利用多手段异常项次预报我国大震的模糊聚类方法

选用我国大陆１９６９－１９９１年发生的１１次Ｍｓ≥６．９地震作为样本，取地球物理、地球化学、地形变和地震活动性方面共计１２项手段的资料为判定指标，编制了模糊聚类计算机程序用以预报未来３个月、６个月和１２个月内发生大震的概率，并给出一个预报实例。     

35年来青藏高原大气热源气候特征及其与中国降水的关系

用１９６１～１９９５年青藏高原及其邻近地区１４８个地面站月平均资料计算了３５年的青藏高原大气热量源汇，并分析了它的气候特征及其和中国降水的关系．结果发现，平均而言，青藏高原大气热源最强在６月（为 ７８ Ｗ／ｍ２）９冷源最强在１２月份（为－７２ Ｗ／ｍ２）；地面感热在高原西南部明显增加，造成 ２月、 ３月份高原西南部热量源汇增加最明显，使得３月份在喜马拉雅山北坡形成热源中心．此后该中心继续加强，并且有两次明显的向西移动，分别出现在４月和６月；东部大气变为热源的时间以及热源最强出现的时间都要比西南部晚１个月．夏季凝结游热成为和感热同样重要的加热因子，也是使夏季东部热源继续增强的主要因子．在年代际变化尺度上，１９７７年前后高原大气热量源汇明显具有突变特征，其后大气热量源汇显著增加．青藏高原春季热源对于随后的夏季中国江淮地区、华南地区和华北地区的降水有比较好的指示意义，而高原夏季热源与同期长江流域降水存在着明显的正相关．     

全球主要地震区中源和深源大地震的18．6年轮回

分析全球中源和深源大地震与月球交点运动的关系，确定了１５个地区的中源和深源大地震有明显的１８．６ａ地震轮回。在这１５个地区中，除兴都库什地区外，其余地区的边界与俯冲带的分段性有密切关系。这一发现进一步证实了岩浆潮致上涌可调制地震活动的岩浆潮假设，并表明岩浆潮致上涌的影响范围在深部和浅部明显不同，中源和深源地震的发生很可能和岩浆上涌有关。     

地震前兆的象限性特征及其理论分析

在总结华北北部地区唐山、大同地震前地电阻率和形变前兆的象限性特征的基础上，分析并发现张北地震前的形变和地电阻率前兆也具有一定的象限性特征．说明前兆象限性的存在并非偶然，是与孕震体的存在有关．通过岩石实验与理论分析认为，在孕震过程中，前兆异常确实存在象限性特征．象限性的空间分布范围并不是固定不变，而是具有逐渐变大——最大——变小的过程．并且象限性的上升区与下降区（或压缩区与膨胀区）在近源区与远源区不同．如果基于对前兆象限性的认识，指导分析前兆异常不同形态异常的空间分布，对地震的可能发震地区预测将具有参考意义．      

18．6年地震轮回及其成因初探

将全球地震高发地区分成１３个研究区，分析各区浅源大地震（１８９７－１９９０年）与１８．６年月亮交点运动周期的关系，发现各区均有明显的１８．６ａ地震轮回存在：活跃期为１２．４ａ，平静期为６．２ａ．提出了软流层岩浆潮的概念，分析１８．６ａ地震轮回的成因是软流层岩浆潮的调制作用，并把这种解释称为岩浆潮假设．全球火山活动的１８．６ａ准周期性和各地震活跃期中心时间分布的规则性是对岩浆潮假设的支持．地震轮回可认为是全球或某一地区对地球内部和外部的非线性相互作用的响应或自组织过程．     

单斜辉石中氢的扩散:高温脱水实验研究

通过高温连续脱水实验,在９５０和８５０℃下,测定了女山的一个单斜辉石巨晶平行于［００１］~＊方向的氢扩散系数,分别为（６．５±土１．５）×１０~（－１２）和（１．８±０．７）×１０~（１２）ｍ~２／ｓ．碱性玄武岩中的幔源单斜辉石巨晶可能是研究上地幔中水的性质、演化和氢同位素特征的可靠样品。     

1996年10～12月的全球地震动态

１９９６年第四季度全球地震活动又上升为高水平，共发生４次７级以上地震，其中１１月１２日的秘鲁近海地震，震级已超过７．７级，日本九州海岸附近发生３次６￣７级地震，塞浦路斯和克什米尔接连发生７级以上地震，亚欧带地震进一步活跃，全球深源地震震级趋向降低。     

