Climate change impacts on native cutthroat trout habitat in Colorado streams

Headwater streams support vital aquatic habitat yet are vulnerable to changing climate due to their high elevation and small size. Coldwater fish are especially sensitive to the altered streamflow and water temperature regimes during summer low flow periods. Though previous studies have provided insights on how changes in climate and alterations in stream discharge may affect habitat availability for various native cutthroat trout species, suitable physical habitats have not been evaluated under future climate projections for the threatened Greenback Cutthroat Trout (GBCT) native to headwater regions of Colorado, USA. Thus, this study used field data collected from selected headwater streams across the current distribution of GBCT to construct one-dimensional hydraulic models to evaluate streamflow and physical habitat under four future climate projections. Results illustrate reductions in both predicted streamflow and physical habitat for all future climate projections across study sites. The projected mean summer streamflow shows greater decline (−52% on average) compared to the projected decline in mean August flow (−21% on average). Moreover, sites located at a relative higher elevation with larger substrate and steeper slope were projected to experience more reductions in physical habitat due to streamflow reductions. Specifically, streams with step-pool morphologies may experience grater changes in available habitat compared to pool-riffle streams. Future climate change studies related to coldwater fish that examine spatial variation in flow alteration could provide novel data to complement the existing literature on the thermal characteristics. Tailoring reintroduction and management efforts for GBCT to the individual headwater stream with adequate on-site monitoring could provide a more holistic conservation approach.     

Spatially variable effects of streamflow on water temperature and thermal sensitivity within a salmon-bearing watershed in interior British Columbia,Canada

Warming temperatures can have negative consequences for aquatic organisms, especially cold-adapted fishes such as Pacific salmon. The magnitude of warming is related to the thermal sensitivity of streams in salmon-bearing watersheds (i.e., change in stream temperature for every 1°C increase in air temperature), which can vary based on several factors including streamflow. Management actions to increase streamflow may therefore benefit salmon by decreasing thermal sensitivity. However, the effects of streamflow on thermal sensitivity are often complex, as the temperature of flow inputs can directly increase or decrease temperatures. This study aimed to disentangle the influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity and stream temperature over 4 years in the Nicola River, a regulated semiarid watershed in south-central British Columbia, Canada. A statistical modeling approach was used to estimate streamflow effects on stream temperatures and thermal sensitivity (i.e., relationship of regional air temperature to stream temperature) at 12 sites from 2018 to 2021. Streamflow had a variable influence on stream temperatures across the watershed via both direct effects and by modulating thermal sensitivity. At a given site, streamflow was generally negatively associated with summer daily mean stream temperature, but the magnitude of its influence varied among locations and years. The influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity was also highly variable both spatially and temporally. The analysis suggests that there may be complex relationships between streamflow, stream temperature, and thermal sensitivity, which complicates the efficacy of flow as a lever to mitigate high temperatures in regulated systems.     

Impacts of Climate Change and Seasonal Variability on Economic Treatment Costs: A Case Study of the Nitra River Basin,Slovakia

Analysis of climate change impacts upon water resources has focused prim arily on water quantity issues. The impacts upon water qu ality and water quality management have had little attention. This paper presents a framework for assessing climate change impacts upon stream water quality and the management costs associated with adaptation to the new hydroclim atic conditions resulting in changes in streamflow and stream temperature. W ater quality indicators as well as chemical and biological processes important to water quality are a fu nction of stream temperature. This paper reports not on ly on how water quality indices will be im pacted by alternative climate change scenarios, but on the econom ic cost of maintaining water quality stan dards. The costs of maintaining water quality standards result from increased treatm ent of waste loads due to decreased waste assimilation capacity of warmer streams. A case study based on regionally developed climate change scenarios shows that water quality levels are greatly impacted in the low flow periods (by as m uch as 14 times), while average annual conditions are n ot impacted significantly.     

