明代长江流域人口大量死亡事件时空特征及原因分析

通过检索古籍文献，整理了明代（公元1368—1644年）长江流域人口大量死亡事件（mass death events，MDE）10 a尺度的频次与县次序列，利用自然断点分级法、空间分析法等分析了MDE的时空特征及发生原因。结果表明：276 a间，长江流域有158 a发生MDE，明代后期发生频次和影响规模最大；季节上，表现为夏季多发（44.3%），春、秋季次之；空间上，集中分布于长江中下游、尤其是长江三角洲地区，且呈从各省交界处向各省中心扩散的趋势。“未记录原因的饥荒”和“旱灾+其他灾害-饥荒”是造成明代长江流域MDE的主要原因。气候冷干期发生频次多，影响范围广，暖湿期相反，与温度和湿度呈显著负相关；人口规模和社会脆弱程度是主要的社会影响因素。在人口规模大和社会脆弱的明代后期，MDE发生频次高，波及范围广，是气候变化与社会因素共同作用的结果。

Analysis on the temporal and spatial characteristics and causes of mass deaths in the Yangtze River Basin in the Ming dynasty.

By retrieving ancient books and documents, the frequency and county sequence of the mass death events occured in the Yangtze River Basin in the Ming dynasty on the 10 a scale were sorted out, and their temporal and spatial characteristics and causes were analyzed using correlation analysis, natural breakpoint method and space analysis. The results show that during the 276 years of the Ming dynasty, there were a large number of deaths in the Yangtze River Basin in 158 years, the frequency and scale of such events reached the maximum in the later period; if sorted by season, it occurred mostly in summer (44.3%), followed by spring and autumn; if the spatial distribution of the events is concerned, it was concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, and it tended to expand from the junction of the provinces to the center. It is found that "undocumented cause of famine" and "drought + other disasters-famine" were the main reasons for the large number of deaths in the Yangtze River Basin in the Ming dynasty. The cold-dry period had a large number of occurrences with a wide range of effects. On the contrary, the warm-humid period had a significant negative correlation with temperature and humidity. Population size and social vulnerability were also the main social reasons. In particular, in the late period of Ming dynasty, the population was large and the society was fragile, a large number of deaths occurred frequently and spread widely, which was due to the combined effect of climate change and social factors.