基于贝叶斯网络的智能电能表可靠性预计的研究

可靠性作为智能电能表正常工作的重要指标,是现阶段电能质量研究的重点问题,本文针对智能电能表可靠性预计的重要性为切入点,讨论电能表可靠性的研究过程,以贝叶斯网络为依据,分析了传统的贝叶斯网络的可靠性预计双向推理的方法,并且同时结合故障树的模型理论,在可靠性研究的求解过程中引入了新的桶消元法对贝叶斯网络进行计算简化,从而快速得到可靠性预计结果。最后通过本文提出的方法,应用于电能表可靠性预计实例当中,计算的结果满足GJB/Z299C-2006标准在误差范围内的要求,从而证明,该方法简化预计过程的同时准确的预计出可靠性结果。

Research on Reliability prediction of Smart Energy Meter based on Bayesian Network

Reliability as an important indicator of the normal work of smart energy meter is the focus of power quality research at this stage of the problem, this paper aims at the importance of intelligent energy meter reliability as the starting point to discuss the reliability of the energy meter research process to Bayesian The traditional method of Bayesian network"s reliability prediction bi-direction reasoning is analyzed and a new bucket elimination method is introduced to solve the Bayesian network in the process of solving the reliability problem. At the same time, based on the model theory of the fault tree, Network to simplify the calculation, and thus quickly get the reliability of the expected results. Finally, the method proposed in this paper is applied to the case of reliability prediction of electric energy meters. The results of the calculation meet the requirement of GJB / Z299C-2006 standard in the error range, which proves that the method can simplify the prediction process and accurately predict the reliability at the same time. result.