Hydrologic impacts of small‐scale instream diversions for frost and heat protection in the California wine country

Though many river studies have documented the impacts of large water projects on stream hydrology, few have described the effects of dispersed, small‐scale water projects on streamflow or aquatic ecosystems. We used streamflow and air temperature data collected in the northern California wine country to characterize the influence of small instream diversions on streamflow. On cold spring mornings when air temperatures approached 0°C, flow in streams draining catchments with upstream vineyards receded abruptly, by as much as 95% over hours, corresponding to times when water is used to protect grape buds from freezing; flow rose to near previous levels following periods of water need. Streams with no upstream vineyards showed no such changes in flow. Flow was also depressed in reaches below vineyards on hot summer days, when grape growers commonly use water for heat protection. Our results demonstrate that the changes in flow caused by dispersed small instream diversions may be brief in duration, requiring continuous short‐interval monitoring to adequately describe how such diversions affect the flow regime. Depending on the timing and abundance of such diversions in a drainage network, the changes in streamflow they cause may be an important limiting factor to valued biotic resources throughout the region. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY CONDITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERITY OF STREAMFLOW ALTERATION

Natural streamflows play a critical role in stream ecosystems, yet quantitative relations between streamflow alteration and stream health have been elusive. One reason for this difficulty is that neither streamflow alteration nor ecological responses are measured relative to their natural expectations. We assessed macroinvertebrate community condition in 25 mountain streams representing a large gradient of streamflow alteration, which we quantified as the departure of observed flows from natural expectations. Observed flows were obtained from US Geological Survey streamgaging stations and discharge records from dams and diversion structures. During low‐flow conditions in September, samples of macroinvertebrate communities were collected at each site, in addition to measures of physical habitat, water chemistry and organic matter. In general, streamflows were artificially high during summer and artificially low throughout the rest of the year. Biological condition, as measured by richness of sensitive taxa (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera) and taxonomic completeness (O/E), was strongly and negatively related to the severity of depleted flows in winter. Analyses of macroinvertebrate traits suggest that taxa losses may have been caused by thermal modification associated with streamflow alteration. Our study yielded quantitative relations between the severity of streamflow alteration and the degree of biological impairment and suggests that water management that reduces streamflows during winter months is likely to have negative effects on downstream benthic communities in Utah mountain streams. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

An Evaluation of the Relations Between Flow Regime Components,Stream Characteristics,Species Traits,and Meta‐Demographic Rates of Warm‐Water‐Stream Fishes: Implications for Aquatic Resource Management

Fishery biologists are increasingly recognizing the importance of considering the dynamic nature of streams when developing streamflow policies. Such approaches require information on how flow regimes influence the physical environment and how those factors, in turn, affect species‐specific demographic rates. A more cost‐effective alternative could be the use of dynamic occupancy models to predict how species are likely to respond to changes in flow. To appraise the efficacy of this approach, we evaluated relative support for hypothesized effects of seasonal streamflow components, stream channel characteristics, and fish species traits on local extinction, colonization, and recruitment (meta‐demographic rates) of stream fishes. We used 4 years of seasonal fish collection data from 23 streams to fit multistate, multiseason occupancy models for 42 fish species in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. Modelling results suggested that meta‐demographic rates were influenced by streamflows, particularly short‐term (10‐day) flows. Flow effects on meta‐demographic rates also varied with stream size, channel morphology, and fish species traits. Small‐bodied species with generalized life‐history characteristics were more resilient to flow variability than large‐bodied species with specialized life‐history characteristics. Using this approach, we simplified the modelling framework, thereby facilitating the development of dynamic, spatially explicit evaluations of the ecological consequences of water resource development activities over broad geographic areas. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin,British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple,Interacting Stressors

