Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.     

Potential impacts assessment of plug-in electric vehicles on the Portuguese energy market

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20 cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off-peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6 cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9€ to 3.2€ per 100 km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO₂ emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off-peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs.     

The feasibility of long range battery electric cars in New Zealand

New Zealand transport accounts for over 40% of the carbon emissions with private cars accounting for 25%. In the Ministry of Economic Development's recently released “New Zealand Energy Strategy to 2050”, it proposed the wide scale deployment of electric vehicles as a means of reducing carbon emissions from transport. However, New Zealand's lack of public transport infrastructure and its subsequent reliance on private car use for longer journeys could mean that many existing battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will not have the performance to replace conventionally fuelled cars.As such, this paper discusses the potential for BEVs in New Zealand, with particular reference to the development of the University of Waikato's long-range UltraCommuter BEV. It is shown that to achieve a long range at higher speeds, BEVs should be designed specifically rather than retrofitting existing vehicles to electric. Furthermore, the electrical energy supply for a mixed fleet of 2 million BEVs is discussed and conservatively calculated, along with the number of wind turbines to achieve this. The results show that approximately 1350 MW of wind turbines would be needed to supply the mixed fleet of 2 million BEVs, or 54% of the energy produced from NZ's planned and installed wind farms.     

Electric vehicles in imperfect electricity markets: The case of Germany

We use a game-theoretic model to analyze the impacts of a hypothetical fleet of plug-in electric vehicles on the imperfectly competitive German electricity market. Electric vehicles bring both additional demand and additional storage capacity to the market. We determine the effects on prices, welfare, and electricity generation for various cases with different players in charge of vehicle operations. Vehicle loading increases generator profits, but decreases consumer surplus in the power market. If excess vehicle batteries can be used for storage, welfare results are reversed: generating firms suffer from the price-smoothing effect of additional storage, whereas power consumers benefit despite increasing overall demand. Strategic players tend to under-utilize the storage capacity of the vehicle fleet, which may have negative welfare implications. In contrast, we find a market power-mitigating effect of electric vehicle recharging on oligopolistic generators. Overall, electric vehicles are unlikely to be a relevant source of market power in Germany in the foreseeable future.     

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.     

The role of hydrogen cars in the economy of California

Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative transportation fuel that could reduce energy consumption and eliminate tailpipe emissions when used in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). To investigate the potential effects of hydrogen vehicles on California’s economy over the next two decades, we employed the modified Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model and a California-specific computable general equilibrium model. Results indicate that, even in the aggressive scenario, hydrogen cars can only account for a minor fraction of the on-road fleet through 2030. Although new sales could drop sharply, conventional gasoline cars and carryover pre-2010 vehicles are still expected to dominate the on-road vehicle stock and consume the majority of transportation energy through 2030. Transportation energy consumption could decline dramatically, mainly because of the fuel economy advantage of FCVs over conventional cars. Both moderate and aggressive hydrogen scenarios are estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California’s economy. However, the negative economic impacts could be lessened as the market for hydrogen and FCVs builds up. Based on the economic optimization model, both hydrogen scenarios would have a negative economic impact on California’s oil refining sector and, as expected, a positive impact on the other directly related sectors that contribute to either hydrogen production or FCV manufacturing.     

Electrification of the Canadian road transportation sector: A 2050 outlook with TIMES-Canada

We use a newly developed bottom-up model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess potentials for electrification of the road transport sector. A special emphasis has been put on the modelling of the Canadian road transport, by considering a variety of vehicles for passenger and freight transportation. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have analysed an energy policy scenario imposing targets for electric vehicle penetration and a climate policy scenario imposing targets for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Our analysis shows on the one hand that electric vehicles penetrate notably the passenger vehicle market after 2040 in the baseline scenario and after 2030 in the energy policy scenario (following the assumed penetration targets). On the other hand, the assumed climate policy forces a stronger penetration of electric vehicles for passenger transportation, with a progressive phasing out of internal combustion engine vehicles, whereas the latter vehicles remain dominant for freight transportation but with a shift away of fossil fuels and in favour of biofuels. A sensitivity analysis on the (assumed) evolution of electric vehicles over time confirms these general trends.     

