2010年青海玉树7.1级地震发生的构造背景及其动力学分析

为了解2010年4月14日青海玉树7.1级地震活动背景和构造背景,探讨其发震的动力学过程,综合历史和现代地震资料,通过对玉树地震发震前的青藏高原东部地震活动特征分析,探讨了地震活动的大尺度时-空图像与玉树地震孕育发生的关系,研究其发震构造、震源机制解、余震分布和余震序列特征,从而综合探讨玉树地震发生的动力学背景和过程.结果表明,玉树地震的发生不是一个偶然事件,而是地震活动和构造运动的必然结果,是地震孕育和地球动力学过程的必然表现.     

华南地区弥散地震活动的评价方法与结果

根据华南地区现今地球动力学环境、新构造特征、发震构造模型、第四纪构造活动、地球物理场等方面的差异,通过具体的实例,有针对性地论述了弥散地震区划分的方法,系统地阐述了华南地区弥散地震的评价依据.对于弥散地震区内与已知发震构造无关的最大历史地震,给出了两种情况下确定弥散地震的方法,探讨了总体地震和构造活动水平与弥散地震的关系.华南地区弥散地震活动的评价结果与地球动力学环境特征密切相关,地震构造背景的一致性是进行弥散地震类比的基础.本文除了论述弥散地震活动评价方法之外,还初步给出了华南地震区弥散地震区划分方案和弥散地震评价结果.     

中国华北地区大地震复发周期及迁移特征

以古地震、历史地震和现代地震作为时间域,以华北地区、山西地震带、河北平原地震带和郯庐地震带为单元,分析和研究了华北地区大地震复发周期和迁移特征。在此基础上,讨论了华北地区地震活动的动力学问题、块体框动、地震迁移和地震活动趋势。     

具有动力学含义的强震动态图像预测方法研究

地震空区方法是利用地震活动图像预报地震效果较好的方法,然而单纯通过空区预报地震具有一定的局限性和不确定性。建立具有动力学含义的动态图像预测方法,把空区的形成和演化放在板块运动和构造特征的基础上考虑。通过对华东和华南地区26次5级以上地震的震例分析,给出主震发生与空区、活动断裂位置以及空区与活动断裂位置和走向的关系,并从两个区域的构造差异上给出空区形成和演化规律差异的动力学解释,从而为使用空区预测地震提供物理基础,减少了不确定性。     

汶川地震和九寨沟地震断层作用及动力学过程研究进展——纪念汶川地震十周年

2008年5月12日汶川地震（M_S8.0）发生后,各部门组织开展了一系列汶川地震相关的地学研究,包括国家科技专项"汶川地震断裂带科学钻探"项目.经过十年的持续探究,在地震地质、震源物理、地震实验、地震动力学、深部地球物理和长期监测等方面研究取得了一系列重大突破与重要成果.在汶川地震十周年之际,《地球物理学报》集中在2018年第5期刊发39篇文章作为汶川地震十周年专辑,专辑涵盖了汶川地震和九寨沟地震断层作用与动力学过程以及相关领域的一批最新研究成果.这些工作涉及汶川地震断层作用、地震参数及地震动力学数值模拟、汶川地震前地震活动性与多参数异常、晚第四纪构造与地震活动及其地表作用、青藏高原东部壳幔结构与龙门山断裂带深部构造和九寨沟地震等六方面的研究.本文将从这六个研究方向简要介绍收入本专辑论文的研究工作,呈现地震断层作用及动力学过程等研究成果,为深入认识大地震孕育和发生过程提供重要的基础.     

东亚大陆、 西亚大陆和东地中海地区地震活动性异同的初步综述

本文初步综述了东亚大陆、 西亚大陆和东地中海地震区地震活动性异同。 地震活动性的含义不仅指地震的时空强图像, 也包括地震的构造和动力学背景分析。 结果表明, 总体上东亚大陆、 西亚大陆和东地中海地区的地震活动性和变形, 都和欧亚板块与周边(北美、 太平洋、 菲律宾海、 印度、 阿拉伯和非洲等)板块等相互作用(汇聚、 碰撞、 俯冲和速度)密切相关。 宏观上, 东亚大陆、 西亚大陆和东地中海地区的地震活动性都表现为疏密相间的震中分布图像以及断裂走向的对称性等。 然而, 在这些大陆地震区相关的板块相互作用的边界上以及内部的地震活动、 构造和动力学背景等方面仍存在不少差异。     