Surface water is critical for meeting water needs in British Columbia’s Okanagan Basin, but the timing and magnitude of its availability is being altered through climate and land use changes and growing water demand. Greater attention needs to be given to the multiple, interacting factors occurring and projected to occur in this region if water is going to be sustainably provisioned to human users and available for ecosystem needs. This study contributes to that goal by integrating information on physical, biological and social processes in order to project a range of possible changes to surface water availability resulting from land-use, climatic and demographic change, as well as from Mountain Pine Beetle infestation. An integrated water management model (Water Evaluation and Planning system, WEAP) was used to consider future scenarios for water supply and demand in both unregulated and reservoir-supported streams that supply the District of Peachland. Results demonstrate that anticipated future climate conditions will critically reduce streamflow relative to projected uses (societal demand and ecological flow requirements). The surficial storage systems currently in place were found unable to meet municipal and instream flow needs during “normal” precipitation years by the 2050s. Improvements may be found through demand reduction, especially in the near term. Beyond the implications for the District of Peachland, this work demonstrates a method of using an accessible modeling tool for integrating knowledge from the fields of climate science, forest hydrology, water systems management and stream ecology to aid in water and land management decision-making.     

A comprehensive index for stream depletion in coupled human-water systems

Intensive land use and land cover (LULC) change along with the gradually increasing effects of climate change have made streams both hydrologically and ecologically vulnerable to depletion. Since stream depletion has a direct impact on human and ecological water use with socioeconomic and ecological consequences, it is imperative to manage streams to keep them in a healthy state. In this study, we developed a stream depletion potential index (SDPI) based on the concept of a coupled human-water system (CHWS) operating at simultaneous, interacting scales, and we tested its applicability to watersheds across South Korea. Eight indicators - precipitation, dry days, effective basin area, stream water usage, return flow, groundwater usage, impervious area, and environmental flow supplied by dams - were identified as the key variables for the SDPI. We adopted the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to estimate the weights of the identified indicators based on their causal relationships. Furthermore, we applied three different weighting schemes for urban, rural, and intermediate areas to make the index more effective and applicable to watershed LULC. The spatial distribution of the SDPI results indicated that the western Han River, the central and southern Nak-Dong River and some parts of the southwestern region of the Korean peninsula are prone to stream depletion from several different causes. The SDPI, by predicting changing streamflow characteristics, can be used by policy makers and stakeholders to determine a safe yield for both human and environmental stream use without causing a long-term decline of water availability.     

Quantifying hydrologic alteration in an area lacking current reference conditions—The Mississippi alluvial plain of the south‐central United States

Quantifying hydrologic alteration in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) of the south‐central United States is particularly difficult because of the lack of current reference, or even relatively undisturbed, streams and associated streamflow data. Impacts, such as water withdrawals for agriculture, weirs, dams, channelization, and other forms of regulation, within the MAP increased substantially beginning around 1960 suggesting that streamflow has since been altered. Using historical streamflow and climate data and explanatory variables, the U.S. Geological Survey developed random forest regression models to estimate expected reference monthly streamflows (pre‐1960) at 76 sites in the MAP and two adjacent Level III Ecoregions. To compensate for the lack of current reference stream sites in the study area, the pre‐1960 streamflow data were used as a surrogate to estimate current streamflow conditions without anthropogenic influence (inferring current reference conditions). Overall, nearly every site within the study area had less zero‐flow days than what historically has been observed and there were more low‐pulse spells. However, the frequency of floods remained relatively consistent.     

Sensitivity of Intermittent Streams to Climate Variations in the USA

There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero‐flow behaviour and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the USA. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero‐flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long‐term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero‐flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low‐flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade‐to‐decade trends in the low‐flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long‐term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

流域初始状态对环境同位素法划分流量的影响

在使用同位素示踪剂划分流量时,流域初始状态会对事件水和事件前水分割产生影响。为研究流域初始状态对环境同位素法划分流量的影响,以和睦桥流域2015—2016年间4场降雨事件为研究对象,根据稳定同位素含量(δ¹⁸O)确定其在流域出口断面径流的不同水源组成比例,着重分析流域不同初始流量和前期土壤含水量对流量过程线划分的影响。结果表明:流域出口径流总量中事件前水占优,洪峰流量以事件水为主;流域不同初始状态下同位素分割结果不同,表明该流域存在多种产流机制,流域初始流量与总径流系数及事件水贡献比例呈负相关;前期土壤含水量与事件水贡献比例的影响模式复杂多变,但在前期土壤含水量较高或前期降雨较多的情况下,总径流中事件水贡献比例将降低。     