利用瑞利波法检测地基波速中的测点布置问题探讨

利用既有精确解和瑞利波近似解，分析了泊松比为0．30的匀质弹性地基在竖向点源简谐振动下地表质点振动相位及其求出的瑞利波随点一源距、测点间距而变化的规律．研究表明，当由面波法检测R波速度的容许误差一定时，最小点一源距将随测点间距的增大而减小，意味着目前常用做法缺乏理论的完备性．     

地球磁场对太阳风的加卸载响应与地震

将磁暴过程作为地球磁场对太阳风的加卸响应，计算分析了北京地磁台１９６５．１－１９７９．１２和１９８９．１－１９９１．１２共１８年垂直分量Ｚ的暴时场Ｄｓｔ加卸载响应比值ｆＤ（Ｚ）的变化。     

二维频率测深边界单元法正演计算

在二维层状介质中含有横向非均匀体的地电断面情况下，对电偶源的偶极长度作了延长，并选取了适当的基本解及无穷远边界条件，因而将相应的含源谐变电磁场的边值问题转化为较简单的边界积分方程．用边界单元法求出了相应的电磁场分量，进而计算阻抗视电阻率，并对这一算法作了相应的检验．     

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚地震海啸灾害考察

印度洋地震海啸的灾害是严重的。本文介绍了印度尼西亚在这次地震海啸中的灾害情况，包括建筑物的破坏、生命线工程的破坏等。最后提出了几点建议。     

Observations of pre-midnight 5-m irregularities in the equatorial F region over São Luís,Brazil: Solar-flux dependence and seasonal variations

The statistics of pre-midnight 5-m irregularities in the equatorial F region over São Luís is presented. The data set ranges from October 2001 to December 2008 and covers maximum solar-flux-to-minimum solar flux epoch. The variabilities in irregularity parameters, namely, height and time of their appearance in the radar echoes, with solar-flux variation are presented. The seasonal variations (combined over all years, irrespective of solar-flux) of occurrence of irregularities, occurrence of bottom-type layer (or bottom-side irregularities without plume) and bottom-side/topside plume (or bottom-side irregularities with plume) are presented. The largest occurrences of bottom-side irregularities without plume and with plume are found on April (equinox) and December (summer) months respectively. The ambient ionospheric conditions namely prereversal evening vertical drift, bottom-side density gradient and off-equatorial E region conductivity are inferred using digisonde measurements during April 2002 and December 2002. Based on these conditions and recent studies on gravity wave climatology over Brazil, it is suggested that shear in zonal plasma drift and low gravity wave activity may account for less occurrence of plume during April as compared to December months. This suggestion is quantified using numerical simulation model of collisional-interchange instability (CII) and plasma bubble.     

Correction of Hydrological and Oceanic Effects from GRACE Data by Combination of the Steric Sea Level,Altimetry Data and GLDAS Model

In this study, a scheme to estimate oceanic and hydrological effects in the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data is presented. The aim is to reveal tectonic signals for the case of the Sumatra earthquake on 26 December 2004. The variations of hydrological and oceanic effects are estimated with the aid of data set of GRACE, altimetry, World Ocean Atlas, and the GLDAS model for a period of January 2003 to December 2006. The time series of computed gravity changes over Sumatra region show some correlations to the deformation resulting from the earthquake occurred in December 2004. The maximum and minimum impacts of hydrological and oceanic effects on gravity changes are about 3 μGal in radial direction and–5 μGal in northward direction. The maximum and minimum amounts of gravitational gradient changes after the correction are 0.2 and–0.25 mE, which indicates the significant influences of hydrological and oceanic sources on the desired signal.     

The seismic catastrophe of December 26, 2004, in the Indian Ocean as a tsunamigenic earthquake in island arc structures

An interpretation of the occurrence conditions and source parameters is proposed for the catastrophic earthquake of December 26, 2004, in the northwestern part of the Sunda island arc. The interpretation is based on the analysis of spatial distributions of aftershock epicenters and regions subjected to destructive tsunamis, seismicity manifestations in the NW part of the Sunda island arc in the past century, and locations of large tsunami sources of historical earthquakes off the Sumatra Island coast. The source parameters of the December 26, 2004, earthquake are compared with the reliably established main characteristics of sources of the largest tsunamigenic earthquakes in island arcs of the Pacific Ocean. According to the proposed interpretation, the December 26, 2004, earthquake source is a steep reverse fault striking NW and dipping toward the Indian Ocean. The source, ～450 km long, is located in front of the NW termination of Sumatra Island, in the southern part of the Nicobar Islands. Possible positions and sizes of large potential seismic sources in the NW part of the Sunda island arc are suggested.     