Emissions impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle deployment on the U.S. western grid

The constantly evolving western grid of the United States is characterized by complex generation dispatch based on economics, contractual agreements, and regulations. The future electrification of transportation via plug-in electric vehicles calls for an energy and emissions analysis of electric vehicle (EV) penetration scenarios based on realistic resource dispatch. A resource dispatch and emissions model for the western grid is developed and a baseline case is modeled. Results are compared with recorded data to validate the model and provide confidence in the analysis of EV-grid interaction outlooks. A modeled dispatch approach, based on a correlation between actual historical dispatch and system load data, is exercised to show the impacts (emission intensity, temporally resolved load demand) associated with EV penetration on the western grid. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and selected charging scenarios are the focus for the analysis. The results reveal that (1) a correlation between system load and resource group capacity factor can be utilized in dispatch modeling, (2) the hourly emissions intensity of the grid depends upon PHEV fleet charge scenario, (3) emissions can be reduced for some species depending on the PHEV fleet charge scenario, and (4) the hourly model resolution of changes in grid emissions intensity can be used to decide on preferred fleet-wide charge profiles.     

Life cycle cost analysis of a car,a city bus and an intercity bus powertrain for year 2005 and 2020

The international economy, in the beginning of the 20th century, is characterized by uncertainty about the supply and the price of oil. Together with the fast decrease of electrical propulsion component prices, it becomes more and more cost effective to develop vehicles with alternative powertrains. This paper focuses on two questions: Are alternative powertrains especially cost effective for specific applications?; How does an increased fossil fuel price influences the choose of powertrain? To assess these questions, a computer tool named THEPS, developed in a Ph.D. project, is used. Three applications and three scenarios are analysed. The applications, a car, a city bus and an intercity bus, are vehicles all assumed to operate in Sweden. One scenario represents year 2005, the other two year 2020. The two future scenarios are characterized by different fossil fuel prices. The study, presented in the paper, indicates that alternative powertrains can be competitive from a cost perspective, in some applications, already in year 2005. It is for example cost effective to equip a city bus, running in countries with a high fuel price, with a hybrid powertrain. The study also indicates that pure electric, hybrid and/or fuel cell cars will probably be a more cost effective choice than conventional cars in year 2020. Another indication is that it will not be clear which powertrain concept to choose. The reason is that many cost effective powertrain concepts will be offered. The best choice will depend on the application.     

Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change

This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20–25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008–2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65–75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85–95 MW in 2030.     

Examining fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles

This paper examines fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks), discussing the rationale for standards, appropriate degrees of stringency and timing, regulatory structure, and ways to deal with “real world” fuel economy issues that may not be dealt with by the standards. There is no optimum method of establishing the stringency of a standard, but policymakers can be informed by analyses of technology cost-effectiveness from the viewpoint of different actors (e.g., society, vehicle purchasers) and of “top runners”—vehicles in the current fleet, or projections of future leading vehicles, that can serve as models for average vehicles some years later. The focus of the paper is on the US light vehicle fleet, with some discussion of applications to the European Union. A “leading edge” midsize car for the 2020 timeframe is identified, and various types of attribute-based standards are discussed. For the US, a 12–15 year target for new vehicle fleet improvement of 30–50% seems a reasonable starting point for negotiations. For 2030 or so, doubling current fuel economy is possible. In both cases, adjustments must be made in response to changing economic circumstances and government and societal priorities.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Optimal charging of electric drive vehicles in a market environment

With a potential to facilitate the integration of renewable energy into the electricity system, electric drive vehicles may offer a considerable flexibility by allowing for charging and discharging when desired. This paper takes the perspective of an aggregator that manages the electricity market participation of a vehicle fleet and presents a framework for optimizing charging and discharging of the electric drive vehicles, given the driving patterns of the fleet and the variations in market prices of electricity. When the aggregator is a price-taker the optimization can be stated in terms of linear programming whereas a quadratic programming formulation is required when he/she has market power. A Danish case study illustrates the construction of representative driving patterns through clustering of survey data from Western Denmark and the prediction of electricity price variations through regression on prices from the Nordic market. The results show that electric vehicles provide flexibility almost exclusively through charging. Moreover, the vehicles provide flexibility within the day but only limited flexibility from day to day when driving patterns are fixed.     

