基于高分辨率数值产品的浙中雷电潜势预报分析

综合考虑预报因子的季节特征和时域特征，基于高分辨率数值产品（T639）的二次计算，选取对流有效位能CAPE、K指数、沙氏指数SI等对区域性雷电有较好的指示意义的若干对流参数和物理量，融合消空法和多格点指标叠加法，开发了用于浙江中部金华地区3～9月未来24 h的雷电潜势预报方法，试报效果良好，并且对区域性雷雨大风和冰雹有较好的指示意义，自动化运行后具有重要的业务参考价值. 

Analysis on the potential forecast of thunderstorm based on high resolution numerical model in the middle of Zhejiang Province

Based on the secondary calculation of high resolution numerical model, we took the seasonal characteristics and time domain characteristics of forecast factors into account. We used the wise decreasing FAR method and grid point index composition method to select some convection parameters and physical quantities such as CAPE,K, SI, etc which had a good indication on thunderstorm. Our research was aimed to find a prediction technique that could forecast the potential of thunderstorm in the next 24 h between Mar. to Sept. at Jinhua in the middle of ZhejiangProvince, which had a good effect. The method works well at thunderstorm gale and hall. The data are worthy to be considered when it has been automated.