An unusual zone of seismic coupling in the Bonin arc: The 1972 Hachijo-Oki earthquakes and related seismicity

The 1972 February and December Hachijo-Oki earthquakes (M _s=7.3 and 7.4), in the northernmost part of the Izu-Bonin subduction zone, are the only major events (M _s>7.0) in the Bonin arc for the past 80 years. Relocation of the hypocenters, using one smaller event having a wellconstrained focal depth as a master event, shows that the depth of the February event is 10 km shallower than that of the December event. We have determined the rupture process for both events by minimizing the error in waveform between observed and synthetic seismograms. Although the number of available stations are limited, the depth range of the major energy release for the December event extends deeper than for the February one. The rupture propagated up-dip for both events. It is likely that the rupture zone of the two events overlapped, and that the December event ruptured the deeper part. This suggestion is consistent with the observation that the aftershock zones of both events overlap with that of the December event shifted landward. The waveforms of the December event have a smaller high frequency component than those of the February event, suggesting that the stress at the thrust zone became more uniform or reduced after the February event.No thrust type smaller event occurred near the rupture zone. Instead, theP-axes of smaller events are parallel to the dip of the slab and theirT-axes dip to the southwest. Focal depths of these events estimated byP-wave forward modeling are generally between 40–50 km and located beneath the thrust zone. We thus interpret them as the events within the Pacific slab near the zone ruptured by the two major events. The stress concentration around the rupture zone of the major events is suggested to have triggered these slab events. After the occurrence of the large events, the slab events are concentrated near the deeper portion of the rupture zone. These events may have been caused by the loading of the down-dip compressional stress near the down-dip end of the rupture zone due to the rupture. The occurrence of the doublet of large earthquakes and a number of down-dip compressional events beneath their rupture zones in a shallow portion of the subducting slab indicates an unusual zone of seismic coupling in the Bonin arc, most of which is seismically quiescent.     

谢通门地震窗活动频次与强震对应关系

采用西藏测震台网记录的2008年1月—2018年12月谢通门区域定位地震,系统分析该区M_L1.5以上地震频度变化及与附近强震的对应关系,发现地震台站建设密度对谢通门地震窗监控能力影响较大,故从2008—2011年和2012年7月—2018年12月2个时段予以分析。分析发现,2012年7月开始,谢通门地震窗小震活动水平在每月20次范围内随机波动,当超过20次以上(含20次)即异常高值出现或结束后1.5年内,在半径100 km以内具有发生M_S 5.0以上地震的可能,在半径1 000 km以内具有发生M_S 6.5以上强震的可能。     

Local structures of electrons with energies of hundreds of keV in the inner belt and the slot region observed from the Vernov satellite

The structure and dynamics of electron fluxes of subrelativistic energies in the range 235–300 keV at L < 4 during December 3–8, 2014, are analyzed according to the RELEC instrument onboard the Vernov satellite. Sharp changes in the parameters of the solar wind and the IMF were detected on December 6, but they did not lead to a magnetic storm. However, after the event of December 6, subrelativistic electron fluxes in the inner belt and the slot region were enhanced and structured. The dynamics of electron fluxes in the local transient bursts at L ~ 1.5–1.7 is considered in detail. It is shown that these bursts are associated with the development of the cyclotron instability in the tops of magnetic flux tubes near the inner belt maximum. The electron anisotropic index is estimated in these bursts. It is shown that in the beginning these bursts are anisotropic and that they become isotropic as the decay proceeds. The most likely chain of physical mechanisms that could lead to variations in electron fluxes of the inner belt described in this paper is presented. For the first time, the topological effects in stationary distributions of the electrons of the inner belt observed at low altitudes in the South Atlantic Anomaly region are explained.     

Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Abstract

Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10–20 years.

Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150–1165.     

Local and Regional Ionospheric Disturbances During Meteorological Disturbances

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - Observations of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during meteorological disturbances in November–December 2010 are analyzed. It is shown that a sharp change...     

Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling

The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean.