神经网络在软件失效预测中的性能比较和研究

在软件开发的早期预测有失效倾向的软件模块,能够极大地提高软件的质量.软件失效预测中的一个普遍问题是数据中噪声的存在.神经网络具有鲁棒性而且对噪声有很强的抑制能力.不同结构的神经网络在训练算法和应用领域都有差异.该文主要就软件失效预测这个应用领域叙述几种适用的网络,并比较这几种网络在训练结果和性能上的差异.上述方法在SDH通信软件的失效预测中得到了成功的应用.试验结果显示虽然MLP、PNN、LVQ网络都能解决这类模式分类问题,但是只有MLP网络训练结果比较稳定,在不同的数据集上训练出的网络都有很好的预测效果.     

基于客户机/服务器的系统资源数据采集

系统资源数据的采集是基于预测软件Rejuvenation技术的一个很重要的环节，为后面的软件老化过程的确认和可能的软件失效的预测提供准备。该文利用客户机／服务器的模式对开放式操作系统Linux平台上的系统资源数据的采集和网络传输进行了讨论，并进行了程序的设计及实现。     

基于BASFPA-BP的可靠性预测模型研究

软件可靠性预测以软件可靠性预测模型为基础，对软件的可靠性以及与其直接相关的度量进行分析、评价和预测，利用软件运行中所收集的失效数据对未来的软件可靠性进行预测，成为了评估软件失效行为和保障软件可靠程度的重要手段。BP神经网络结构简单、参数少、易实现，在软件可靠性预测领域已经得到了广泛应用。然而基于传统BP神经网络搭建的软件可靠性预测模型的预测精度无法达到预期目标，因此提出了基于BASFPA-BP的软件可靠性预测模型。该模型利用软件失效数据，在BP神经网络训练过程中利用BASFPA算法优化网络权值、阈值，从而提高模型的预测精度。选用3组公开的软件失效数据，将实际值与预测值的均方误差作为预测结果的衡量标准，同时将BASFPA-BP与FPA-BP,BP,Elman这3种模型进行对比研究。实验结果表明，基于BASFPA-BP的软件可靠性预测模型在同类型模型中实现了较高的预测精度。     

基于GMDH因果关系的软件缺陷预测模型

软件缺陷预测是软件可靠性研究的一个重要方向。基于自组织数据挖掘(GMDH)网络与因果关系检验理论提出了一种软件缺陷预测模型,借鉴Granger检验思想,利用GMDH网络选择与软件失效具有因果关系的度量指标,建立软件缺陷预测模型。该方法从复杂系统建模角度研究软件度量指标与软件缺陷之间的因果关系,可以检验多变量之间在非线性意义上的因果关系。最后基于两组真实软件失效数据集,将所提出的方法与基于Granger因果检验的软件缺陷预测模型进行比较分析。结果表明,基于GMDH因果关系的软件缺陷预测模型比Granger因果检验方法具有更为显著的预测效果。     

基于EMD和GEP的软件可靠性预测模型

基于经验模态分解和基因表达式编程算法提出了一种软件可靠性预测模型。通过对软件失效数据序列进行经验模态分解得到不同频段的本征模态分量和剩余分量,消除失效数据中的噪声,运用基因表达式编程算法的灵活表达能力,把分解得到的不同频段的各本征模态分量及剩余分量中所对应的不同失效时间序列作为样本来分别进行预测,重构各本征模态分量和剩余分量中相对应的预测结果,将其作为软件失效的最终预测值。基于两组真实软件失效数据集,将所提出的方法与基于支持向量回归机以及单纯使用基因表达式编程的软件可靠性预测模型进行比较分析。结果表明,该软件可靠性预测模型具有更为显著的模型拟合能力与精确的预测效果。     

软件可靠性混沌神经网络模型

基于经验模态分解算法、混沌分析和神经网络理论提出了一种软件可靠性建模及预测的混沌神经网络模型。首先应用经验模态分解算法把软件失效数据序列分解成不同尺度的基本模态分量,并在此基础上进一步分析,表明软件失效数据是否存在混沌特性;再经神经网络进行组合预测,提高模型对目标函数的学习能力,有效提高预测精度;最后基于两组真实软件失效数据集,将所提出的方法与基于支持向量回归机以及单纯使用神经网络的软件可靠性预测模型进行比较分析。结果表明,基于混沌分析、结合经验模态分解和神经网络的软件可靠性预测模型具有更为显著的模型拟合能力与精确的预测效果。     

基于拟似然估计方法的软件失效预测模型

软件缺陷预测是软件可靠性研究的一个重要方向。由于影响软件失效的因素有很多,相互之间关联关系复杂,在分析建模中常用联合分布函数来描述,而实际应用中难以确定,直接影响软件失效预测。基于拟似然估计提出一种软件失效预测方法,通过主成分分析筛选影响软件失效的主要影响因素,建立多因素软件失效预测模型,利用这些影响因素的数字特征(均值函数和方差函数)以及采用拟似然估计方法估计出模型参数,进而对软件失效进行预测分析。基于两个真实数据集Eclipse JDT和Eclipse PDE,与经典Logistic回归和Probit回归预测模型进行实验对比分析,结果表明采用拟似然估计对软件缺陷预测具有可行性,且预测精度均优于这两种经典回归预测模型。     

