| 基于相似日的节假日燃气短期负荷预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 苗艳姝,段常贵.基于相似日的节假日燃气短期负荷预测[J].煤气与热力,2006,26(5):10-14. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 苗艳姝 段常贵 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨工业大学,市政环境工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150090 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 分析了燃气负荷的形状相似、趋势相似和特征相似,根据节假日燃气负荷的特点,提出基于相似日的节假日负荷预测方法。以前趋势相似性和日特征相似性为原则,在燃气负荷历史数据库中选择若干相似日,以相似日作为样本采用神经网络方法进行预测。实例证明该方法具有良好的预测精度。
|
| 关 键 词： | 城市燃气负荷 短期负荷预测 相似性 相似日 节假日 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-4416（2006）05-0010-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-272005-11-21 |
Short-term Gas Load Prediction in Holidays Based on Similar Days |
| |
| MIAO Yan-shu,DUAN Chang-gui.Short-term Gas Load Prediction in Holidays Based on Similar Days[J].Gas & Heat,2006,26(5):10-14. |
| |
| Authors: | MIAO Yan-shu DUAN Chang-gui |
| |
| Abstract: | The shape similarity,trend similarity and characteristic similarity of gas load are analyzed,and according to the feature of gas load in holidays,a method of gas load prediction in holidays based on similar days is put forward.Taking the former trend similarity and daily characteristic similarity as principle,some similar days are selected in the history database of gas load,and taking the similar days as sample,the prediction is made with the neural network.The example demonstrates that this method has better prediction precision. |
| |
| Keywords: | city gas load short-term load prediction similarity similar day holiday |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
