Trends in non-epithelial cancer incidence in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, 1961-1990

Trends in the incidence of non-epithelial cancers are particularly likely to reflect environmental carcinogens, since these malignancies are not commonly the targets of screening efforts, and have generally not been closely associated with life style factors such as cigarette smoking and diet. We used data from nation-wide cancer registries in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden to examine trends in non-epithelial cancers over the period 1961-1990. Linear regression analysis of age-standardized rates, and age-period-cohort models were fit to assess the temporal patterns within each country. Within each of the 3 countries, there was a similarly increasing incidence of both hematological malignancies and nervous system/bone/soft-tissue neoplasms. The increases were smallest in children and adolescents (ages 0-14), moderate among young and middle aged adults (ages 15-64), and most pronounced among the elderly (ages 65+). Age-period-cohort modeling suggested that the dominant factor in the increases were birth cohort effects. It is not clear what factors underlie this increase in incidence; it seems most likely that increases both in diagnostic efficiency and in exposure to environmental carcinogens play a role.