近５０年辽西北半干旱区降水变化与 花生水分适宜性评价

辽宁省花生优势区域的拓展及转移受多种因素制约，且以降水量的制约最为明显。为探讨辽宁花生产业的区域布局及拓展空间，以阜新近50 a的降水变化为例，采用降水保证率、降水变率、土壤水分蒸发量及土壤水分盈亏特征等参数分析辽西北降水规律，并进行花生水分适宜性评价。分析表明，“十年九旱”仍是辽西北基本气候特征，且这种特征可能有继续恶化趋势。该区域4-5月的降水保证率偏低，土壤缺水量达100 mm ，冬春季的降水变率大于110％，发生春旱的机率最大，对花生春播极其不利。而从花生生长季节水分分析，辽西北的降水条件基本能够满足花生生长对水分的需求，且花生生物产量 y与降水量x间显著服从于方程y＝ a＋ bx ，相关系数 r＝0．999。从区域可持续发展角度出发，辽西北花生生产需着重攻克避旱播种、生态防风蚀和避免与粮争地等三个方面的技术难点。

Precipitation changes in recent 50 years and evaluation for water suitability of peanut in semi-arid area of northwest Liaoning Province

The expansion and shift of advantageous production region of peanut in Liaoning Province are restrained by many factors, in which the influence of precipitation is most considerable. Based on the precipitation changes in Fuxin in recent 50 years, the precipitation patterns were analyzed by using guaranteed rate and variability of precipitation, soil moisture evaporation and soil water budget, and the water suitability of peanut was evaluated in northwest Liaoning. It is shown that the frequent draught is still the basic climatic characteristic in northwest Liaoning, and there is a trend that it will continue to worsen. During April and May, the guaranteed rate of precipitation is low, and the deficiency of soil moisture is as high as 100 mm. The variability of precipitation in winter and spring is more than 110%, and the probability of spring draught is much high, which is unbeneficial to the seeding of peanut. From the viewpoint of whole growth period, the precipitation can basically meet the water requirement of peanut. The relation between biomass yield (y) and precipitation (x) follows the equation y=a+bx, and the correlation coefficient r=0.999. In order to realize regional sustainable development of peanut production, attentions should paid to three technical difficulties: seeding at drought avoidance, ecological resistance of wind erosion, and avoidance of competition for land with grain crops.