中国大陆20世纪以来第五地震活跃期的复杂性及其本质问题

2001年昆仑山口西 8.1 级特大地震后, 几年来地震界对中国大陆地震活动总趋势的判断与地震活动现实出现较大的偏差, 这是为什么？ 该文系统地分析研究了20世纪中国大陆第五地震活跃期的复杂性和特殊性, 并着重探讨研究出现这种复杂性的本质问题和相关的地球动力学因素。     

地震活动的网络拓扑结构和网络动力学行为

为了研究地震活动的时空复杂性,采用地震活动数据构造了一种加权复杂网络模型,并研究了网络的拓扑和边权结构。结果显示,地震加权网络的节点强度分布及边权分布均具有幂律分布特征,网络的含权团簇系数和平均最近邻度显示地震加权网络具有伴随着边权重-拓扑相关性的分等级的组织结构,团簇熵的计算结果表明,大地震的网络拓扑结构更有序。地震加权网络的动力学演化揭示了在大地震前后一段时期的网络拓扑结构表现出明显的异常。这些结果表明,地震活动显现出一种内在相互作用的网络动力学行为。     

巴颜喀拉块体强震活动与2010年玉树7.1级地震的关系

系统地总结分析了巴颜喀拉地块北、东、南边界带的构造特征、各个边界带上的强震活动、部分强震的震源机制解和区域地震活动,从而探讨了2010年玉树7.1级地震发生前巴颜喀拉地块地震活动特征。从2008年玉树地区地震活动变化、巴颜喀拉块体北边界和南边界强震呼应及块体动力学过程进行了地震趋势预测的思考。     

20世纪中国大陆6级以上地震活动图像及其意义

１９００年以来,中国大陆经历了５个地震活跃期和４个地震平静期,活跃期中Ｍｓ≥６．０地震为线性分布和块状分布。平静期中Ｍｓ≥６．０地震为线性分布。线性分布和块状分布形象地展示了每个活动期中作用力的传递方向和途径,以及地震活动区域所受到的严格约束。因此,为进一步探讨中国大陆地震动力学和地震活动区域提供了新的线索。     

Progress in numerical modeling of subducting plate dynamics

The core concerns of plate tectonics theory are the dynamics of subducting plates, which can be studied by integrating multidisciplinary fields such as seismology, mineral physics, rock geochemistry, geological formation studies, sedimentology, and numerical simulations. By establishing a theoretical model and solving it with numerical methods, one can replicate the dynamic effects of a subducting plate, quantifying its evolution and the surface response. Simulations can also explain the observations and experimental results of other disciplines. Therefore, numerical models are among the most important tools for studying the dynamics of subducting plates. This paper provides a review on recent advances in the numerical modeling of subducting plate dynamics. It covers various aspects, namely, the origin of plate tectonics, the initiation process and thermal structure of subducting slab, and the main subduction slab dynamics in the upper mantle, mantle transition zone, and lower mantle. The results of numerical models are based on the theoretical equations of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. To better understand the dynamic progress of subducting plates, the simulation results must be verified in comparisons with the results from natural observations by geology, geophysics and geochemistry. With the substantial increase in computing power and continuous improvement of simulation methods, numerical models will become a more accurate and efficient means of studying the frontier issues of Earth sciences, including subducting plate dynamics.     

Dynamic subduction process of local plate revealed by Ibaraki earthquake sequence of 1982 in Japan

IntroductionIt has been brought forward in the plate tectonic theory that the global lithosphere consists of a number of active blocks floating above the asthenosphere since 1960s. And from then on, the kinematics and dynamics of lithosphere have been the frontal subjects in the contemporary geoscientific study. The Pacific Plate is the biggest one covering one fourth of the earth surface. Situated in the Eurasia Plate, our country is affected directly by the compression from the Pacific Pl…     

Stress transfer and nonlinear stress accumulation at subduction-type plate boundaries — Application to the Aleutians

