of previous rupture models is relatively low, and the seismic hazard evaluated thereafter should be further updated. In this study, we applied three-component displacement records from GPS stations in and around the source region of the 2013 MW6.6 Lushan earthquake to re-investigate the rupture model.To improve the resolution of the rupture model, records from both continuous and campaign GPS stations were gathered, and secular deformations of the GPS movements were removed from the records of the campaign stations to ensure their reliability. The rupture model was derived by the steepest descent method(SDM), which is based on a layered velocity structure. The peak slip value was about 0.75 m, with a seismic moment release of 9.89 × 10~(18) N·m, which was equivalent to an M_W6.6 event. The inferred fault geometry coincided well with the aftershock distribution of the Lushan earthquake. Unlike previous rupture models, a secondary slip asperity existed at a shallow depth and even touched the ground surface. Based on the distribution of the co-seismic ruptures of the Lushan and Wenchuan earthquakes, post-seismic relaxation of the Wenchuan earthquake, and tectonic loading process, we proposed that the seismic hazard is quite high and still needs special attention in the seismic gap between the two earthquakes.     

A Preliminary Discussion on the Mechanism of Abnormal Intensity Zones of the M5.1 Wen＇an Earthquake in 2006

An earthquake measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale struck Wen'an county,Hebei Province on July 4,2006. No casualties have been reported,with only slight damage. The disaster level of this event is the slightest on the M4.9～5.1 events record tally since the CCDSN (China Center of Digital Seismic Network) was built in 1999. The epicenter intensity of this earthquake was low,while in areas like Beijing,which is 100km far away,abnormal high intensity zones appeared. This article discusses the reasons behind this abnormal phenomenon,with the diagrams of intensity isolines drawn by the intense seismic stations and networks in the capital circle area as references,as well as the seismogenic mechanism in the source,the seismic histories,the geological structures and the ray pathways of seismic waves in areas within 150km around the epicenter. It was concluded that the special dynamic and geological situations were the main causes for the lower intensity degree and slight damage in the epicenter area,but higher intensity in the surrounding areas.     

Seismicity gap and seismic quiescence before 1999 Jiji(Chi-Chi) M_W7.6 earthquake

The September 21,1999,Jiji(Chi-Chi) MW7.6 earthquake is the strongest event occurred since 1900 in Taiwan of China.It is located in the middle segment of the western seismic zone of Taiwan.Based on several versions of China earthquake catalogue this study found that a seismic gap of M≥5 earthquakes appeared,in and around the epicenter region,24 years before and lasted up to the mainshock occurrence.This study also noticed that there existed a lager seismically quiet region of M≥4 earthquakes,which lasted for about 2.5 years before the mainshock occurrence.The spatial variation pattern of regional seismicity before the mainshock seems to match with its coseismic source rupture process.The mentioned seismicity gap and seismic quiescence might be an indication of the preparation process of the Jiji strong earthquake.     

Characteristics of Seismic Activity in a 3-Dimensional Space before the Wen'an Earthquake,Hebei Province by Relocation of Small Earthquakes in the China's Capital Area

Characteristics of seismic activity before the M5.1 earthquake in Wen'an,Hebei Province on July 4,2006 are analyzed by relocation of small earthquakes in the China's capital area,and some results are obtained as follows:① The seismic activity of M L ≥3.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt displayed a feature of strengthening (lasting 43 months) quiescence (17 months) five years before the Wen'an earthquake.Simultaneously,the strain release curve showed a variation process of accelerating-flatting.② A seismogenic gap in a three-dimensional space,located at the depth of 15km ～ 20km,with 70km long in latitude direction and 90km long in longitude orientation,was formed by M≥2.0 earthquakes four years prior to the Wen'an earthquake.The initial rupture point of the Wen'an earthquake is situated at the bottom of the gap.③ The focal depths of earthquakes with M L ≥2.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt gradually increased from 10km to 30km during the period from April,2003 to October,2004.Meanwhile,the seismic activity obviously strengthened in the middle and lower crust (from 20km to 30km in depth).     

北京五里营井流体前兆观测到的两次异常及讨论

In this paper, the precursor response characteristics of digital fluid caused by the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yushu M7.1 earthquakes are studied, and the response difference of the observations of Wuliying well to the two strong earthquakes is compared. The result shows that the abnormal fluid response has a certain relationship with earthquake size and epicenter distance. The greater the earthquake, and the closer it is to the epicenter from the observatory, the more sensitive the response will be to fluid anomalies. Abnormal Helium release was first observed before both strong earthquakes in the fluid precursor observation. The release intensity is related to earthquake magnitude; the larger the magnitude, the stronger the abnormal changes. The large change in He release in a short period after the Wenchuan earthquake may be related to the continuous activity of strong aftershocks and the structural adjustment after the earthquake. Helium release increased significantly after both earthquakes, as contributed by the abnormal deep-sited Helium release. However, this process may be connected to the annual change from July to September or the hot-reservoir type gas release in the Wuliying well. In the earthquake preparation process, a large number of deep-derived Helium is released into the geothermal system and the entire composition is changed. Temporally, this gas release appears later than fault-type gas release, and the disappearance time of this anomaly is also much later. The response difference of the fluid precursor to the two strong earthquakes may be related to differences of deep structural setting and dynamic mechanism. It also shows there is a stronger correlation between Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt and North China region than the Yushu M7.1 earthquake in the internal Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Helium gas can be a sensitive indicator for monitoring abnormal deep-gas activity of the region where the observation station is located. Hence, observation and research should be strengthened in the future.