RELATIONS BETWEEN ALTERED STREAMFLOW VARIABILITY AND FISH ASSEMBLAGES IN EASTERN USA STREAMS

Although altered streamflow has been implicated as a major factor affecting fish assemblages, understanding the extent of streamflow alteration has required quantifying attributes of the natural flow regime. We used predictive models to quantify deviation from expected natural streamflow variability for streams in the eastern USA. Sites with >25% change in mean daily streamflow variability compared with what would be expected in a minimally disturbed environment were defined as having altered streamflow variability, based on the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution of streamflow variability at 1279 hydrological reference sites. We also used predictive models to assess fish assemblage condition and native species loss based on the proportion of expected native fish species that were observed. Of the 97 sites, 49 (50.5%) were classified as altered with reduced streamflow variability, whereas no sites had increased streamflow variability. Reduced streamflow variability was related to a 35% loss in native fish species, on average, and a >50% loss of species with a preference for riffle habitats. Conditional probability analysis indicated that the probability of fish assemblage impairment increased as the severity of altered streamflow variability increased. Reservoir storage capacity and wastewater discharges were important predictors of reduced streamflow variability as revealed by random forest analysis. Management and conservation of streams will require careful consideration of natural streamflow variation and potential factors contributing to altered streamflow within the entire watershed to limit the loss of critical stream habitats and fish species uniquely adapted to live in those habitats. Published in 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flow regimes in coastal California steelhead trout streams: Spatiotemporal patterns in magnitude,duration and timing

The magnitude, timing and duration of precipitation events can vary considerably across spatial and temporal scales. In lotic ecosystems, such differences in precipitation patterns can strongly influence water availability, which in turn affects the population dynamics of stream biota. Connectivity flow thresholds were developed for the movement of juvenile steelhead trout using hydraulic modelling for 37 coastal California streams. Spatial patterns in magnitude, and spatiotemporal patterns in duration and timing of flows meeting threshold levels were analysed using long‐term flow gaging data. Flow thresholds for the movement of juvenile steelhead through riffle sites varied from 0.06 (San Luisito Creek, Elder Creek) to 0.82 (Redwood Creek) cms (cubic meters per second). Flow thresholds increased positively with mean bankfull width, indicating that more water is required for fish movement in wider streams. Precipitation was a dominant driver of flow duration, with flows meeting thresholds longer in wetter regions of the state when compared with drier regions. On the rising limb of the hydrograph, the onset of meeting flow thresholds was influenced by stream width, with thresholds being met earlier in wider streams when compared with narrower streams. On the receding limb of the hydrograph, flow threshold timing was influenced by precipitation, with flows remaining above the threshold later in wetter regions when compared with drier regions. Based on these findings, we recommend that the management of aquatic resources for a broad range of objectives consider regional scales that account for local patterns in precipitation, channel form and prevailing water year conditions to accommodate California's wide spatiotemporal diversity of water availability.     

Influences of environmental conditions on macrophyte communities in drought‐affected headwater streams

A 10‐year study of groundwater‐dominated headwater streams in the chalklands of southern England has highlighted the major influence that stream flow has on the composition of in‐channel macrophyte communities. Macrophytes supply much of the physical structure within these headwater channels, as well as providing habitats for a rich assemblage of higher life forms, some of them specialized and rare. The overall influence of stream flow however, is modulated by many environmental factors operating at diverse spatial scales. Data describing the relevant environmental variables were accumulated for six chalk streams in the Thames basin and related directly to the vegetation record by means of Canonical Correspondence Analysis, correlation tests and other analyses, to reveal the circumstances in which communities would be likely to thrive and those in which they would be negatively impacted by variations in stream flow. It was found that local topography and channel dimensions had a direct influence on the composition of communities at local level and that land use and rates of water abstraction had an underlying, but no less important, influence at catchment level. The species most associated with positive species diversity were those of sluggish flow and damp margins indicating the importance of velocity and moisture gradients across the channel in producing a full manifestation of the flora. Strong negative correlations were produced by non‐aquatic grasses and herbs, which represent prolonged periods of channel desiccation. The environmental parameters most associated with positive diversity were high local water stages, wide channels and a high degree of semi‐natural land use within the catchment. Steep channel gradients were strongly associated with negative diversity. The results have confirmed that optimal channel conditions, as exemplified by the classic ‘winterbourne’ with its low‐flow channel, extensive margins, gently sloping banks and high seasonal inundation, will produce good conditions for species diversity and make communities more resistant to the effects of drought. These conditions can be enhanced through sensitive catchment management that encourages rainfall percolation, limits abstractions and seeks to maintain a low intensity of landcover management. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity Analysis of a Physically Based Distributed Model

