考虑公平偏好的工程总承包联合体协同优化收益分配机制研究

考虑参与方谈判能力的差异性,研究设计施工联合体优化收益分配问题,构建无公平偏好情形和具有公平偏好情形下的Nash谈判模型,得到最优收益分配方案和双方最优努力水平,分析谈判能力和公平偏好对双方决策和利润的影响。结果表明：谈判能力与施工方努力水平呈现倒“U”型趋势;而与设计方努力水平的关系受到公平偏好的调节,呈现倒“U”型和正相关两种趋势。公平偏好与设计方努力水平之间呈现负相关、倒“U”型和正相关3种趋势;当设计方谈判能力较强时,施工方适度的公平偏好可激励设计方提高努力水平;当设计方谈判能力较弱时,施工方的公平偏好会降低设计方的努力水平。以期为工程总承包联合体优化收益分配机制构建提供参考,助力工程总承包联合体共创共赢。     

考虑风险偏好与公平关切的设计施工总承包联合体优化收益分配

为了使设计施工联合体工程总承包项目中优化收益的分配更加公平合理,在设计方与施工方平等合作的基础上,引入风险偏好和公平关切理论,构建设计方与施工方的不完全信息博弈模型。通过对模型的求解,比较分析引入风险偏好和公平偏好前后,最优努力水平和最优收益分配比例的变化情况,得出风险偏好对双方最优努力程度没有影响,但是优化收益最优分配比例会随着各自风险偏好程度的增加而减少;而引入设计方公平关切后,设计方在自身效用最大化下付出的最优努力水平有所减少,优化收益最优分配比例有所增加,且优化收益最优分配比例随着设计方公平关切程度和外生因素的增大而增大。最后通过Matlab数值仿真模拟对结论进行数值验证,以确保结论的准确性。     

公平关切下总承包项目收益分配策略分析

设计施工联合体成员属于独立的经济体,以自身利益最大化为合作目标,所以合理的收益分配策略是联合体成员合作成败的关键。从行为科学角度出发,引入公平关切理论,基于改进的FS模型,构建设计方和施工方之间的斯塔克尔伯格(Stackelberg)博弈模型;考虑设计方嫉妒效用和同情效用两方面综合影响,对联合体的最优收益分配比例以及设计方和施工方最优努力程度进行了分析。最后,采用调研数据分析了设计方嫉妒效用和同情效用下,公平关切系数对设计方、施工方努力程度,设计方、施工方效用以及联合体整体绩效的影响。结果表明:设计方嫉妒偏好增强会提高自身效用和联合体系统整体效用但会降低施工方效用;相反,在一定范围内同情偏好增强不仅会提高自身效用和施工方效用,还会提高联合体系统整体效用。联合体在制定分配策略时应考虑激发设计方的同情心理偏好,使联合体双方和整体效用均能达到较高水平。     

我国DB总承包交易模式绩效的实证研究

DB总承包模式作为国际广泛使用的项目交易方式,其绩效问题一直是国内外学者关注的热点问题。通过问卷调研方式搜集126份样本数据,由业主方、总承包商、设计方、施工方及咨询方5个角度出发从工期、造价、质量3个方面对DB总承包模式绩效做实证研究。研究结果显示,DB总承包模式在我国较传统DBB模式在工期和造价上有一定优势,但DB模式质量绩效表现并不令人满意;以设计方为主导的DB总承包商较以施工方为主导的DB总承包商更受青睐。     

EPC联合体合作关系演化博弈分析

EPC 联合体合作关系质量对项目目标能否顺利实现有着至关重要的影响。基于演化博弈理论,研究 EPC 联合体内部设计单位和施工单位之间合作关系,通过双方收益和成本得出双方合作关系支付矩阵,构建并求解演化博弈理论的复制动态方程及演化稳定策略,并应用 Matlab 软件对影响 EPC 联合体合作关系的因素进行仿真。结果表明,设计单位和施工单位合作关系长期演化结果可能是均采取“合作”策略,也可能是均采取“不合作”策略;群体采取“合作”策略的比例与额外收益分配及其分配系数、收益实现系数及“不合作”策略损失及其风险系数成正相关,与合作成本和损失分配系数成负相关。针对双方合作困境给出了改善 EPC 联合体内部各参与方合作关系质量的建议。     

