基于风险场的区域突发性环境风险评价方法研究

在大尺度空间,风险源、风险受体和风险传播途径的多样性和相互作用的复杂性是区域环境风险评价的难点.同时,现有评价方法很少关注风险因子的释放规律,释放后在空间中的分布格局,以及风险受体受到损害的途径和程度.本文应用风险场理论,分析描述风险场形成和对风险受体作用的机制.结合南京化工园区实例进行环境风险源识别,采用集对分析等方法构建了各风险源产生的环境风险场,再分析处于风险场中的环境风险受体,最后得到区域环境风险水平分布,同时将其划分为5个等级.评价结果显示,位于风险源周围或河道下游的人口稠密、生态环境敏感地区环境风险值R≥6,风险水平处于极高、高等级,与园区现状具有较好的一致性.建议依据环境风险水平的分级、分类结果建立起以预防为主的环境风险管理体系.

Method of regional acute environmental risk assessment based on risk field

In large geographic area, multiple sources release multiple stressors and affect multiple habits and endpoints. The diversity and complexity of the interaction between sources, stressors and habits is one of the challenges of Regional Environmental Risk Assessment(RERA) for large geographic areas. Meanwhile, the existed assessment methods do not pay enough attention on the release rules of risk factors, the distribution patterns of risk factors in space, and the path and the degree of the damage on receptors caused by risk factors. The theory of Risk Field(RF) was applied to analyze the generation mechanism of risk field and the influence mechanism on risk receptors. The environmental risk of Nanjing Chemical Industry Park was investigated as the example. At first, the environmental risk sources were identified. Then, methods, like Set Pair Analysis, were used to construct environmental risk field of various risk sources. After analyzing the environmental risk receptors in the risk field, the distribution of regional environmental risk level could be obtained. The densely populated areas or ecologically sensitive areas located around the risk sources or the river downstream had higher environmental risk level(environmental risk value R≥6), which was in good agreement with the actual situation. This paper suggested establishing the prevention-oriented environmental risk management system based on the classification results of the environmental risks.