The objective of this study is to perform a sensitivity analysis of the SHETRAN model on the example of the torrential Lukovska River catchment in Serbia. The sensitivity analysis of the model was performed for the following parameters: the vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface soil, the horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone, the Strickler roughness coefficients for overland flow and for streams, the available water content in the soil and the erodibility coefficients due to rain and due to overland flow. It can be concluded that the water and sediment discharge are very sensitive to the values of the vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface soil in the range of 0.001 to 0.1 m/day; to the values of the horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone in the range of 0.01 to 5 m/day and to the values of the Strickler’s coefficients for overland flow and for rivers in the range of 0.1 to 100 m1/3s-1 and 15 to 40 m1/3s, respectively. The sediment concentrations in a flow and sediment discharge are very sensitive to the values of erodibility coefficient due to overland flow in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 mg/m2s and to the values of erodibility coefficient due to rain in the range between 0.1 and 40 J-1. The obtained results could be used to simplify the parameter calibration procedure and to facilitate estimation of parameters in ungauged mountainous basins of similar characteristics.     

Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin,India

Climate change can significantly affect the water resources availability by resulting changes in hydrological cycle. Hydrologic models are usually used to predict the impacts of landuse and climate changes and to evaluate the management strategies. In this study, impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Brahmani River basin were assessed using Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) run under the platform of Modular Modeling System (MMS). The plausible hypothetical scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes were used to assess the sensitivity of streamflow to changed climatic condition. The PRMS model was calibrated and validated for the study area. Model performance was evaluated by using joint plots of daily and monthly observed and simulated runoff hydrographs and different statistical indicators. Daily observed and simulated hydrographs showed a reasonable agreement for calibration as well as validation periods. The modeling efficiency (E) varied in the range of 0.69 to 0.93 and 0.85 to 0.95 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Simulation studies with temperature rise of 2 and 4°C indicated 6 and 11% decrease in annual streamflow, respectively. However, there is about 62% increase in annual streamflow under the combined effect of 4°C temperature rise and 30% rainfall increase (T4P30). The results of the scenario analysis showed that the basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall as compared to changes in temperature.     

1975－2015年洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及成因分析

淮河流域洪涝灾害频繁,洪泽湖对其防洪除涝起关键性作用。掌握洪泽湖水沙变化趋势及突变点对流域水资源管理、水沙调节有重要的现实意义。利用入、出洪泽湖各支流代表水文站1975-2015年实测年径流量和年输沙量数据,分析入、出洪泽湖水量和沙量分布特征。通过Mann-Kendall(M-K)秩相关检验法和Pettitt突变点识别法研究入湖、出湖水沙量年际变化趋势和突变点。在此基础上,从流域降雨、水资源开发利用和水库滞沙三个方面分析了洪泽湖水沙变化的主要影响因素。研究表明:洪泽湖入湖、出湖水量年际变化趋势一致,无明显减小趋势,且无显著突变点。入湖沙量有小幅减小趋势,出湖沙量M-K统计值超过95%显著性水平,有明显减小趋势。入湖、出湖沙量发生突变的年份为1991年。对影响因素的分析得到:降雨量变化是水量变化的重要影响因素。1993-2015年,入湖水量呈不明显减小趋势则与流域用水量明显增加、水资源开发利用程度不断提高有关。上游水库建设是导致洪泽湖沙量有明显减小趋势的主要原因,1991年治淮工程的实施,水库复建和水土保持等措施是沙量突变的主要原因。     