基于博弈论的EPC联合体内部行为分析

根据博弈论理论,对EPC总承包联合体内部成员的行为进行博弈分析,论述了EPC联合体总承包模式的优缺点,并探讨了基于利益分配设计方与施工方的博弈过程,指出合理的奖励与惩戒制度是顺利完成项目目标的前提。     

基于合作博弈的BIM-IPD项目参与方利益分配研究

BIM与IPD的协同管理能为合作项目带来更多利益,为了解决合作参与方的超额利益分配问题,分析了BIM技术与IPD协同管理概念,构建依据贡献度来计算参与方最佳利益分配的合作博弈模型,考虑各参与方资源投入和风险分担两大因素,得出修正后的Shapley分配值。并通过算例分析各参与方的利益分配,结果表明业主、设计方、施工方、BIM咨询方均产生合作带来的超额收益,其中业主和施工方收益分配额较高,而设计方和BIM咨询方的收益增长率较高,在理性行为假设上显示了合作的可能性和分配的合理性。完善的协同管理框架加上合理的利益分配方式能在最大程度上激励项目参与方,促进BIM技术与IPD模式的合作发展。     

装配式EPC总承包商和设计方的监管博弈研究

本文针对当前EPC模式下装配式建筑设计存在的问题,提出了总承包商和设计方之间引入第三方监管的必要性,通过博弈论的方法,构建了总承包商-设计方的博弈模型,分析了总承包商和设计方在不同情境下的策略选择,得出超额利润分配系数和风险成本分担系数对总承包商和设计方的策略选择具有重要影响,促进设计方在装配式建筑过程中采取积极策略,进而达成双方良好合作,创造最大的收益,最终实现共赢.     

综合布线系统工程服务的价值(三)

综合布线厂商的工程服务在近几年兴起,它是以综合布线产品厂商的技术实力为后盾,为设计、安装、使用综合布线产品的设计方、施工方和使用方提供专业的技术服务,以期消除工程中可能存在的隐患,帮助施工方既快又好地完成综合布线工程,为最终客户的日常维护提供技术指导。     

综合布线系统工程服务的价值(四)

综合布线产品厂商的工程服务在近几年兴起的,它的含义是以综合布线产品厂商的技术实力为后盾,为设计、安装、使用综合布线产品的设计方、施工方和使用方提供专业的技术服务,以消除工程中可能存在的隐患,帮助施工方既快又好地完成综合布线工程,并为最终客户的日常维护提供技术指导。     

EPC联合体风险动态分担研究——基于ISM-随机合作博弈

为了使EPC项目联合体成员风险分配更加合理,在识别EPC项目全过程风险的基础上,运用ISM法对总承包商风险进行层次划分,构建“四阶段”风险动态分担框架;在此基础上,针对共担风险,提出基于随机合作博弈的最优风险分担模型并进行求解,得到联合体成员的最优风险分担比例。以经济风险为例,应用此方法对其在联合体内部进行转移,实现风险的最优分配,使项目总效益提高,验证了风险动态分担模型的作用。     

Critical success factors for PPP/PFI projects in the UK construction industry

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) are increasingly used in the United Kingdom's public facilities and services provision through the Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Despite some casualties, PPP/PFI projects have been undertaken successfully, but the reasons for success are not entirely clear. Questionnaire survey research examined the relative importance of 18 potential critical success factors (CSF) for PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK. The results show that the three most important factors are: ‘a strong and good private consortium’, ‘appropriate risk allocation’ and ‘available financial market’. Factor analysis revealed that appropriate factor groupings for the 18 CSFs are: effective procurement, project implementability, government guarantee, favourable economic conditions and available financial market. These findings should influence policy development towards PPPs and the manner in which partners go about the development of PFI projects.     

