Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030

There is currently intensive public discussion of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and other electric powertrains, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and hybridized combustion engine vehicles (HEV). In this context, the German government has set the target of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020, and six million by 2030 [1]. The goal of this paper is to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the German new car fleet in three scenarios in the timeframe from 2010 to 2030. The VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model is used to model the fleet in three scenarios. In the reference scenario with business-as-usual parameters, 189,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020. Scenario two with purchase price incentives from 5000 EUR, high oil prices, and low prices for hydrogen and electricity will result in 727,000 vehicles. In the last scenario with substantial OEM mark-up reductions and external conditions as in the business-as-usual scenario, 3.28 million vehicles will be sold.     

Primary energy efficiency of alternative powertrains in vehicles

This study considers the technical potential concerning the energy efficiency attainable for vehicles with alternative powertrains within 10–20 years. The potential for electric vehicles (BEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) is assessed and compared with the potential improvement in conventional vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEVs). Primary energy efficiency is the measure used in this study for comparison. The calculations of primary energy efficiency are based on three different resources: fossil fuels, biomass, and primary electricity from wind, solar or hydropower. This study shows that there is potential for doubling the primary energy efficiency using alternative powertrains in vehicles such as BEVs, HEVs and FCEVs, compared with existing ICEVs. All vehicles with an alternative powertrain have a higher potential for primary energy efficiency than vehicles with an improved conventional powertrain. No “winner” amongst the alternative powertrains could be identified from a primary energy efficiency point of view.     

Public perception related to a hydrogen hybrid internal combustion engine transit bus demonstration and hydrogen fuel

Hydrogen has been widely considered as a potentially viable alternative to fossil fuels for use in transportation. In addition to price competitiveness with fossil fuels, a key to its adoption will be public perceptions of hydrogen technologies and hydrogen fuel. This paper examines public perceptions of riders of a hydrogen hybrid internal combustion engine bus and hydrogen as a fuel source.     

Life cycle costing of diesel,natural gas,hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell bus systems: An Australian case study

The transit authority in Perth, Western Australia, has put several alternative fuel buses, including diesel-electric hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell buses, into revenue service over the years alongside conventional diesel and natural gas buses. Primary data from this fleet is used to construct a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) model, providing an empirical LCC result. The model is then used to forecast possible scenarios using cost estimates for next generation technologies. The methodology follows the Australian/New Zealand Standard for Life Cycle Costing, AS/NZS 4536:1999. The model outputs a dollar value in real terms that represents the LCC of each bus transportation technology. The study finds that Diesel buses deliver the lowest Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). The diesel-electric hybrid bus was found to have a TCO that is about 10% higher than conventional diesel. The premium to implement and operate a hydrogen bus, even if industry targets are attained, is still substantially greater than the TCO of a conventional diesel bus, unless a very large increase in the diesel fuel price occurs. However, the hybrid and hydrogen technologies are still very young in comparison to diesel and economies of scale are yet to be realised.     

Active fault tolerance control system of fuel cell hybrid city bus

With ever growing concerns on energy crises and environmental issues, Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell is favored in automotive applications because it is clean, efficient and low noise. A fuel cell hybrid powertrain is composed of a fuel cell system as the primary power source, a battery as the secondary power source and an electric motor. In order to improve the reliability, a distributed control system that can be preserved even under faulty cases is necessary. This paper presents an active fault tolerance control system (AFTCS) for a fuel cell/battery hybrid powertrain applied to a city bus. The AFTCS consists of a system for fault detection and diagnose and a reconfigurable controller. Algorithms to detect and isolated three kinds of important faults are introduced. The real-time applicable reconfigurable controller is exploited to recover the pre-fault system performance as much as possible. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed system.     