Impacts of Projected Climate Changes on Streamflow and Sediment Transport for Three Snowmelt‐Dominated Rivers in the Interior Pacific Northwest

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to have significant impacts on river systems, particularly on rivers dominated by seasonal snowmelt. In addition to altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow, climate change can affect the energy available to transport sediment, as well as the availability of sediment to be transported. These hydrologic changes are sensitive to local climate, which is largely controlled by topography, but climate models cannot resolve processes at these scales. Here, I investigate impacts of climate change on streamflow and suspended‐sediment transport for three snowmelt‐dominated rivers in the interior Pacific Northwest – the Tucannon River in Washington and the South Fork Coeur d'Alene and Red rivers in Idaho – using downscaled climate simulations from regional climate models (a range of three models plus an ensemble average) to drive a basin‐scale hydrologic model. The results indicate that climate change is likely to amplify the annual cycle of river discharge, producing higher winter discharge (increases in ensemble mean January discharge ranging from 4.1% to 34.4% for the three rivers), an earlier spring snowmelt peak (by approximately one month), and lower summer discharge (decreases in ensemble mean July discharge ranging from 5.2% to 47.2%), relative to a late 20th‐century baseline. The magnitude of the largest simulated flood under the ensemble‐average climate change scenario increases by 0.6–41.6% across the three rivers. Simulated changes in suspended‐sediment transport generally follow the changes in streamflow. These changes in discharge and sediment transport will likely produce significant impacts on the study rivers, including changes in flooding, physical habitat, and river morphology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

苜蓿草地侵蚀产沙过程及其水动力学机理试验研究

利用人工模拟降雨试验，定量研究了不同降雨强度（45mm/h、87mm/h、127mm/h）下20°陡坡苜蓿草地的产流产沙变化规律，分析了苜蓿草地侵蚀产沙的水动力学机理。试验结果表明，苜蓿草地累积径流量和累积产沙量与降雨时间呈很好的幂函数关系，随着降雨时间的增大而增大。在45mm/h和87mm/h降雨强度时，草地径流量和侵蚀产沙量呈高-低-稳定的变化趋势，在127mm/h降雨强度时，草地径流量和侵蚀产沙量呈高-低-高的变化趋势。苜蓿草地的水土保持作用通过改变土壤的入渗特性实现，草地坡面入渗率与径流量和产沙量呈明显负线性相关。从水动力学角度对苜蓿草地径流剪切力和单位水流功率与输沙率的关系进行了分析，得出试验条件下苜蓿草地的临界径流剪切力值为2.857N/m2，临界单位水流功率值为0.0114 m/s，输沙率随径流剪切力和单位水流功率的增大而增大。     

鄱阳湖流域气候变化和人类活动对入湖水沙的影响

近些年鄱阳湖湖区季节性干枯问题频繁出现,有必要对鄱阳湖入湖水沙变化进行进一步研究。利用鄱阳湖流域"五河"基本水文站1961～2016年实测的水沙及流域降雨量资料,通过线性趋势、双累积曲线、经验统计法和统计系列对比法研究鄱阳湖入湖水沙演变过程及影响因素。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域降雨量、侵蚀性降雨量、降雨侵蚀力年际变化均呈不显著的上升趋势(P0.05)。入湖径流量年际变化趋势不显著,而入湖输沙量呈极显著的下降趋势(P0.01),且存在1985年和2000年两个突变点。影响入湖径流量和输沙量的关键降雨指标为年降雨量和降雨侵蚀力。以1961～1984年为基准期,1985～1999年经验统计法和系列对比法计算的水利水保工程减沙效应分别为41.8%和33.4%,在2000～2016年分别为70.6%和66.8%,水库拦沙是入湖输沙量减少的主要原因。