1980--2009年中国经济增长对化石能源消耗的依赖关系

随着中国经济的发展，我国高化石能源消耗问题也越来越突出。计算了1980--2009年中国人均化石能源足迹，并将其与人均GDP联系起来进行研究，发现在这30年中我国人均化石能源消耗和人均GDP都呈现逐步增长趋势，在用E—G两步法进行协整检验的过程中发现两者存在长期稳定的均衡关系；采用格兰杰因果检验进行进一步的验证分析发现，我国人均化石能源足迹和人均GDP之间互为因果关系，进一步说明我国经济发展对能源消耗尤其是化石能源消耗具有依赖性，且经济发展会进一步刺激化石能源使用的增加。因此，采取节能降耗措施应从调整产业结构和能源消费结构入手，在降低能耗期间我国会出现经济增长放缓的现象。

Dependence Study between Economic Development and Fossil Energy Consumption from 1980--2009

With the development of Chinese economy, high fossil energy consumption was becoming more and more serious. This paper calculated per capita fossil energy footprint from 1980 to 2009. Based on per capita GDP and that,this paper found that both of them tend to increase during these thirty years. By using E - G cointegration test, the research discovered that per capita fossil energy footprint and per capita GDP had a stable equilibri- um relationship in the long period. At last, the research discovered that a cause - and - effect relationship existed between per capita fossil energy footprint and per capita GDP through Grager Causality Tests. Chinese economic development was strongly dependent on the energy consumption, espe- cially on the fossil energy consumption, and the increased enonomic development would also situmulate the fossil energy consumption. Therefore, taking the method of energy conservation should be started with adjusting the industial structure and energy consumption structure. And during the period, the phenomenon that economic growth slowed down may rise.