成都区域气象中心业务数值预报产品检验分析

依据国家气象中心T213、T639全球模式、成都区域中心实时运行的AREM、GRAPES和MM5中尺度数值模式预报结果,对2008年5~9月进行了日降水量和2m温度检验。结果表明:(1)模式对昆明、南京、广州、长沙、北京和郑州温度预报优于温江、兰州和拉萨站,其中拉萨站温度预报与实况偏差最大,即模式对我国中部及南部地区温度预报与实况近似程度高于西部地区。(2)东部地区中雨及以上量级降水评分高于西部,西部4个城市中以昆明站评分最高,反映模式对我国西部城市降雨预报能力偏弱。 

The Examination and Analysis of Operational Numerical Forecast Products in Chengdu Regional Meteorological Center

Accordance with the National Meteorological Center, T213, T639 global model, and Chengdu Regional Center for real-time operation of the AREM, GRAPES, and mesoscale numerical model MM5 forecast results, in 2008 carried out from May to September daily precipitation and 2m temperature testing.The results are as follows:(1) the forecast temperature in Kunming, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Changsha, Beijing and Zhengzhou is better than Wenjiang, Lanzhou and Lasa stations, the temperature in Lasa station has the greatest deviation to observation, the temperature prediction by models in central and southern areas of china is better than in the western region. (2) Moderate rain and higher order of magnitude precipitation score values of models higher than that of the western areas, Kunming which is one of the four cities in western station has the highest TS score value, reflecting models have weak prediction capabilities to China's western city.