烤鸭中金黄色葡萄球菌生长模型的建立

选用修正的Gompertz（SGompertz）和修正的Logistic（Slogistic）作为一级生长模型，应用Origin 9.0软件分别拟合烤鸭中金黄色葡萄球菌在10、15、25、30、37 ℃的生长数据，并以此获得最大比生长速率（μmax）和迟滞期（λ）。在此基础上，采用平方根模型和二次多项式模型建立二级生长模型。结果表明，SGompertz模型拟合的R2值优于Slogistic模型。以SGompertz模型拟合得到的μmax建立平方根和二次多项式模型R2分别为0.942 3、0.947 1，偏差因子（Bf）分别为1.02和0.93，准确因子（Af）分别为1.18和1.37，表明采用μmax进行拟合时平方根模型的预测效果较好；以SGompertz模型拟合得到的λ建立的平方根和二次多项式模型R2分别为0.953 3、0.987 1，Bf分别为0.99和1.00，Af分别为1.11和1.06，表明采用λ进行拟合时二次多项式模型较好。

Predictive Models for the Growth of Staphylococcus aureus in Roast Duck

Modified Gompertz (SGompertz) and logistic (Slogistic) models were selected as the primary growth models to fit
the growth curves of Staphylococcus aureus in roast duck at various storage temperatures (10, 15, 25, 30 and 37 ℃). Using
the obtained specific growth rate (μmax) and lag time (λ), square root model and quadratic polynomial model were selected to
fit the secondary growth models of Staphylococcus aureus in roast duck. The results showed that the SGompertz model could
well describe the growth of Staphylococcus aureus at different temperatures, and therefore μmax and λ values obtained from it
were used to establish the secondary growth models. It was found that for the square root and quadratic polynomial models
based on μmax, R2 values were 0.942 3 and 0.947 1; Bf were 1.02 and 0.93; Af were 1.18 and 1.37, respectively, suggesting that
the square root model could be employed to predict the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in roast duck. For the square root
and quadratic polynomial models describing λ, R2 were 0.953 3 and 0.987 1; Bf were 0.99 and 1.00; Af were 1.11 and 1.06,
respectively, suggesting that the quadratic polynomial model could be employed to predict λ. This study can provide basic
information for quantitative microbial risk assessment of roast duck and other ready-to-eat cooked meat products.