深圳农民工集聚空间的演变特征及影响机制

以2000年、2010年人口普查数据和2008年珠江三角洲外来农民工问卷调查为基础数据,以街道为单元,运用数理统计分析和GIS空间技术揭示深圳农民工集聚空间演变特征及其影响机制。研究发现：① 深圳农民工以青年为主体,具有受教育水平高、职业转型模式多样、留城意愿较低和社会空间分异度较高等特征。② 农民工规模呈现西北部最高、中部其次、沿海最低的地带性分布规律,农民工高密度地区主要分布在工业集中区和城市中心区;热点区（高聚集区）集中在西部和北部的宝安区和龙华新区,冷点区（低聚集区）则分布在南部的中心城区,与传统制造业布局相一致。③ 农民工空间演化格局相对稳定,全市农民工分布重心逐步向西北偏移;全市农民工集中度略有上升,热点区基本稳定,冷点区有所扩大;农民工人口密度高值由“1个高中心+1个外围中心”逐步演变为“1个高中心+2个外围中心”;农民工空间变化差异较大,增长演变类型呈多样化。④ 深圳农民工分布的时空演变特征与常住人口存在较为明显的差异。⑤ 农民工集聚空间的分布演变受住房因素、就业机会、交通条件、社会网络、城市规划共同影响。

The Characters and Influencing Mechanism of Spatial-temporal Variations of Migrant Workers in Shenzhen

Based on the fifth and sixth census and the question survey of migrant workers in the Zhujiang River Delta in 2008, and using the methods of mathematical statistics analysis and GIS spatial analysis, this article attempts to bring out a systematic understanding of migrant workers in Shenzhen, including their social-economical features, spatial distributions, spatio-temporal changes and the factors that lie behind such changes. And five discoveries have been made through this study. First, the majority of the migrant workers in Shenzhen are well-educated youngsters with diverse vocational transformations, low willingness to live there as a city dweller, and high level of segregation. Second, the distribution of migrant workers in the city is characterized by a high degree of regularity. The density is highest in the northwest part, diminishes in the central area, and is lowest in the coastal regions. High density regions are found to be around the downtown areas and industrial concentration areas. “Hot zones”, i.e. high density areas, lie mainly in the district of Baoan and Longhua, which are in the western and northern part of the city respectively, while “cold zones”, i.e. low density areas, are around the downtown areas in the southern part of the city, which is also the place where traditional manufacturing industries are located. Third, the change in the spatial distribution of migrant workers has been stable over the years. In addition to the slight growth in their density among the whole population of the city, their concentration has been shifting towards the northwestern part. While “hot zones” remain almost unchanged, “cold zones” have extended a little bit. The spatial distribution of their population density is changed from “1 high center + 1 peripheral center” to “1 high center + 2 peripheral centers”. In so far as different blocks are concerned, the change in their spatial distribution, together with the type of growth in their total number, varies greatly. Fourth, migrant workers differ sharply from permanent residents in the change of temporal and spatial distribution. Fifth, the factors that lie behind such changes, according to the order of importance, are housing and employment, traffic conditions and social networks, and urban planning.