浙江省新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情时空演化与影响因素分析

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情全球暴发，严重危害人们身体健康，阻碍经济快速发展。基于地理学视角对重点地域时空传播模式进行解析，有助于疫情防治。鉴于此，以浙江省为研究区，借助多源时空数据，综合运用文本分析、数理统计、空间回归分析等方法，解析确诊病例的社会人口学特征与疫情的时空演化过程，进而分析其影响因素。结果表明：（1）确诊病例年龄分布跨度较大，呈“中段大，两端小”的正态分布格局。（2）在时间上，疫情发展演化可分为初发期、暴发突增期、稳步下降期、内部稳定期、境外输入期5个时期；新增确诊病例通报时间与发病时间间隔集中于0~6 d，外地病例通报时间与发病时间间隔长于本地病例，且外地病例多发病于离开原住地当天；日发病人数性别构成比无明显差异，年龄构成比具有阶段性特征。（3）在空间上，确诊病例呈“东南-西北”走向，演变趋势呈“单一散发”向“多地群发”再至“重点输入”演变，具有“高-高”“高-低”集聚特征；确诊病例路径迁移呈现明显的核心-边缘结构，迁出地以武汉市为核心的首位流显著。（4）老龄人口比、人均GDP、第三产业占比、规模以上工业企业数、与武汉市的空间距离是影响疫情分布的主导因素。最后，提出了针对性的防控建议，指出了研究中的不足与未来努力的方向。

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of COVID-19 epidemic in Zhejiang province

The global outbreak of novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic has seriously endangered people's health and hindered rapid economic development. Geographic analysis of spatial and temporal transmission patterns in key regions can help prevent and control the epidemic. This paper takes Zhejiang province as the research area.With the help of POI data,the methods such as textual analysis,mathematical statistics,and spatial regression analysis are used to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution of the epidemic,and then analyze its influencing factors.The results show that: (1) The age distribution of confirmed cases spanned a wide range,showing normal distribution of "large in the middle and small at both ends." (2) The epidemic period is divided into five stages: the initial period,the outbreak period,the steady decline period,the internal stable period,and the oversea input period.The interval between the onset time and announcing a confirmed case was mostly 0-6 d,and the time interval of non-local cases is longer than that of local cases,and the onset of most of the non-local cases occur on the day the patients leave their original place.There was no significant gender difference in the proportion of daily incidence,and the proportion of age had stage features. (3) The spatial distribution aligned in the direction of "Southeast-Northwest", the evolution trend developed from "single place distribution" to "multi-area cluster cases" and then to "key input" evolution,with "high-high" "high-low" clustering characteristics; The migration path of confirmed cases presented an obvious core-edge structure,and the first significant flow was from the center of Wuhan. (4) By analyzing the factors affecting the distribution of the epidemic,it is found that the ratio of the elderly population,per capita GDP,the proportion of the tertiary industry,the number of industries above the scale,and the distance from Wuhan were the dominant factors. Finally,several suggestions on targeted prevention and control measures are made,and the weaknesses of the study and future directions of efforts are pointed out.