Bluetooth wireless monitoring,diagnosis and calibration interface for control system of fuel cell bus in Olympic demonstration

With the worldwide deterioration of the natural environment and the fossil fuel crisis, the possible commercialization of fuel cell vehicles has become a hot topic. In July 2008, Beijing started a clean public transportation plan for the 29th Olympic games. Three fuel cell city buses and 497 other low-emission vehicles are now serving the Olympic core area and Beijing urban areas. The fuel cell buses will operate along a fixed bus line for 1 year as a public demonstration of green energy vehicles. Due to the specialized nature of fuel cell engines and electrified power-train systems, measurement, monitoring and calibration devices are indispensable. Based on the latest Bluetooth wireless technology, a novel Bluetooth universal data interface was developed for the control system of the fuel cell city bus. On this platform, a series of wireless portable control auxiliary systems have been implemented, including wireless calibration, a monitoring system and an in-system programming platform, all of which are ensuring normal operation of the fuel cell buses used in the demonstration.     

Optimization of powerplant component size on board a fuel cell/battery hybrid bus for fuel economy and system durability

The size of the individual powerplant components on board a fuel cell/battery hybrid vehicle affects the power management strategy which determines both the fuel economy and the durability of the fuel cell and the battery, and thus the average lifetime cost of the vehicle. Cost is one of the major barriers to the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles, therefore it is important to study how the sizing configuration affects overall vehicle cost. In this paper, degradation models for the fuel cell and the battery on board a fuel cell/battery hybrid bus are incorporated into the power management system to extend their lifetimes. Different sizing configurations were studied and the results reveal that the optimal size with highest lifetime and lowest average cost is highly dependent on the drive cycle. The vehicle equipped with a small fuel cell stack serving as a range extender will fail earlier and consume more fuel under drive cycles with high average power demand resulting in higher overall cost. However, the same configuration gives optimal results under a standard bus cycle with lower average power demand. At the other end of the spectrum, a fuel cell-dominant bus does not guarantee longer lifetime since the fuel cell operates mostly under low-load conditions which correspond to higher potentials reducing lifetime. Such a configuration also incurs a higher initial capital cost of the fuel cell stack resulting in a high average cost. The best configuration is a battery-dominated system with moderately-sized fuel cell stack which achieves the longest lifetime combined with the lowest average running cost throughout the lifetime of the vehicle.     

Electric buses – An energy efficient urban transportation means

Bus transit systems with electric traction are an important contribution to the post fossil fuel mobility. Most renewable energy sources provide energy in the form of electricity. Electric motors thus have promise in the development of the way “beyond oil”. The reactivation of trolley bus systems – grid bounded but also catenary free for short distances – paves this way. The design of modern trolley bus operations overcomes the existing disadvantages of conventional buses using fossil fuel. Germany has an efficient industry in this field, that offers braking energy recuperation and energy storage in modern supercapacitors as well as technical and organisational innovations for a local emission free and a low noise transit system. Gentle but powerful when starting and braking, the trolley bus is cost effective and easy to integrate into an existing infrastructure. Such an electric bus system is ecological, customer-friendly and suitable for cities. It has a high economic efficiency and it also expands the traffic planning field towards an ecological future technology. This paper shows examples at home and abroad how electric buses achieve an energy solving modern urban traffic. It gives insights into technical developments of electric vehicle equipment, cateneries with fast driving handling characteristics and the use of plain electric and hybrid powertrains.     

Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios

Both fuel cell and electric vehicles have the potential to play a major role in a transformation towards a low carbon transport system that meets travel demands in a cleaner and more efficient way if hydrogen and electricity was produced in a sustainable manner. Cost reductions are central to this challenge, since these technologies are currently too expensive to compete with conventional vehicles based on fossil fuels. One important mechanism through which technology costs fall is learning-by-doing, the process by which cumulative global deployment leads to cost reduction. This paper develops long-term scenarios by implementing global technology learning endogenously in the TIAM-UCL global energy system model to analyse the role of hydrogen and electricity to decarbonise the transport sector. The analysis uses a multi-cluster global technology learning approach where key components (fuel cell, electric battery and electric drive train), to which learning is applied, are shared across different vehicle technologies such as hybrid, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and battery operated vehicles in cars, light goods vehicles and buses. The analysis shows that hydrogen and electricity can play a critical role to decarbonise the transport sector. They emerge as complementary transport fuels, rather than as strict competitors, in the short and medium term, with both deployed as fuels in all scenarios. However, in the very long-term when the transport sector has been almost completely decarbonised, technology competition between hydrogen and electricity does arise, in the sense that scenarios using more hydrogen in the transport sector use less electricity and vice versa.     