我国混合动力汽车经济激励政策的效果分析

本文在了解国外工业发达国家针对新能源汽车出台的经济激励政策的基础上,归纳了我国已出台的补贴政策。立足于国内新能源汽车产业处于起步阶段的实情,综合运用情景分析法、回归模型以及面板固定效应模型对预处理后的4个主要试点城市混合动力汽车市场份额数据进行定量分析,旨在预估一系列补贴政策未来可能产生的效果。在文中设定的4种情景下,中国混合动力汽车经济激励措施的效果都是显著的,值得继续推行。     

The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in German metropolitan areas: A spatial general equilibrium analysis

E-mobility and diffusion of electric vehicles have become a major policy issue in many countries. For example, the German federal government pursues the strategy of achieving one million electric vehicles by 2020. In this paper we examine whether it is optimal to subsidize the use of electric vehicles by granting electric power subsidies and how large the corresponding optimal rate is. We, first, analytically derive the optimal power tax in a spatial model of a city with two zones where commuting, carbon emissions, endogenous labor supply, fuel and power taxes are considered. It is shown that in a spatial urban environment, the optimal tax rate depends in particular on transport related externalities, tax interaction effects and redistribution effects working via the urban land market. Second, we extend the model to a full spatial general equilibrium model and employ simulations to calculate sign and size of the optimal tax/subsidy rate. This model is calibrated to a typical German metropolitan area. The results show that electric vehicles should not be subsidized but taxed. The results are robust with respect to changes in the willingness to adopt electric vehicles, the costs of driving electric vehicles, and even if emissions of electric vehicles are zero.     

Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO₂ emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO₂ mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO₂ emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO₂ will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO₂ emission as early as possible.     

Assessing the impact of policy interventions on the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles: An agent-based model

Heightened concern regarding climate change and energy independence has increased interest in plug-in electric vehicles as one means to address these challenges and governments at all levels have considered policy interventions to encourage their adoption. This paper develops an agent-based model that simulates the introduction of four policy scenarios aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption in an urban community and compares them against a baseline. These scenarios include reducing vehicle purchase price via subsidies, expanding the local public charging network, increasing the number and visibility of fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) on the roadway through government fleet purchases, and a hybrid mix of these three approaches. The results point to the effectiveness of policy options that increased awareness of BEV technology. Specifically, the hybrid policy alternative was the most successful in encouraging BEV adoption. This policy increases the visibility and familiarity of BEV technology in the community and may help counter the idea that BEVs are not a viable alternative to gasoline-powered vehicles.     

The impact of fuel cell vehicle deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions: The China case

Considerable attention has been paid to energy security and climate problems caused by road vehicle fleets. Fuel cell vehicles provide a new solution for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from heavy-duty trucks. Although cost may become the key issue in fuel cell vehicle development, with technological improvements and cleaner pathways for hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles will exhibit great potential of cost reduction. In accordance with the industrial plan in China, this study introduces five scenarios to evaluate the impact of fuel cell vehicles on the road vehicle fleet greenhouse gas emissions in China. Under the most optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas emissions generated by the whole fleet will decrease by 13.9% compared with the emissions in a scenario with no fuel cell vehicles, and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen production will play an essential role when fuel cell vehicles' fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions are calculated; therefore, hydrogen production pathways will be critical in the future.     

Hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle performance testing by the US Department of Energy Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity

The Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), part of the U.S. Department of Energy's FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program, has conducted testing of advanced technology vehicles since August 1995 in support of the AVTA goal to provide benchmark data for technology modeling, and vehicle development programs. The AVTA has tested full size electric vehicles, urban electric vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles, and hydrogen internal combustion engine powered vehicles. Currently, the AVTA is conducting baseline performance, battery benchmark and fleet tests of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV). Testing has included all HEVs produced by major automotive manufacturers and spans over 2.5 million test miles. Testing is currently incorporating PHEVs from four different vehicle converters. The results of all testing are posted on the AVTA web page maintained by the Idaho National Laboratory.     

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a way to maximize the integration of variable renewable energy in power systems: The case of wind generation in northeastern Brazil

Several studies have proposed different tools for analyzing the integration of variable renewable energy into power grids. This study applies an optimization tool to model the expansion of the electric power system in northeastern Brazil, enabling the most efficient dispatch of the variable output of the wind farms that will be built in the region over the next 20 years. The expected combined expansion of wind generation with conventional inflexible generation facilities, such as nuclear plants and run-of-the-river hydropower plants, poses risks of future mismatch between supply and demand in northeastern Brazil. Therefore, this article evaluates the possibility of using a fleet of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) to regularize possible energy imbalances. Findings indicate that a dedicated fleet of 500 thousand PHEVs in 2015, and a further 1.5 million in 2030, could be recharged overnight to take advantage of the surplus power generated by wind farms. To avoid the initial costs of smart grids, this article suggests, as a first step, the use of a governmental PHEV fleet that allows fleet managers to control battery charging times. Finally, the study demonstrates the advantages of optimizing simultaneously the power and transport sectors to test the strategy suggested here.