A study of stress accumulation in seismic gaps and of stress transfer along linear plate boundaries is presented. Time-dependent reloading of plate boundaries following seismic ruptures is modeled by a modified Elsasser model of a coupled lithosphere/asthenosphere plate system. This model is applied to study a series of large earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands and the Alaska peninsula in 1938–1965. It is found that the Rat Island earthquake and the 1948 earthquake in the central Aleutians are likely to have been triggered by adjacent ruptures, in the sense that their occurrence would have come at a later time had their neighboring segments not been ruptured. Stresses in the Unalaska Gap and the Shumagin gap are at a relatively high level and these segments of the plate boundary may be expected to rupture in the near future. In general, in the ten years (about 16% of the earthquake cycle for the Aleutians) following an earthquake, the stress recovery in the rupture zone is highly nonlinear, resulting in a much more rapid stress accumulation than the linear case. Even at a later stage of an earthquake cycle, adjacent ruptures can cause an acceleration of loading rate in addition to the coseismic stress jump. A good example is the influence of the 1964 Alaska earthquake on the 1938 rupture zone. A general conclusion of this work is that long term earthquake prediction models must take into account the nonlinear stress accumulation behavior in seismic gaps. Also, we have shown the interaction of adjacent plate boundary segments, which suggests that some large earthquakes may have been triggered by nearby ruptures.     

Shear stress on the base of a lithospheric plate

This paper is a review of the theoretical and observational evidence bearing on the magnitude of the shear stress which acts on the base of a lithospheric plate. Estimates based on the viscosity of the upper mantle do not yield useful limits. Arguments based on the thermal stability of the upper mantle indicate that the basal shear stress is no larger than a few bars. An indirect measurement of the rheology and shear stress can be made by studying the diffusion of stress and displacement following a large decoupling earthquake. When applied to the 1965 Rat Island Earthquake, this method yields a basal shear stress of about 2 bars. These results indicate that for small plates the forces produced by basal shear stress are probably small in comparison with forces acting on plate boundaries. To a first approximation, the smaller plates act as if they were decoupled from the mantle below. These stress estimates lead to a model in which the motion of the smaller lithospheric plates is governed almost entirely by the forces acting on their edges. Forces due to basal shear stress may be comparable to forces acting on the edges of large lithospheric plates. Thus, complete decoupling may not be a good approximation for such plates.     

Comparison of web plate numerical models for self‐centering steel plate shear walls

Previous research has shown that self‐centering steel plate shear walls (SC‐SPSWs) are capable of achieving enhanced seismic performance at multiple hazard levels, including recentering following design‐level earthquakes. When modeling SC‐SPSWs numerically, these studies considered an idealized tension‐only steel plate shear wall (SPSW) web plate behavior. Research has shown that web plate behavior is more complex than predicted by the idealized model, and web plates can provide more strength, stiffness, and energy dissipation than predicted by the idealized model. The idealized model of web plate behavior is used widely in SPSW numerical models where the moment‐resisting boundary frame provides supplemental hysteretic damping and stiffness; however, in SC‐SPSWs, where the post‐tensioned boundary frame is designed to remain elastic during an earthquake, accounting for the more complex web plate behavior can have a significant impact on seismic performance estimates from numerical simulation. This paper presents different methods for modeling SC‐SPSWs. Responses from these models are compared with experimental results. A simple modification of the tension‐only model, referred to as the tension‐compression strip model, is shown to provide a reasonable approximation of SC‐SPSW behavior. Results from nonlinear response history analyses of SC‐SPSWs with the tension‐only and tension‐compression web plate models are compared to assess how the approximation of web plate behavior affects SC‐SPSW seismic performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

印度—澳大利亚板块边界带强震活动与中国大陆西部强震活动的相关性研究

2001年以来全球8级地震呈现新的活跃态势, 7.5级以上强震在空间上呈优势分布, 强震相对集中在西太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带, 印度—澳大利亚板块的汇聚边界带上尤为突出。 2009年全球发生20次7级以上强震, 其中有15次发生在印度—澳大利亚板块, 近期仍具有延续全球强震活动优势空间分布。 本文在以往关于印度—澳大利亚板块运动方式以及相关地震活动研究基础上, 将印度—澳大利亚板块分为印度亚板块和澳大利亚板块, 依据强震应变释放资料分析中国大陆西部、 印度板块边界和澳大利亚板块边界之间强震活动可能的相关性。 结果表明, 中国大陆西部地区与印度板块边界的强震活动有较好的相关性, 印度板块边界与澳大利亚板块边界活动也有一定的相关性。 1914—1993年时段的中国大陆西部地区5个完整强震释放时段与印度板块地震活动表现出很强的相关性, 且中国大陆西部地区强震活动相对印度板块边界地区滞后0~5年, 这对于中国大陆地区强震趋势跟踪具有一定的参考意义。     

