重庆市产业结构与就业结构变动关系的实证研究

在经济发展过程中,就业结构与产业结构之间存在着极为密切的互动关系。本文在分析改革开放以来重庆市产业结构与就业结构演变趋势的基础上,运用协整检验和广义最小二乘法测算了产业结构对就业结构的影响程度,计算了产业结构与就业结构的偏离度。研究发现,重庆市第一产业产值与其就业人数之间不存在长期的协整关系,其产值增长的同时并未带动就业人数的增加,反而对本已存在的剩余劳动力具有一定的挤出效应。第二和三产业对促进就业量的增长均具有积极作用,但第三产业吸纳劳动力就业的能力明显大于第二产业。

An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between the Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Chongqing

In the course of economic development,there is the close interaction relationship between the industrial structure and the employment structure.based on analyzing the evolution trend of the industrial structure and employment structure evolvement in Chongqing since the reform and opening policy,this paper analyzes the effects of the industrial structure on the employment structure by cointegration test and Generalized Least Squares method,and calculates the deviation degree of the industrial structure from the employment structure.The result shows that there is no co-integration relationship between primary industry and it’s quantity of employment.The primary industry has not promoted employment,instead has crowded out the existing rural labor force.The secondary industry and the tertiary industry have played an role in promoting employment,but the tertiary industry has higher of absorbing labor force than the secondary industry.