考虑软件不同失效过程偏差的软件可靠性模型

软件可靠性分析是根据软件失效数据等信息,通过合理建模来对软件可靠性进行预计和评价.现有的基于随机过程的可靠性模型一般采用均值过程来描述软件失效数据,然而,软件失效数据的模型化实质上应该是使其成为某个随机过程的一个样本轨迹.文中建立了考虑软件不同失效过程偏差的软件可靠性模型,用NHPP过程表示失效过程均值函数的变化趋势,ARMA过程表示实际失效过程对均值过程的偏差序列.在两组公开发表的真实数据集上对模型的实验表明,新模型较之一些广泛使用的NHPP软件可靠性模型在拟合能力及适用性上有明显的提高,并且保持了较好的预测能力.     

基于改进的非参数方法的软件失效预测模型

基于主成分分析(PCA)和改进的N-W非参数估计法(INW)提出了一种新的软件失效预测模型。首先,通过对非参数估计的训练样本集进行主成分分析来减少非参数回归估计和预测的输入因子数,再利用PCA计算的方差贡献率作为非参数方法中带宽矩阵的权重,消除各输入因子对结果的作用程度不同所造成的影响,进而建立软件失效预测模型。最后基于一组真实软件失效数据集Eclipse JDT进行实例分析。结果表明,基于改进的非参数方法的软件失效预测模型在预测的精度和稳定性上得到了进一步提高。在后10步的预测范围内,预测值的平均误差为16.2575,均方百分比误差为0.0726。     

基于最大Lyapunov指数的软件失效预测

现有的大部分软件可靠性模型都将软件失效过程看作是随机过程,但已证明软件失效过程具有混沌特性,不是单纯的随机行为。混沌预测方法通常只能做短中期的预测,只有在其有效预测时间段内,它的预测才是可信的;但现有的基于混沌的软件可靠性模型均没有指明其有效预测时间段的长度,只能做单步预测。为解决以上问题,建立了基于最大Lyapunov指数的软件失效预测模型,该模型明确指出了有效预测时长,可以做多步预测。将其应用于从模拟法庭教学软件系统采集到的实测软件失效数据,取得了较好的预测效果。同时,预测结果还表明:在有效预测时间段内,预测精度较高;反之,预测误差很大。     

A fuzzy-filtered neuro-fuzzy framework for software fault prediction for inter-version and inter-project evaluation

Fault Prediction is the most required measure to estimate the software quality and reliability. Several methods, measures, aspects and testing methodologies are available to evaluate the software fault. In this paper, a fuzzy-filtered neuro-fuzzy framework is introduced to predict the software faults for internal and external software projects. The suggested framework is split into three primary phases. At the earlier phase, the effective metrics or measures are identified, which can derive the accurate decision on prediction of software fault. In this phase, the composite analytical observation of each software attribute is calculated using Information Gain and Gain Ratio measures. In the second phase, these fuzzy rules are applied on these measures for selection of effective and high-impact features. In the last phase, the Neuro-fuzzy classifier is applied on fuzzy-filtered training and testing sets. The proposed framework is applied to identify the software faults based on inter-version and inter-project evaluation. In this framework, the earlier projects or project-versions are considered as training sets and the new projects or versions are taken as testing sets. The experimentation is conducted on nine open source projects taken from PROMISE repository as well as on PDE and JDT projects. The approximation is applied on internal version-specific fault prediction and external software projects evaluation. The comparative analysis is performed against Decision Tree, Random Tree, Random Forest, Naive Bayes and Multilevel Perceptron classifiers. This prediction result signifies that the proposed framework has gained the higher accuracy, lesser error rate and significant AUC and GM for inter-project and inter-version evaluations.     

基于深度自编码网络的软件缺陷预测方法

软件缺陷预测是提升软件质量的有效方法,而软件缺陷预测方法的预测效果与数据集自身的特点有着密切的相关性。针对软件缺陷预测中数据集特征信息冗余、维度过大的问题,结合深度学习对数据特征强大的学习能力,提出了一种基于深度自编码网络的软件缺陷预测方法。该方法首先使用一种基于无监督学习的采样方法对6个开源项目数据集进行采样,解决了数据集中类不平衡问题;然后训练出一个深度自编码网络模型。该模型能对数据集进行特征降维,模型的最后使用了三种分类器进行连接,该模型使用降维后的训练集训练分类器,最后用测试集进行预测。实验结果表明,该方法在维数较大、特征信息冗余的数据集上的预测性能要优于基准的软件缺陷预测模型和基于现有的特征提取方法的软件缺陷预测模型,并且适用于不同分类算法。     

