基于风险分析确定水库汛限水位动态控制约束域研究

基于预报预泄原理推求水库汛限水位动态控制约束域,确定上限的依据是在洪水来临前将水位降低至固定(或者分期)汛限水位以下,确定下限的依据是在洪水退水阶段将水位回充至固定(或者分期)汛限水位以上.为充分考虑来水起涨、退水过程的不确定性,采用实测资料进行起涨阶段预泄和退水阶段回充调度,分别推求预泄末和回充末水位的经验频率分布,由此可建立风险分析模型,从理论上解决水库防洪标准不降低和退水阶段能回充等问题.以三峡水库正常运行期为背景,推求了主汛期汛限水位动态控制约束域的上、下限值,结果表明:即使不考虑水文预报误差,基于风险分析的动态控制域上限较采用预泄能力约束法上限低、下限高,提出的方法完善了基于预报预泄原理确定水库汛限水位动态控制域的理论.

Deriving the Interval of Reservoir Dynamic Flood Control Water Level Based on Risk Analysis

This paper was focused on deriving the interval of reservoir dynamic flood control water level based on risk analysis. By using the flood forecasting, the end water level of pre-discharge operation was described as probability, the risk corresponding with the flood protection standards was estimated, and the refilling probability was evaluated. Subjected to the constraints without increased the flood risks and decreased the benefits uses, the interval of dynamic flood control level was estimated and evaluat...