Inserting renewable fuels and technologies for transport in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This article describes three future scenarios for the potential reduction of CO₂ emissions and associated costs when biogenic ethanol blends and oxygenates are substituted for gasoline, and hybrid, flex fuel and fuel cell technologies are introduced in passenger automobiles (including pickups and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs)) in the densely populated Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), analyzed up to the year 2030. A reference (REF) scenario is constructed in which most automobiles are driven by internal combustion engines (ICE) fuelled by gasoline. In the first alternative scenario (ALT1), hybrid electric-ICE gasoline-fuelled cars are introduced in 2006. In the same year, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) is introduced as a replacement for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) oxygenate for gasoline. In the second alternative scenario (ALT2), in addition to the changes introduced in ALT1, flex fuel ICE technology fuelled by E85 is introduced in 2008 and electric motor vehicles driven by direct ethanol fuel cells (DEFC) fuelled by E100 in 2013. A comparison between the reference and alternate scenarios shows that while the total number of vehicles is the same in each scenario, energy consumption decreases by 9% (ALT1) and 17% (ALT2), the total non-biogenic CO₂ emissions drop by 15% (ALT1) and 34% (ALT2), CO₂ mitigation cost is 140.14 $US1997/ton CO₂ (ALT2), and ALT1 has savings and is considered a “no regrets” scenario.     

Transition strategy of the transportation energy and powertrain in China

The problems of the transportation energy and environment are the major challenges faced globally in the 21st century and are especially serious for China. The future 20 years is the strategic opportunity period of the transition of the transportation energy and powertrain system for China. The greatest characteristics of hydrogen economy lie in its diversity of the primary energy source, the unification of energy carrier and the greening of energy transformation. Development of hydrogen energy transportation powertrain system is suitable for China from the views of the situation of Chinese resources and energy sources, the urban and rural layouts, the superiority of later development and the successful practices of clean cars and electric vehicle development projects. The transition of the transportation energy powertrain system includes three parts: the transition of the energy structure, the transition of the powertrain system and the transition of the fuel infrastructure. The technical pathways of energy powertrain system transition includes expending the use of gaseous fuel to prompt the multiform of the transportation energy and to prepare for the transition of the infrastructure simultaneously, developing and promoting the hybrid technology to solve the current energy and environment problems and to prepare for the transition of powertrain system, and focusing on the research and development and demonstration of fuel cell vehicles and the hydrogen energy technology to prompt the earlier formation of the market of fuel cell vehicles. The goal in the near and medium term of transition is to reduce the fuel consumption by 100 million ton in 2020 by substituting and saving, and the long-term goal is to setup the infrastructure of hydrogen and fuel cell vehicle as the main one replacing the petroleum internal combustion engine vehicle. In order to realize the strategic goals of the transition, the four-phases strategic periods and research and development activities are discussed and proposed.     

Energy management strategy based on fuzzy logic for a fuel cell hybrid bus

Fuel cell vehicles, as a substitute for internal-combustion-engine vehicles, have become a research hotspot for most automobile manufacturers all over the world. Fuel cell systems have disadvantages, such as high cost, slow response and no regenerative energy recovery during braking; hybridization can be a solution to these drawbacks. This paper presents a fuel cell hybrid bus which is equipped with a fuel cell system and two energy storage devices, i.e., a battery and an ultracapacitor. An energy management strategy based on fuzzy logic, which is employed to control the power flow of the vehicular power train, is described. This strategy is capable of determining the desired output power of the fuel cell system, battery and ultracapacitor according to the propulsion power and recuperated braking power. Some tests to verify the strategy were developed, and the results of the tests show the effectiveness of the proposed energy management strategy and the good performance of the fuel cell hybrid bus.     

