基于个人投资视角反观房地产市场的宏观调控

对我国房地产市场进行实证分析，发现该市场具有分形特征以及房价与租金存在线性关系.在此前提下，应用实物期权理论对投资收益进行预估，建立个人房地产投资租转售决策分析模型.运用停时与数值模拟等方法求解，得到投资者执行租转售决策时的房价可行区间.继而定性分析房地产市场基本要素对房价可行区间产生的影响，得出了相关结论.最后利用模型结论对北京二手住宅房地产市场进行阶段性研究，反向剖析近年来政府对房地产市场所做的系列宏观调控政策.

Review macro-control of the real estate market based on the view of personal investment

According to empirical analysis to Chinese real estate market， this paper finds that the market has fractal feature and exists a kind of linear relation between house prices and rent. Under the premise of it， we use the real option theory to estimate investing earnings， then build the renting-selling conversion model and solve model by the stopping time and numerical simulation method， get the prices feasible sector of investors making renting-selling conversion decision. By analysing qualitatively the influence of Hurst exponent， growth rate of house prices， volatility， investment horizon and risk-free interest rate to feasible section of house prices， we draw a conclusion. In the end， this paper utilizes the conclusion to make periodic research to the market of second-hand residential real estate in Beijing and dissects a series of macro-control policy that the government made for the real estate market reversely .