An integrated real options evaluating model for information technology projects under multiple risks

Information technology (IT) investments are exposed to multiple sources of risks. Past information systems research on real options evaluation could not deal with a mix of public and private risks sufficiently in the valuation procedures. Moreover, the relationship between IT investment value and risk factors has rarely been fully explored and remains debatable. In this light, we present an approach based on real options to evaluate IT investments subject to multiple risks. By modeling public risks and private risks in different ways, this approach produces some new results that are different from prior researches. It is found that public risk has an upward effect on the expected payoffs, while private risk influences the options value in a contrary way. The suggested method could help IT managers produce a well-structured valuation process in IT investment decision-making, and understand the interactions between IT risks and options value in a clear way. We also illustrate how the proposed procedure is applied to an ERP project in a construction company.     

复合实物期权在风电项目投资评估中的应用

与传统的能源发电投资相比,风电项目投资存在更多风险因素,从而带来了更大的不确定性,为确保风电项目投资的效益,无论对风电项目投资者而言,还是从我国风能资源发展角度出发,都迫切需要一个可量化风险的投资决策工具来辅助指导投资者做出科学的投资决策。基于实物期权理论的投资决策方法能有效地处理投资中各种风险因素带来的不确定性,弥补传统NPV 法在这方面的不足,是一种更为科学、合理的投资决策评价方法。针对风电项目工程具有的复合实物期权特性,提出了在风电项目投资决策中引入复合实物期权思路和模型,并以实例讨论了Geske 复合期权定价模型的应用方法,验证了实物期权方法在评估风电项目投资项目价值时的有效性。     

企业投资工程实施清单计价的优势及审计要点

就实施工程量清单计价控制工程造价的管理特点,分析了在企业内部投资工程实施工程量清单计价管理的应用优势,提出了工程量清单计价过程中审计应当把握的工作要点,以提高企业投资效益和管理水平。     

Systems-of-systems methodology for strategic infrastructure decision making: Ireland as a case study

Infrastructure development is a long term process, which cannot easily adapt to sudden change; and infrastructure assets can have long lifetimes. Poor investment choices risk locking in poor policy choices for substantial periods of time. The ‘need’ for a new infrastructure asset arises due to demographic, economic or policy changes. But historically Ireland’s infrastructure investment has also been driven, in part, by the pursuit of political / economic policies which have themselves ‘created’ infrastructure needs; and often decided on an isolated project-by-project basis. In contrast, a systems-of-systems (SoS) approach is a fusion of network modelling, consideration of various policy options, and appraisal of the impact of alternative demographic and economic scenarios on multiple systems. This paper assesses Ireland’s readiness to adopt a SoS approach to infrastructure decision-making, proposes a methodology for its development and implementation. This would enable the demand for new infrastructure to be tested under various policy scenarios, providing evidence for investment decisions.     

Speeding up decision-making in project environment: The effects of decision makers' collaboration network dynamics

Faced with continuously changing project environments, organizations need to not only make the right decisions but also make decisions in a timely manner. This study investigates the determinants of timely decision-making from the perspective of collaboration network dynamics. From the archival data recordings of the decision-making meetings of Program N, a national water transfer program, the meeting-based collaboration relationships of the decision makers were identified. Cox regression was employed to explore the effects of collaboration network dynamics on the time needed to reach a decision. The results suggest that stronger previous collaboration relationships and more centralized social capital distribution in decisions groups contribute to more timely decision-making. These findings substantiate social network theories in a real-world collaborative decision-making setting and reveal the facilitators of timely project decisions. The practical implication for project decision management is that the recruitment of a decision-making group should be based on not only the decision makers' technical expertise but also their collaboration network dynamics.     

工程量清单计价模式下的工程造价控制

本文在阐述了工程量清单计价的基本概念的基础上,着重叙述了在工程量清单计价模式下,在工程的投资决策阶段、设计阶段、招投标阶段、施工及竣工决算阶段的工程造价控制方法。     

贝叶斯方法在房地产风险决策中的应用研究

风险概率期望分析是房地产投资风险决策的难点问题。传统的敏感性分析和概率分析主要是利用事先预测概率为依据,而不便于利用事物发展中的信息对预测概率进行及时合理修正、调整,使之更接近实际情况,使决策者可根据发展变化信息及时调整决策。文中将决策树方法与贝叶斯概率分析相结合,结合实例提出了贝叶斯方法在房地产投资风险决策的应用方法和相关决策规则的选择思路。     

基于实物期权的工程项目投资决策方法

本文针对传统净现值评价方法的局限性,探讨了实物期权新决策方法以及实物期权在工程项目中的价值驱动因素,更新了项目投资决策方法。     

A critical analysis of recent advances in the techniques for the evaluation of renewable energy projects

Renewable energy investment is an integral part of sustainable economic development agenda. Whereas some important advances have been made in recent years to assist project investors in making better use of financial risk management instruments and taking into consideration real options embedded in renewable energy projects, this research asserts that, owing to failure to consider both behavioural uncertainty and the limit of risk transfer, these approaches may still lead to a biased evaluation result. Drawing on a novel concept of “risk-bearing capacity”, the research suggests developing a new approach whereby investors can incorporate the choice of financial protection measures into investment evaluation in a coherent way.     