A cost-benefit analysis of alternatively fueled buses with special considerations for V2G technology

Motivated by climate, health and economic considerations, alternatively-fueled bus fleets have emerged worldwide. Two popular alternatives are compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric vehicles. The latter provides the opportunity to generate revenue through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services if properly equipped. This analysis conducts a robust accounting of the costs of diesel, CNG and battery-electric powertrains for school buses. Both marginal and fleet-wide scenarios are explored. Results indicate that the marginal addition of neither a small CNG nor a small V2G-enabled electric bus is cost effective at current prices. Contrary to previous findings, a small V2G-enabled electric bus increases net present costs by $7,200/seat relative to diesel for a Philadelphia, PA school district. A small CNG bus increases costs by $1,200/seat relative to diesel. This analysis is the first to quantify and include the economic implications of cold temperature extremes on electric vehicle battery operations, and the lower V2G revenues that result. Additional costs and limitations imposed by electric vehicles performing V2G are frequently overlooked in the literature and are explored here. If a variety of technical, legal, and economic challenges are overcome, a future eBus may be economical.     

The role of hydrogen in the road transportation sector for a sustainable energy system: A case study of Korea

This study analyzes the impact of the introduction of hydrogen as fuel in the road transportation sector of Korea. Since this sector is completely dependent on petroleum and alternative technologies such as fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen is one alternative fuel that could meet the challenges that Korea is facing due to rising oil prices. This study uses a scenarios-based energy economic model including the hydrogen path way as a sub-energy system to explore the energy system of Korea through 2044. This study also constructs six scenarios consisting of three government policies concerning carbon dioxide reduction and two oil price scenarios in order to assess the impact on hydrogen as fuel in the road transportation sector. The results of this study show that in a particular case (high Btu tax and oil prices) the share of hydrogen would reach 76% of the road transportation sector, and hydrogen would be produced mainly from renewable and nuclear resources via electrolysis facilities. It is also revealed that hydrogen is effective at reducing carbon dioxide, improving energy efficiency and contributing to the energy security of Korea.     

Comparative analysis of battery electric,hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system

This paper compares battery electric vehicles (BEV) to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) and hydrogen fuel cell plug-in hybrid vehicles (FCHEV). Qualitative comparisons of technologies and infrastructural requirements, and quantitative comparisons of the lifecycle cost of the powertrain over 100,000 mile are undertaken, accounting for capital and fuel costs. A common vehicle platform is assumed. The 2030 scenario is discussed and compared to a conventional gasoline-fuelled internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis shows that in 2030 FCEVs could achieve lifecycle cost parity with conventional gasoline vehicles. However, both the BEV and FCHEV have significantly lower lifecycle costs. In the 2030 scenario, powertrain lifecycle costs of FCEVs range from $7360 to $22,580, whereas those for BEVs range from $6460 to $11,420 and FCHEVs, from $4310 to $12,540. All vehicle platforms exhibit significant cost sensitivity to powertrain capital cost. The BEV and FCHEV are relatively insensitive to electricity costs but the FCHEV and FCV are sensitive to hydrogen cost. The BEV and FCHEV are reasonably similar in lifecycle cost and one may offer an advantage over the other depending on driving patterns. A key conclusion is that the best path for future development of FCEVs is the FCHEV.     

