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核电厂传统人员可靠性分析方法中引入班组因素的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在核电厂等大型复杂系统中,人员干预行为通常以班组的协作来完成,而目前核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)采用的以人的失误率预测技术(THERP)和人的认知可靠性(HCR)方法为代表的人员可靠性分析(HRA)方法主要关注对个人绩效的影响,它们在评估核电厂主控室班组绩效时存在一定局限。本文定义一种新的绩效形成因子“班组绩效形成因子(TPSF)”,并将其合理地引入THERP和HCR方法的定量化体系中,使它们可在一定程度上体现班组环境对人员绩效的影响。文章提出了TPSF等级的评价方法及将其引入THERP和HCR方法的定性实施框架。结果证明,合理地将班组因素引入传统HRA方法能改进它们对班组环境下人员绩效模化的合理性。 相似文献
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人因可靠性分析(HRA)是概率安全评价(PSA)的重要组成部分。秦山第三核电厂(简称秦山三核)初版HRA由加拿大原子能公司(AECL)完成,其采用的HRA方法为简化的ASEP HRA。为获得更符合秦山三核运行状态实际的HRA结论,本工作对秦山三核重新进行了HRA分析,并增加了事件间的相关性分析。在对国际HRA方法比较研究的基础上,秦山三核HRA采用了规范化的THERP+HCR分析方法。新分析所得数据与AECL数据比较分析结果表明,新分析与AECL的分析判断基本一致,但在合理性和准确性方面较原分析有明显提高,分析结论更符合秦山三核实际。 相似文献
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人员可靠性分析(HRA)作为核电厂概率安全评价(PSA)中的重要组成要素,一直是影响PSA分析质量和风险见解的关键内容。目前业界中已有的HRA方法众多,不同的HRA方法各有优缺点且存在基础数据过老的问题,为此,美国核管理委员会联合HRA领域权威专家开发了一种综合性的HRA方法--人员失误事件综合分析系统,简称IDHEAS方法。本文对IDHEAS方法进行了系统性的研究,对相关实施流程和要点进行归纳,并运用IDHEAS方法进行了实例分析。理论研究和实例分析表明,IDHEAS方法在工程应用上具备可操作性,能较好弥补其他HRA方法的局限性。同时,IDHEAS方法亦存在对时间参数不敏感、部分分析内容依赖于分析人员经验等特点。 相似文献
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ASEP HRA是一种传统人员的可靠性分析方法,是THERP(人的失误预测技术)的简化版本。但使用THERP方法进行人因可靠性分析需要的资源过多,人力、物力投入庞大。而ASEPHRA方法在THERP的基础上规范了操作步骤和相关注意事项,很大程度上避免了不同的分析人员的分析差异较大的问题,虽然较为保守但更加便于工程应用。本文介绍了使用ASEP方法分析和处理秦山二期核电厂的始发事件前人因事件的过程,并以PTR水箱传感器标定为例进行分析得出定性和定量化分析结论。 相似文献
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二级概率安全分析(PSA)可用来定量评估严重事故风险,是评价严重事故管理的良好工具。通过研究二级PSA应用于严重事故管理的一般方法与流程,以某二代改进型核电厂二级PSA模型为例,对严重事故管理导则中“一回路卸压”和“一回路应急注水”两个关键操作进行了定量评价。评价表明进入严重事故管理导则后立即执行“一回路卸压操作”可大幅度降低大量放射性释放风险,执行“一回路应急注水操作”对于降低进程较慢的事故序列大量放射性释放风险贡献较大。研究表明国内核电厂针对严重事故的管理还有进一步提升空间。 相似文献
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大型干式安全壳严重事故下超压失效概率研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
核电厂安全壳是防止放射性产物释放到环境中的最后一道屏障,严重事故下安全壳压力可能超过设计压力,在超压情况下安全壳的完整性及失效概率的研究,是严重事故重点关注的内容,也是二级PSA安全壳失效和源项分析定量化的基础。结合美国SANDIA实验室安全壳完整性试验及分析的情况,对AP1000、EPR核电厂安全壳超压失效概率进行了分析,重点对国内典型二代改进型核电厂的安全壳超压失效概率进行了建模计算,相关计算方法和结果可为相关电厂实施严重事故管理和二级PSA提供参考。 相似文献
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ZHOU Tao SUN Canhui LI Zhenyang WANG Zenghui Institute of Nuclear Thermal-Hydraulic Safety St ardization North China Electricity Power University Beijing China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《核技术(英文版)》2011,(5):316-320
Human factor errors in probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) of a nuclear power plant(NPP) can be prevented using thermal comfort analysis.In this paper,the THERP+HCR model is modified by using PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) and PPD(Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied) index system,so as to obtain the operator cognitive reliability,and to reflect and analyze human perception,thermal comfort status,and cognitive ability in a specific NPP environment.The mechanism of human factors in the PSA is analyzed by operators of skill,rule and knowledge types.The THERP+HCR model modified by thermal comfort theory can reflect the conditions in actual environment,and optimize reliability analysis of human factors.Improving human thermal comfort for different types of operators reduces adverse factors due to human errors,and provides a safe and optimum decision-making for NPPs. 相似文献
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M. L. Ang K. Peers E. Kersting W. Fassmann H. Tuomisto P. Lundstrm M. Helle V. Gustavsson P. Jacobsson 《Nuclear Engineering and Design》2001,209(1-3)
This study is concerned with the further development of integrated models for the assessment of existing and potential severe accident management (SAM) measures. This paper provides a brief summary of these models, based on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods and the Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM) approach, and their application to a number of case studies spanning both preventive and mitigative accident management regimes. In the course of this study it became evident that the starting point to guide the selection of methodology and any further improvement is the intended application. Accordingly, such features as the type and area of application and the confidence requirement are addressed in this project. The application of an integrated ROAAM approach led to the implementation, at the Loviisa NPP, of a hydrogen mitigation strategy, which requires substantial plant modifications. A revised level 2 PSA model was applied to the Sizewell B NPP to assess the feasibility of the in-vessel retention strategy. Similarly the application of PSA based models was extended to the Barseback and Ringhals 2 NPPs to improve the emergency operating procedures, notably actions related to manual operations. A human reliability analysis based on the Human Cognitive Reliability (HCR) and Technique For Human Error Rate (THERP) models was applied to a case study addressing secondary and primary bleed and feed procedures. Some aspects pertinent to the quantification of severe accident phenomena were further examined in this project. A comparison of the applications of PSA based approach and ROAAM to two severe accident issues, viz hydrogen combustion and in-vessel retention, was made. A general conclusion is that there is no requirement for further major development of the PSA and ROAAM methodologies in the modelling of SAM strategies for a variety of applications as far as the technical aspects are concerned. As is demonstrated in this project, the generic modelling framework was refined to enable a number of applications. Some recommendations have also been made regarding the applicability of these approaches to existing operating reactors and future reactors. The need for further research and development in the area of human reliability quantification was identified. 相似文献