浅谈如何做好建设项目管理工作

随着建筑业市场的竞争加剧,如何搞好建设项目管理,使经济效益最大化已经成为建设单位提高自身竞争力的重要途径。建设项目实行法人责任制,加大了项目法人对建设项目管理的责任和风险,客观上要求有一大批有专业知识懂管理的人来协助需求方,这样既能提高投资效益,也能保证工程质量。     

博弈视角下 EPC 项目联合体风险分担研究

为了对 EPC 项目联合体风险进行合理分担,促进 EPC 项目的顺利实施,在文献分析及专家访谈的基础上确立了 EPC项目联合体风险因素指标体系。采用完全信息静态博弈理论对风险因素进行初次分担,针对共担风险构建风险分担修正指标体系,采用 G1 法及 CRITIC 法对 EPC 项目联合体风险分担修正指标进行组合赋权。并以自然风险为例构建改进 Shapely 模型,确定 EPC 项目联合体合理的风险分担比例,进一步验证模型的有效性。     

Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

A fuzzy multi-criteria approach for critical path definition

This paper focuses on the identification of the critical path in complex projects networks. To extend the capabilities of the traditional project-scheduling approaches an innovative framework is presented, which integrates Fuzzy Logic and Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. The aim is to determine the critical path taking into account not only the expected duration of the tasks, but also additional critical parameters such as: ‘duration variability’, ‘costs’, ‘shared resources’, ‘risk of major design revisions’ and ‘external risks’. To this scope, all the previously mentioned parameters are evaluated following a mathematical approach based on Fuzzy Logic and are aggregated using the ‘Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution’ (TOPSIS) to define the resulting critical path. An example concerning an engineering project is also presented to better explain the potentials and the capabilities of the proposed approach.     

基于PPP模式的公共部门投资激励约束机制方法研究

城市基础设施建设中采用 PPP 模式,是带动城市经济与社会双重效益的新特征。公私部门合作需要利用激励约束 机制来调动参与项目建设投资的积极性,以获得经济社会公益与经济效益共赢。通过对实践案例研究发现,有效建立激励机 制,取决于政府在项目建设中为私有部门提供的报酬及其为自身积极努力的程度。激励机制效用是政府独特约束控制权确定 的关键。为了论证研究方法在项目实施中的效用,构建了激励约束机制方法模型。研究结果表明,采用 PPP 模式的项目运 营决策标准存在差异性,激励约束机制在 PPP 项目运营中作用和风险分担能力最强,收益约束监管难度最高。因此,建立 激励约束机制便于规避 PPP 模式在城市建设运营中的风险且有利于促进社会公平。     

The project sponsor role and benefits realisation: More than ‘just doing the day job’

The project sponsor role has been identified in both guidance and research as being a key factor affecting project success. However, there is still a knowledge gap in terms of how the project sponsor role is experienced and understood by the senior managers undertaking the role, including their understanding of their accountability for benefits realisation. Phenomenography is ideally suited to address these issues, and was used to explore project sponsor experiences at a hospital in England. One conception of the project sponsor role was ‘just doing the day job’, which is contrary to project sponsorship guidance, but is consistent with some of the evidence on the role in practice. Using the interactionist perspective from role theory, it is suggested that seniority enables ‘role making’ individuals holding such views to conflate it with their substantive position. This contrasts with the ‘role taking’ conception of the sponsor as ‘wearing two different hats’.     

Maintaining an Arm's Length? Housing,Community Governance and the Management of ‘Problematic’ Populations

This paper examines how contemporary social problems of community care, anti-social behaviour, ethnic and racial tensions and the housing of sex offenders are conceptualised in UK housing and urban policy. It explores how and why the populations of social housing areas disproportionately bear the risks arising from these social problems, and how the responses of these populations are subsequently problematised. The redefining of social landlords' roles in managing ‘problematic’ populations is explored, and similarities in the responses to social problems in both private and social housing developments are identified, based around parochial ‘community’ forms of governance. The paper concludes that the increasing secession of local housing governance from a ‘public’ model of provision increases the ‘subsidiarity of responsibility’ upon deprived populations for managing social problems, reflecting a wider imbalance in the societal distribution of risks.     

基于委托代理理论的 DB 模式道德风险治理研究

完善 DB 模式管理机制既满足国内建筑业转型升级的迫切需要,又保证了业主的利益诉求。分析 DB 模式内涵特点及内部关系,构建“委托—代理”模型阐明了工程总承包市场内“道德风险”存在机理以及业主对于总承包商提供激励和约束措施的必要性。通过对模型参数进行分析,提出引入因素激励函数、相对信息强度和监督函数来规范总承包商的行为,并给予制定合同奖励条款、加强市场环境建设和拓宽业主监督渠道等相应措施建议。