基于CS-ANN的软件缺陷预测模型研究

为了提高软件缺陷预测的准确率,利用布谷鸟搜索算法(Cuckoo Search,CS)的寻优能力和人工神经网络算法（Artificial Neural Network,ANN）的非线性计算能力,提出了基于CS-ANN的软件缺陷预测方法。此方法首先使用基于关联规则的特征选择算法降低数据的维度,去除了噪声属性;利用布谷鸟搜索算法寻找神经网络算法的权值,然后使用权值和神经网络算法构建出预测模型;最后使用此模型完成缺陷预测。使用公开的NASA数据集进行仿真实验,结果表明该模型降低了误报率并提高了预测的准确率,综合评价指标AUC（area under the ROC curve）、F1值和G-mean都优于现有模型。     

Prediction of software reliability using connectionist models

The usefulness of connectionist models for software reliability growth prediction is illustrated. The applicability of the connectionist approach is explored using various network models, training regimes, and data representation methods. An empirical comparison is made between this approach and five well-known software reliability growth models using actual data sets from several different software projects. The results presented suggest that connectionist models may adapt well across different data sets and exhibit a better predictive accuracy. The analysis shows that the connectionist approach is capable of developing models of varying complexity     

Application of the recurrent multilayer perceptron in modelingcomplex process dynamics

A nonlinear dynamic model is developed for a process system, namely a heat exchanger, using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The perceptron is a dynamic neural network, which appears effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. Dynamic gradient descent learning is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over a static learning algorithm used to train the same network. In developing the empirical process model the effects of actuator, process, and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response of various testing sets. Extensive model validation studies with signals that are encountered in the operation of the process system modeled, that is steps and ramps, indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize operational transients, including accurate prediction of instabilities not in the training set. However, the accuracy of the model beyond these operational transients has not been investigated. Furthermore, online learning is necessary during some transients and for tracking slowly varying process dynamics. Neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models.     

Pronunciation prediction with Default&Refine

The Default&Refine algorithm is a new rule-based learning algorithm that was developed as an accurate and efficient pronunciation prediction mechanism for speech processing systems. The algorithm exhibits a number of attractive properties including rapid generalisation from small training sets, good asymptotic accuracy, robustness to noise in the training data, and the production of compact rule sets. We describe the Default&Refine algorithm in detail and demonstrate its performance on two benchmarked pronunciation databases (the English OALD and Flemish FONILEX pronunciation dictionaries) as well as a newly-developed Afrikaans pronunciation dictionary. We find that the algorithm learns more efficiently (achieves higher accuracy on smaller data sets) than any of the alternative pronunciation prediction algorithms considered. In addition, we demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to generate an arbitrarily small rule set in such a way that the trade-off between rule set size and accuracy is well controlled. A conceptual comparison with alternative algorithms (including Dynamically Expanding Context, Transformation-Based Learning and Pronunciation by Analogy) clarifies the competitive performance obtained with Default&Refine.     

Forecasting of Software Reliability Using Neighborhood Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization Based Novel Neural Network

This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) based software reliability model trained by novel particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for enhanced forecasting of the reliability of software. The proposed ANN is developed considering the fault generation phenomenon during software testing with the fault complexity of different levels. We demonstrate the proposed model considering three types of faults residing in the software. We propose a neighborhood based fuzzy PSO algorithm for competent learning of the proposed ANN using software failure data. Fitting and prediction performances of the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model are compared with the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and existing ANN based software reliability models in the literature through three real software failure data sets. We also compare the performance of the proposed PSO algorithm with the standard PSO algorithm through learning of the proposed ANN. Statistical analysis shows that the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model has comparatively better fitting and predictive ability than the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and other ANN based software reliability models. Faster release of software is achievable by applying the proposed PSO based neural network model during the testing period.      

基于VI技术的发电机组在线监测和故障诊断研究

从发电机组的运行行为出发，应用现代非线性理论对发电机组的非线性特征进行了分析，并进行了故障状态的分形维数计算，针对发电机组的各种故障特征，将网络技术，虚拟仪器技术，现代非线性理论融合为一体，利用基于虚拟仪器技术的LabVIEW开发平台，开发了网络环境下的发电机组在线状态监测及故障诊断系统，该系统经现场检验，操作简单，可靠性强，且诊断准确率高，该研究为解决发电机组的在线监测和故障诊断，提供了充分的理论依据和可靠的方法。     

Software fault prediction using Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous Inputs (NARX) network

This paper explores a new approach for predicting software faults by means of NARX neural network. Also, a careful analysis has been carried out to determine the applicability of NARX network in software reliability. The validation of the proposed approach has been performed using two real software failure data sets. Comparison has been made with some existing parametric software reliability models as well as some neural network (Elman net and TDNN) based SRGM. The results computed shows that the proposed approach outperformed the other existing parametric and neural network based software reliability models with a reasonably good predictive accuracy.