高油价的回顾和反思

本世纪初的油价变化可分为三个阶段：2006年及以前的缓涨，其后到2008年中期的猛涨和2008年后期的大跌。在石油供应相对紧张的背景下，美元贬值和大量热钱投机炒作是涨价的重要动因。而在2007～2008年中期投机炒作占更重要的地位。在讨论油价时要区分即期的表观油价和以不变美元值计的实际油价。美元贬值迫使表观油价上升，通货膨胀及其他诸多因素也会使油价有“合理的”上涨。本世纪初已进入“高油价时代”的说法是不合适的．作为其“基础”之一的石油枯竭论也与发展的实际相悖。从中长期看。我们必须认识到油价复杂的周期性起伏是客观规律．应冷静应对，坚持改革发展，坚持较高的投入。在做规划和经济评价时可以将周期的均价作为“影子油价”。

Review and Reflection of High Oil Price

The fluctuations of oil prices in the early twenty-first century can be divided into three periods： drifting rise in 2006 and the period before 2006 ,skyrocketed rise from after 2006 to the middle of 2008, and sharp fall in the late 2008.Under the background of relatively short oil supply,the devaluation of U.S. dollars and speculations in huge amount of hot money became a major touching factor of the fluctuations of oil prices,whereas speculations in the middle of 2007-2008 played a more important role.In discussing oil prices,it is necessary to differentiate between spot apparent oil price and real oil price estimated according to constant dollar value.The devaluation of U.S.dollars may compel apparent oil price to rise and inflation as well as other various factors may also bring about a ＂rational rise＂ of oil price.It is not appropriate to say that the early twenty-first century has entered a ＂high oil price times＂ and the view of oil exhaustion as one basic reason for high oil price times also runs counter to the reality of development.From a medium- long point of view,we have to see the complicated cyclical rise and fall of oil price as an objective law and should soberly cope with it,persist in reforms and development and keep at a relatively high investment. In planning and making economic evaluation,we can take cyclical mean price as ＂shadow oil price＂.