Performance and cost of fuel cells for off-road heavy-duty vehicles

Replacing hydrocarbon-powered off-road vehicles with hydrogen fuel cell-powered off-road vehicles can reduce carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant emissions in the agriculture, construction, and mining industries. Off-road vehicles perform challenging work in harsh environments that complicate deployment of their fuel cell-powered counterparts. Customers and vehicle manufacturers recognize the health and environmental benefits of emissions reductions but are compelled by the total cost of ownership of their vehicles. This study provides a novel technoeconomic comparison of hydrogen fuel cell + battery hybrid powertrains to traditional diesel powertrains for three hallmark off-road vehicles: tractors, wheel loaders, and excavators. Performance metrics include fuel cell engine power, hydrogen consumption rate, hydrogen storage system volume, energy-regenerative drivetrain efficiency, cost of capital, operating and maintenance cost, fuel cost, and fuel storage cost. Results demonstrate that state-of-the-art fuel cell-powered wheel loaders and excavators are currently cost competitive with diesel platforms by total cost of ownership: compact wheel loaders are 19% less expensive, large wheel loaders are equally expensive, mini/compact excavators are 11% more expensive, and standard/full excavators are 9% less expensive. If targeted improvements to cost, performance, and durability of fuel cell stacks and storage systems are achieved, fuel cell systems would be cost competitive for tractors and significantly lower total cost of ownership options for wheel loaders and excavators. This study also elucidates the relationship between performance, cost, and vehicle duty cycle and provides guidance for optimal deployment of fuel cell off-road vehicles.     

Potential impacts assessment of plug-in electric vehicles on the Portuguese energy market

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20 cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off-peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6 cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9€ to 3.2€ per 100 km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO₂ emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off-peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs.     

Coproduction of district heat and electricity or biomotor fuels

The operation of a district heating system depends on the heat load demand, which varies throughout the year. In this paper, we analyze the coproduction of district heat and electricity or biomotor fuels. We demonstrate how three different taxation scenarios and two crude oil price levels influence the selection of production units to minimize the district heat production cost and calculate the resulting primary energy use. Our analysis is based on the annual measured heat load of a district heating system. The minimum-cost district heat production system comprises different production units that meet the district heat demand and simultaneously minimize the district heat production cost. First, we optimize the cost of a district heat production system based on the cogeneration of electricity and heat with and without biomass integrated gasification combined-cycle technology. We considered cogenerated electricity as a byproduct with the value of that produced by a condensing power plant. Next, we integrate and optimize different biomotor fuel production units into the district heat production system by considering biomotor fuels as byproducts that can substitute for fossil motor fuels. We demonstrate that in district heating systems, the strengthening of environmental taxation reduces the dependence on fossil fuels. However, increases in environmental taxation and the crude oil price do not necessarily influence the production cost of district heat as long as biomass price is not driven by policy measures. Biomotor fuel production in a district heating system is typically not cost-efficient. The biomotor fuels produced from the district heating system have to compete with those from standalone biomotor fuel plants and also with its fossil-based counterparts. This is also true for high oil prices. A carbon tax on fossil CO₂ emissions based on social cost damage will increase the competitiveness of biomass-based combined heat and power plants, especially for BIGCC technology with its high electricity-to-heat ratio.     

A comparison of high-speed flywheels, batteries, and ultracapacitors on the bases of cost and fuel economy as the energy storage system in a fuel cell based hybrid electric vehicle

Fuel cells aboard hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are often hybridized with an energy storage system (ESS). Batteries and ultracapacitors are the most common technologies used in ESSs aboard HEVs. High-speed flywheels are an emerging technology with traits that have the potential to make them competitive with more established battery and ultracapacitor technologies in certain vehicular applications. This study compares high-speed flywheels, ultracapacitors, and batteries functioning as the ESS in a fuel cell based HEV on the bases of cost and fuel economy. In this study, computer models were built to simulate the powertrain of a fuel cell based HEV where high-speed flywheels, batteries, and ultracapacitors of a range of sizes were used as the ESS. A simulated vehicle with a powertrain using each of these technologies was run over two different drive cycles in order to see how the different ESSs performed under different driving patterns. The results showed that when cost and fuel economy were both considered, high-speed flywheels were competitive with batteries and ultracapacitors.