基于工程量清单计价模式下的工程造价控制

从设计，工程单价，招投标及投标人风险等角度入手，分析了传统计价模式和新型计价模式的区别，并探讨了新模式下设计、施工及竣工阶段应采取的造价控制措施，以期将工程造价控制在合理的范围之内。     

Project benefit management: Setting effective target benefits

Target benefits such as “reduced operational costs” are project goals that can contribute to the long-term improvement of organizational performance following project completion. Setting effective target benefits is critical because it supports project investment decisions, clear project management direction, and thereby enhanced project and organizational performance. Based on goal setting theory, we present three studies to develop and validate a scale to measure effective target benefits. The proposed scale is comprised of three dimensions - specificity (e.g., specific target values), attainability (e.g., the capacity to realize the target benefits), and comprehensiveness (e.g., reflect the views of key stakeholders). This scale can be used by senior managers to assess proposed projects' target benefits, contributing to more informed project investment decision-making and the subsequent benefit management process. Theoretically, it can also be used as an instrument to facilitate theory development in the fields of project benefit management, strategy implementation, and organizational performance.     

工程量清单计价模式下施工阶段的造价控制

对新的计价模式下施工阶段造价控制方法进行了研究,运用过程控制原理控制各清单子目的完成情况,对现场签证及索赔管理进行了论述,提出了新模式下施工阶段造价控制新观点和方法,以期达到合理控制造价的目的。     

论房地产开发项目投资控制

针对目前房地产开发项目投资控制的特点,提出房地产开发项目投资控制与管理应贯穿于项目的全过程,分别从项目决策阶段、设计阶段、招标阶段、施工阶段、竣工阶段论述了如何对项目进行全过程投资控制,以期降低整个项目的工程成本,提高项目的投资效益。     

基于交换期权的项目投资决策研究

项目投资受到诸多不确定性因素的影响,传统的评价方法未考虑这些不确定性因素的价值,而实物期权法在项目投资中在考虑项目管理的灵活性后更能准确地估算项目价值,提高项目决策的准确性。文章采用实物期权理论,针对项目中资产价值波动性的特点,采用历史数据估算资产波动率,结合回归分析法,得出相互替代资产间波动率的函数关系,建立了二叉树三维立体交换期权评估模型。通过案例分析项目的交换期权价值,获得项目投资过程的管理柔性价值,为项目决策提供依据。     

实物期权在房地产投资决策中应用研究

房地产项目投资具有不可逆性、高度不确定性和管理的灵活性,运用传统的净现值法不能挖掘出项目投资的这些性质所带来的价值,而应用实物期权方法进行房地产投资决策研究,不仅考虑到了房地产投资的不确定性,还体现了投资决策者的柔性管理和战略投资的价值。文章分析了传统净现值法的一些不足,介绍了实物期权的基本理论,并采用了B-S期权定价模型对房地产投资决策过程中蕴含的增长期权进行了案例分析,使得房地产投资决策更加科学合理。     

浅谈当前工程造价的控制与管理

分析了传统计价与定额计价的区别,从招投标阶段、合同签订阶段、施工阶段、竣工阶段,探讨了当前工程造价的控制与管理,以避免建设资金的流失,最大限度地提高建设资金的投资效益。     

Decision support tool on investments in life safety based on sampling theory

For decisions related to investments in societal safety and health, it is often difficult to balance the discretionary competence of decision-makers with theoretical optimum levels of investment. While removing day-to-day decisions about risk from the political arena would arguably result in better decisions, a full depoliticisation is not desirable since public and private risk preferences cannot simply be neglected without negatively affecting the perception of risk and inducing a democratic deficit. Therefore, a decision-making tool has been developed which allows for narrowing the scope of possible decisions for the decision-maker, based on predetermined maximum acceptable deviations from the theoretic optimum investment level. These maximum acceptable deviations should be established upfront on a general basis and may subsequently be applied on a case-by-case basis. In this paper, the basic calculation concepts are explained and a detailed example study is presented in which limits for the target safety level of concrete slabs are determined under some specific considerations.     

Separating project risk from the time value of money: A step toward integration of risk management and valuation of infrastructure investments

The rationale for using heuristics to establish a risk premium that is added to the risk-free rate to obtain the value of an investment is questioned and an alternative method, termed decoupled net present value (DNPV), is proposed. Rather than using utility theory concepts to decrease the value of uncertain cash flows, the risks associated with project cash flows are discretely quantified using insurance and contingent claim valuation concepts. Synthetic insurance premiums are designed to “protect” the value of expected cash flows which are treated as additional project costs. Because identified project risks are quantified in financial terms and treated as a real cost to the project, DNPV allows business executives to evaluate the effect on the value of the project of different risks and select management techniques that are deemed more effective. Hence, DNPV is both a valuation methodology and a risk management tool.     

基础设施PPP 项目实物期权界定与分析

PPP 项目自身特点决定了项目运作过程中需要更为弹性的决策管理方法。实物期权方法更加重视弹性决策的价值问题,它可以用来对由未来变化决定的项目、不确定性大的项目以及需要战略修正的项目等进行评价。在PPP 项目运作程序分析的基础上,分阶段界定了PPP 项目的实物期权类型和实物期权的拥有人;并且从PPP 项目全寿命期的角度认为所有参与者拥有的是一个非常复杂的多重复合期权,给出了PPP 项目全寿命期实物期权分析路径图,以帮助管理者在项目运作过程中进行弹性决策。本研究是PPP 项目价值评估的基础工作,同时也是PPP 项目全寿命期风险管理的有力工具。使得实物期权在PPP 项目实践中更具操作性。     

基于DEA 的房地产投资决策方案评价

房地产项目投资大,回收周期长,受到经济、政治、环境等因素的制约。如何在众多投资方案中选择最佳的方案进行投资,是房地产企业必须考虑的问题。为了探索房地产投资决策中更为合理和科学的方法,采用DEA 方法建立房地产投资决策中相应的输入—输出指标模型。房地产企业在面对多个建设方案时,不仅要考虑每个方案可能带来的收益,而且要考虑投资决策过程中的投入问题。将指标划分为成本型和效益型,克服了其他方法指标的单一性,从而提高了评价系统的科学性。通过对典型实例的分析,验证了该方法的有效性,保证了评价方案的客观和准确。