经济增长、产业贡献与农民收入增长波动——基于宏观收入分配计量模型与谱分析的实证

利用收入分配模型导出的计量模型,对改革开放以来(1978—2013年)农民收入增长波动及其宏观影响因素进行实证研究;使用谱分析方法,估计并比较农民收入增长与GDP及各产业增长的波动周期。结果表明:第一产业和第二产业的增长对农民收入增长有显著的贡献,但第三产业增长对农民收入增长影响不显著。农民收入增长波动的主周期与GDP及非农产业增长波动的主周期一致,农民收入增长波动的副周期则与农业产业增长波动的主周期一致。根据实证结果提出以下政策建议:稳定农民收入,一方面需稳定农民的农业收入,另一方面应提高农民工的教育水平和科学文化素质,促进农民进入第三产业就业以获得增收的来源。

Economic growth,industry contribution and the fluctuations in farmers' income growth in China: Empirical study based on macro-econometric model of income distribution and spectral analysis

This paper make an empirical analysis on the farmers'' income growth fluctuation and its macroeconomic influencing factors since 1978 (China started the reform and opening up policy).Econometrics results showed that the first and secondary industry growth had a significant impact on the growth of farmers'' income,but the tertiary industry was not significant.Spectral analysis showed that the main fluctuation cycle of s farmers'' income growth was consistent with the non-agricultural GDP growth,and the secondary fluctuations cycle of farmers'' income growth was consistent with the main cycle of the fluctuations of the first industry.To stable the income of the farmers,some measures should be taken,such as stabling the farmers'' agricultural income,improving the education level of migrant workers,and providing channels for farmers to access tertiary industry.