Nonuniform and Unsteady Sliding of a Plate Boundary in a Great Earthquake Cycle: A Numerical Simulation Using a Laboratory-derived Friction Law

—A numerical study is conducted to simulate complicated sliding behavior and earthquake activity on a subducting plate boundary. A 2-D model of a uniform elastic half-space with a semi-infinite thrust fault is set up, and the frictional stress prescribed by a rate- and state-dependent friction law is assumed to act on the plate boundary fault. Spatial nonuniformity of friction parameters representing rate-dependence of friction and of slip-dependence of friction are introduced in the model to obtain complicated sliding behavior in the numerical simulation. Analogs of great earthquakes that break the entire seismogenic plate boundary repeatedly occur at a constant time interval. Smaller events of seismic or aseismic sliding occur during a great earthquake cycle. Regions of rate-strengthening of friction and of a large characteristic distance in slip-dependence of friction behave as barriers or asperities. Rupture propagation is often arrested in such a region and a great earthquake occurs later when the region is broken. The variety of earthquake activity observed in many regions along real plate boundaries may be explained by similar nonuniformity in friction parameters. Conversely, the friction parameters on plate boundaries might be estimated from comparison of theoretical simulations with observations of earthquake activity. Simulation results indicate that spatiotemporal variation in stress due to aseismic sliding may play an important part in generating earthquakes.     

Determination of Euler parameters of Philippine Sea plate and the inferences

Euler vectors of 12 plates, including Philippine Sea plate (PH), relative to a randomly fixed Pacific plate(PA) were determined by inverting the 1122 data from NUVEL-1 global plate motion model, earthquake slip vectors along Philippine Sea plate boundary, and GPS observed velocities. Euler vectors of Philippine Sea plate relative to adjacent plates are also gained. Our results are well consistent with observed data and can satisfy the geological and geophysical constraints along the Caroline(CR)-PH and PA-CR boundaries. Deformation of Philippine Sea plate is also discussed by using the plate motion Euler parameters.     

Statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions

We have investigated the application of the F-ratio test, a standard statistical technique, to the results of relative plate motion inversions. The method tests whether the improvement in fit of the model to the data resulting from the addition of another plate to the model is greater than that expected purely by chance. This approach appears to be useful in determining whether additional plate boundaries are justified. We confirm previous results favoring separate North American and South American plates with a boundary located between 30°N and the equator. Using Chase's global relative motion data, we show that in addition to separate West African and Somalian plates, separate West Indian and Australian plates, with a best-fitting boundary between 70°E and 90°E, can be resolved. These results are generally consistent with the observation that the Indian plate's internal deformation extends somewhat westward of the Ninetyeast Ridge. The relative motion pole is similar to Minster and Jordan's and predicts the NW-SE compression observed in earthquake mechanisms near the Ninetyeast Ridge.     

Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: Seismic potential for major boundaries

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long- and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps.In detail, however, the distribution of large shallow earthquakes along convergent plate margins is not always consistent with a simple model derived from plate tectonics. Certain plate boundaries, for example, appear in the long term to be nearly aseismic with respect to large earthquakes. The identification of specific tectonic regimes, as defined by dip of the inclined seismic zone, the presence or absence of aseismic ridges and seamounts on the downgoing lithospheric plate, the age contrast between the overthrust and underthrust plates, and the presence or absence of back-arc spreading, have led to a refinement in the application of plate tectonic theory to the evaluation of seismic potential.The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best.The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These categories range from what we consider high to low potential for being the site of large earthquakes during that period of time. Categories 1, 2 and 6 define a time-dependent potential based on the amount of time elapsed since the last large earthquake. The remaining categories, 3, 4, and 5, are used for areas that have ambiguous histories for large earthquakes; their seismic potential is inferred from various tectonic criteria. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified.Several of the segments of major plate boundaries that are assigned the highest potential, i.e., category 1, are located along continental margins, adjacent to centers of population. Some of them are hundreds of kilometers long. High priority should be given to instrumenting and studying several of these major seismic gaps since many are now poorly instrumented. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning prorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Contribution No. 2906.