考虑多能流传输与热惰性的综合能源系统序贯模拟可靠性评估

为提高综合能源系统可靠性评估的精度和实用性,提出一种考虑多能流传输与热惰性的综合能源系统序贯模拟可靠性评估方法。以冷热电三联供机组为核心构建综合能源系统结构模型,并进行计及损耗的综合能源多能潮流计算;在系统状态分析中考虑负荷重要程度和运行经济性,建立负荷削减优化模型;计及热网惰性及传输延时特性,对供热可靠性指标进行修正。基于运行模拟和序贯蒙特卡洛模拟方法对20节点综合能源系统进行可靠性评估,仿真结果验证了所提方法的有效性。

Reliability evaluation of integrated energy system considering multi-energy flow transmission and thermal inertia based on sequential simulation

In order to improve the accuracy and practicability of reliability evaluation of IES(Integrated Energy System),a reliability evaluation method considering multi-energy flow transmission and thermal inertia based on sequential simulation is proposed. The structural model of IES is built with CCHP(Combined Cooling, Heating and Power) unit as the core, and the multi-energy flow calculation considering loss is carried out. The load importance degree and operation economy are considered in system state analysis, and the optimal load reduction model is built. The reliability index of heat supply is modified considering the inertia and transmission delay characteristics of heating network. The reliability evaluation of a 20-bus IES is carried out based on operation simulation and sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and the simulative results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.